Cyprus-Forum.com

[Tim Drayton]

Certain comments contained in the US National Intelligence Council's report entitled 2025 Global Trends

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Gl ... Report.pdf

appear to be relevant to the discussion in this thread, so I quote them below:

p33

The question of Turkey’s EU membership
will be a test of Europe’s outward focus
between now and 2025. Increasing doubts
about Turkey’s chances are likely to slow its
implementation of political and human rights
reforms. Any outright rejection risks wider
repercussions, reinforcing arguments in the
Muslim world—including among Europe’s
Muslim minorities—about the incompatibility
of the West and Islam. Crime could be the
gravest threat inside Europe as Eurasian
transnational organizations—flush from
involvement in energy and mineral
concerns—become more powerful and
broaden their scope. One or more
governments in Eastern or Central Europe
could fall prey to their domination.
Europe will remain heavily dependent on
Russia for energy in 2025, despite efforts to
promote energy efficiency and renewable
energy and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Varying levels of dependence, differing
perspectives on Russia’s democratic maturity
and economic intentions, and failure to
achieve consensus on Brussels’ role are
hampering nascent efforts to develop common
EU polices on energy diversification and
security. In the absence of a collective
approach that would reduce Russia’s
leverage, this dependence will foster constant
attentiveness to Moscow’s interests by key
countries, including Germany and Italy, who
see Russia as a reliable supplier. Europe
could pay a price for its heavy dependence,
especially if Russian firms are unable to fulfill
contract commitments because of
underinvestment in their natural gas fields or
if growing corruption and organized criminal
involvement in the Eurasian energy sector
spill over to infect Western business interests.

p35 -

Indonesia, Turkey and a post-clerically run
Iran—states that are predominantly Islamic,
but which fall outside the Arab core—appear
well-situated for growing international roles.
A growth-friendly macro-economic policy
climate would allow their natural economic
endowments to flourish. In the case of Iran,
radical political reform will be necessary.

[…]

Turkey’s recent economic track record of
increased growth, the vitality of Turkey’s
emerging middle class and its geostrategic
locale raise the prospect of a growing regional
role in the Middle East. Economic
weaknesses such as its heavy dependence on
external energy sources may help to spur it
toward a greater international role as Turkish
authorities seek to develop their ties with
energy suppliers—including close neighbors
Russia and Iran—and bolster its position as a
transit hub. Over the next 15 years, Turkey’s
most likely course involves a blending of
Islamic and nationalist strains, which could
serve as a model for other rapidly
modernizing countries in the Middle East.

[MrH]

Viewpoint, please read my next Posting called "Northern Cyprus and Northern Ireland", you may find it interesting? Thanks!

[paliometoxo]

when does turkey have until there is no chance her joining Europe? was it 2009?

[Tim Drayton]

when does turkey have until there is no chance her joining Europe? was it 2009?

There is no final deadline that I am aware of. Most commentators (including Paphitis) are talking of a fifteen-year accession process at the least.

[BirKibrisli]

when does turkey have until there is no chance her joining Europe? was it 2009?

There is no final deadline that I am aware of. Most commentators (including Paphitis) are talking of a fifteen-year accession process at the least.

There is no final deadline. But I cannot see Turkey satisfying the EU conditions for at least 50 years...Unless things change drastically after the present global financial crisis which might force Turkey's hand...And who knows if the EU would still be there in 50 years time?....

[Get Real!]

And who knows if the EU would still be there in 50 years time?....

By then everyone will probably want to join the Chinese global financial union and the US will have become the protectorate of the Japanese who own them.

[Get Real!]

Viewpoint, please read my next Posting called "Northern Cyprus and Northern Ireland", you may find it interesting? Thanks!

How did I miss this? Your powerful thread was a huge success at convincing us to give up...

[BirKibrisli]

And who knows if the EU would still be there in 50 years time?....

By then everyone will probably want to join the Chinese global financial union and the US will have become the protectorate of the Japanese who own them.

And the great religious wars will be between Hindus ,Sikhs ,and Buddhists!!!!

[CopperLine]

when does turkey have until there is no chance her joining Europe? was it 2009?

There is no final deadline that I am aware of. Most commentators (including Paphitis) are talking of a fifteen-year accession process at the least.

See http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/e50015.htm Especially the Commission comment that "The Commission stresses that accession cannot take place before 2014."

Typically when accession negotiations have been opened, they are undertaken chapter by chapter. See http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l14536.htm on how accession of new members is supposed to be conducted.

This link gives a reasonable overview of the state of negotiations
http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/eu-turkey-relations/article-129678 especially :

* 29 Nov. 2006: The Commission recommended to partially suspend membership negotiations with Turkey due to lack of progress on the Cyprus issue.
* 11 Dec. 2006: EU foreign ministers decided to follow the Commission's recommendations and suspend talks with Turkey on eight of the 35 negotiating areas.
* 26 June 2007: Two further negotiating chapters, on statistics and financial control, were opened, however the opening of the chapter on economic and monetary union was taken off the agenda.
* 22 July 2007: Erdogan's ruling AKP gets re-elected with 47% of votes at early Parliamentary elections.
* 24 Oct.: Parliament issued its annual resolution on the state of Turkey's membership bid.
* 6 Nov.: Commission published its annual enlargement report on Turkey's progress in membership talks. The Commission recommended not to begin further negotiations on matters of justice and basic rights as long as Turkish criminal law is not reformed.
* Over the coming weeks further negotiations in the spheres of health and transport are to be opened.
* The negotiation process is said to be “open-ended”. Negotiations are expected to take at least 10-15 years.

As part of this Turkey had already agreed to a pre-accession partnership strategy. See http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/e40111.htm and for the actual agreement http://eur-lex.europa.eu/smartapi/cgi/sga_doc?smartapi!celexplus!prod!DocNumber&lg=en&type_doc=Decision&an_doc=2006&nu_doc=35


As a matter of interest you'll find the EU position on supporting northern Cyprus here : http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/e50012.htm

[Kifeas]

As a matter of interest you'll find the EU position on supporting northern Cyprus here : http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/e50012.htm

Because CopperLine deliberately (and I am beyond doubt he did this deliberately) tried to mislead people in this forum that the above website reflects the EU position on "northern Cyprus," I would like to bring to the attention of the forum the fact that the content of the above website doesn't reflect the exact and official views of the EU. Terms and /or notions such as 'Northern Cyprus" and "citizens of Northern Cyprus," do not exist and are not used by the EU in any of its official documents! Instead, the terms used are those of “areas of the Republic of Cyprus in which the Government of the Republic of Cyprus does not exercise effective control” and “Turkish Cypriot community,” respectively! If one clicks on the link at the bottom of the above website -quoted by CopperLine, under the paragraph titled as “RELATED ACTS,” will be directed to the official EU document defined as “Council Regulation (EC) No 389/2006.” There, one will come across the legal and official EU terminology.

The fact that the above website doesn’t necessarily reflect the official EU position on the “northern part of Cyprus,” is also verified by the legal disclaimer the same website provides on this link (Important legal notice,) the content of which speaks by itself!