Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

Look at it another way. The Cyprus problem is solved tomorrow, the troops are removed the day after, and Turkey recognises Cyprus and opens ports and airports to Cypriot ships and planes, does that mean Turkey is home free?

Nope! That is when the REAL problems start.

[Viewpoint]

Look at it another way. The Cyprus problem is solved tomorrow, the troops are removed the day after, and Turkey recognises Cyprus and opens ports and airports to Cypriot ships and planes, does that mean Turkey is home free?

Nope! That is when the REAL problems start.

And we are back to square one and all this suffering has been for nothing.

[MrH]

It would be a dream if GC Controlled Cyprus used its Veto on Turkey, which we all know would NEVER happen - the GCs would never sink all of their ships with one swoop!

Their Dream of Enosis would end in a flash! And Christofias knows it!

[Nikitas]

"all this suffering has been for nothing."

You mean that it was all done so Turkey could join the EU. My above post refers to Turkey's real problems in joining the EU. Cyprus is not a problem, there are many other bigger obstacles in the way.

[Paphitis]

"all this suffering has been for nothing."

You mean that it was all done so Turkey could join the EU. My above post refers to Turkey's real problems in joining the EU. Cyprus is not a problem, there are many other bigger obstacles in the way.

How is Cyprus not the problem if there is no solution?

Nikitas, I think you have things arse about. It is Cyprus that will be the major issue should there be no solution, and not Turkey's internal problems.

If it were not for Cyprus, Turkey could expect EU entry by 2015.

Turkey started entry talks in 2005 along with Croatia but the major stumbling blocs remain including Turkey’s failure to normalize relations with Republic of Cyprus, which became member of the European Union in 2004. Croatia, as compared with Turkey is now set to join the 27-member bloc in 2011 and has already concluded most of the accession chapters. On the contrary EU has frozen progress on as many as eight chapters with Turkey because Ankara does not allow Greek Cyprus vessels to use Turkish ports, saying it would not do so until and unless the Turkish Cypriots are given their due rights and the world community ends their isolation. In the coming days, the EU may freeze more chapters as France, which favours a sort of ‘privileged partnership’ status for Turkey rather than full membership, has warned Ankara against such an action if it does not open its ports for Greek Cypriots vessels.

Source: The Post

France is starting to get tough. Whether this helps our cause or not is another issue.

[Kikapu]

Tim,

The reality is that Turkey is a fast developing country. At the time of the invasion in 1974 it had a per-capita GDP of 928 dollars; the equivalent figure for 2006 was 7,500. That is an eight-fold increase in just over thirty years.

I am sure that most people are familiar with the predictions made in a recent report by Goldman Sachs that, by 2050, Turkey will have a per capita GDP of 60,000 dollars

These figures you gave are hardly anything to write home about. From 1974 to 2006, the inflation factor in Turkey was anywhere from 80% to about 12% today, therefore the purchasing power of the $928 GDP US Dollars in 1974 has not increased too much and it will barely keep in pace in 2050 at $60,000 GDP Dollars with today's $7,500 GDP Dollars at today's 12% inflation rate.

The most expensive petrol I have ever bought in the world so far, was in Turkey 4 years ago at $10 US Dollars a gallon. When my sister and her husband drove up from Ankara to Antalya to visit me 3 years ago in their family car, it cost them $200 US Dollars in petrol to make the round trip of about 500 miles / 800 kilometers.

These figures are in US dollars not Turkish lira, so inflation in Turkish lira terms is irrelevant.

It doesn't matter if they are in Bananas, US Dollars or Turkish Liras, Tim. Inflation is inflation of that country and the US Dollars as an International currency is used to make the calculation, where GDP's, GDP's (PPP), NGP's reflect the values of that nation's currencies worth. You are not saying are you, that in 2050, the $60,000 US Dollars per capita will be obtained based on ZERO inflation from now until 2050, are you.? But aside from that, even if we take the figures you have given us in US Dollars, the comparisons are made with purchasing power in the US versus, in this case, Turkey, which it would cost more, by as much as 50% more to buy the same item in Turkey than as it does to buy it in the US. Petrol was one of those examples. I do not claim to be an economist, but just on surface, this is how I interpret the figures you given us.

Are you seriously telling me that you did not notice a huge difference in living standards in Turkey when you went there three years ago compared to what you witnessed in the sixties?

Well of course some things have changed in Turkey since the 1960's when I first went to live there. The rich have gotten richer, a small rise in the middle class and the overwhelming poor basically remained where they were, even though their living standards rose, but their overall situation has not. They are able to exist to get by only because families tend to stay together so to pool their earnings, but their disposable income is non existence, therefore they are stuck where they are with very little hope to move up the economic ladder into the middle class.

In the area where I used to live, on the hills of Ankara, there were only few homes back then, but now people are living on top of each other in a very disorganized and unplanned developments. Those who had some land and development took on them, made out pretty good and have reached the middle class level, but for the average person on the street, they are just existing, which is no different than any other developing countries in the world. I have a cousin who is a lawyer and another who is a doctor, and they are hardly considered to be living a middle class life. They just exist with the necessities of life. Neither one can afford to travel abroad for a vacation. Lawyer cousin was hard pressed to find $5,000 US Dollars for a medical treatment she needed not too long ago. I don't know if you know Tim, but professional people in Turkey are not covered by the National Health service, and not certain if they can even buy private health insurance. In the cousins situation, it was "cash on delivery" basis.

The tourist industry with mega hotels, which are tops most of the time, can be a misleading in what the tourist get with their foreign money in Turkey, and how the average Turk lives. To most, it is a struggle and I do not need to tell you since you have spent more time there than me. There are many aspects of Turkey where it is very modern, but a country where labour is cheap, the economic ladder for success to most are just not there. Most of the wealth are in the hands of very few with some middle class thrown in for decoration, but the rest belong in the "developing world" status.

[Oracle]

It would be a dream if GC Controlled Cyprus used its Veto on Turkey, which we all know would NEVER happen - the GCs would never sink all of their ships with one swoop!

Their Dream of Enosis would end in a flash! And Christofias knows it!

The GCs would not have to use their veto against Turkey, as has already been explained to you by many here. Turkey by its very nature, non-recognition of another EU-member state, government, violations etc is not yet sophisticated enough for the EU.

Even now, people like you MrH, think Cyprus has a "Dream for Enosis". That is the backward outdated style of thinking which is keeping Turkey out of the EU, and not a veto!

[observer]

It would be a dream if GC Controlled Cyprus used its Veto on Turkey, which we all know would NEVER happen - the GCs would never sink all of their ships with one swoop!

Their Dream of Enosis would end in a flash! And Christofias knows it!

The GCs would not have to use their veto against Turkey, as has already been explained to you by many here. Turkey by its very nature, non-recognition of another EU-member state, government, violations etc is not yet sophisticated enough for the EU.

Even now, people like you MrH, think Cyprus has a "Dream for Enosis". That is the backward outdated style of thinking which is keeping Turkey out of the EU, and not a veto!

I mostly think that you are right about the GCs dream for Enosis, but can you blame even the most trusting of people having a small amount of suspicion that an idea that has been fervently fought for since the begining of the nineteen century, or even earlier, with many lives lost, should suddenly been disavowed the moment Turkish troops made it impossible to achieve.

For this reason, most TCs would prefer to keep Turkey as a guarantor.

[Oracle]

It would be a dream if GC Controlled Cyprus used its Veto on Turkey, which we all know would NEVER happen - the GCs would never sink all of their ships with one swoop!

Their Dream of Enosis would end in a flash! And Christofias knows it!

The GCs would not have to use their veto against Turkey, as has already been explained to you by many here. Turkey by its very nature, non-recognition of another EU-member state, government, violations etc is not yet sophisticated enough for the EU.

Even now, people like you MrH, think Cyprus has a "Dream for Enosis". That is the backward outdated style of thinking which is keeping Turkey out of the EU, and not a veto!

I mostly think that you are right about the GCs dream for Enosis, but can you blame even the most trusting of people having a small amount of suspicion that an idea that has been fervently fought for since the begining of the nineteen century, or even earlier, with many lives lost, should suddenly been disavowed the moment Turkish troops made it impossible to achieve.

For this reason, most TCs would prefer to keep Turkey as a guarantor.

I don't think it was the Turkish troops which made Enosis impossible to achieve but the mindset of the GCs who had abandoned this notion once full self-determination became the prime goal after 1960. This was demonstrated by their strong opposition and fight against the coupists. All the evidence was there, and not because of some personal act of opportunism by Turkey. Finally the RoC is stronger than ever as an independent state but healthily allied to Greece, as also to many other countries, and it is Turkey which stands alone, alienated because of its present stance to the RoC.

Furthermore, as you rightly suggest, it is the TCs that are failing to appreciate this fundamental difference in the "here and now", and what was a historical blip, albeit it lengthy.

[Tim Drayton]

Look at it another way. The Cyprus problem is solved tomorrow, the troops are removed the day after, and Turkey recognises Cyprus and opens ports and airports to Cypriot ships and planes, does that mean Turkey is home free?

Nope! That is when the REAL problems start.

My point precisely. Europe is not ready to admit Turkey yet, so there is little incentive for Turkey to pull the troops out and recognise the RoC now. So she has every incentive to stall for as long as possible rather than throwing away some of the best bargaining chips in her hand. It is a big game and you can only expect each party to play their hand to the greatest advantage.