Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

Tim,

These predictors of Goldman Sachs and others, did not predict the current financial crisis even though they were involved and dealing with sub prime mortgages all day every day for years. So I do not doubt their political neutrality, just their overall competence. If I remember rightly, the same "experts" were predicting that by the end of this year Greece would be in dire straits and Greeks would be leaving the country in droves to work overseas. Instead, the USA almost went bust.

The rise of the Turkish economy has been touted for years. I remember interviewing chaps from International Harvester in the 70s and they too were counting on Turkey being a better longer term growth market than the whole of the Gulf. They could see more construction in Turkey, which has yet to exceed that of the Gulf.

If the per capita income in Turkey will be 60 000 USD by 2050, how much will it be in other nations like Germany and Sweden?

Looking at the pattern in Turkey, what is visible is a course like Spain. The Spaniards started as a center of cheap copies, made in locally owned firms, ie Seat. They then moved on to copies made by foreign owned firms, ie Opel made in Spain, to a modest level of innovation which in no way competes with the real innovators. The model of the cheap manufacturing center for foreign designed goods is unilikely to change without local grown innovation and technology.

[Tim Drayton]

Answers to your questions:

Perhaps you could explain to us all, how it is possible for Turkey to be admitted into the EU, whilst still illegally occupying EU territory and ignoring countless UN resolutions calling for the withdrawal of Turkish Troops?

It is not possible.

You can also explain to us how it can be possible for Turkey to be admitted into the EU, whilst still not bilaterally recognising an existing EU member or allowing for the free movement of Cypriot registered vessels and aircraft into her ports and airspace?

It is not possible

The veto is a fundamental right of each and every EU member

Correct

If you had made any attempt whatsoever to understand my arguments, you would not be asking the above questions. Believe the fairy story. Whatever makes you happy.

[Nikitas]

The fairy story being in two parts, part one where Cyprus on her own vetoes Turkish entry, and part two where Turkey enters the EU as a full member any time soon.

Whatever the main body of the story is, the end result is that Turkey will not enter the EU unless there are drastic changes inside Turkey.

[Tim Drayton]

Tim,

These predictors of Goldman Sachs and others, did not predict the current financial crisis even though they were involved and dealing with sub prime mortgages all day every day for years. So I do not doubt their political neutrality, just their overall competence. If I remember rightly, the same "experts" were predicting that by the end of this year Greece would be in dire straits and Greeks would be leaving the country in droves to work overseas. Instead, the USA almost went bust.

The rise of the Turkish economy has been touted for years. I remember interviewing chaps from International Harvester in the 70s and they too were counting on Turkey being a better longer term growth market than the whole of the Gulf. They could see more construction in Turkey, which has yet to exceed that of the Gulf.

If the per capita income in Turkey will be 60 000 USD by 2050, how much will it be in other nations like Germany and Sweden?

Looking at the pattern in Turkey, what is visible is a course like Spain. The Spaniards started as a center of cheap copies, made in locally owned firms, ie Seat. They then moved on to copies made by foreign owned firms, ie Opel made in Spain, to a modest level of innovation which in no way competes with the real innovators. The model of the cheap manufacturing center for foreign designed goods is unilikely to change without local grown innovation and technology.

I tend to agree with you. As I said, I read the Goldman Sachs report and found its basic methodological assumptions suspect. How can you predict what the world will be like 42 years from now, anyway? Could anyone have possibly imagined in 1966 what the world would be like today?

Even so, does it not make sense to have a game plan ready in the eventuality that 1) Turkey's EU accession process ends in failure and 2) Turkey nevertheless continues to grow and exercises increased regional clout?

This makes more sense to me than engaging in the delusion that Cyprus can exercise some kind of veto and the door will sudenly shut in Turkey's face, leaving it to collapse. The only thing that Cyprus can veto, after all, is the closing of a particular chapter, not the fact that Turkey has in principle been accepted as a candidate member. It looks to me as if Europe wants to keep Turkey waiting for some time yet, and this makes Cyprus' veto pretty much irrelevant.

[Paphitis]

Answers to your questions:

Perhaps you could explain to us all, how it is possible for Turkey to be admitted into the EU, whilst still illegally occupying EU territory and ignoring countless UN resolutions calling for the withdrawal of Turkish Troops?

It is not possible.

You can also explain to us how it can be possible for Turkey to be admitted into the EU, whilst still not bilaterally recognising an existing EU member or allowing for the free movement of Cypriot registered vessels and aircraft into her ports and airspace?

It is not possible

The veto is a fundamental right of each and every EU member

Correct

If you had made any attempt whatsoever to understand my arguments, you would not be asking the above questions. Believe the fairy story. Whatever makes you happy.

Don't be so daft.

I understand your argument.

You stated this in a previos post:

It is also possible that Turkey will be left in limbo for a long time to come, its application neither accepted nor rejected. I think this would suit Europe's interests very well. Of course Cyprus can prevent Turkey's ultimate accession as long as part of Cyprus remains occupied. On the other hand, Cyprus cannot absolutely reject Turkey's status as a candidate member. The status quo on the island could quite conceivably continue indefinitely for as long as Turkey is left waiting in the wings by the EU, and in the meantime Turkey may gain in strength as a regional power and the demographic changes that have been brought about in the north of Cyprus can only work in Turkey's favour. All I am saying is that the power of veto should not be seen as some kind of magic wand which in itself will solve the problem.

You seem to think that Turkey's application will go on forever. This is unrealistic.

There has to be a time limit. The popular belief is that Turkey will become an EU member in about 15 years, provided that there is a solution to the Cyprus Problem and she undergoes drastic reform on the home front.

Turkey's application is not indefinite. Turkey will either meet each and every EU benchmark, thus becoming an EU member, or her application will be eventually terminated. This does not preclude Turkey from re-applying down the track. But again, Turkey will still need to meet all benchmarks in order to gain entry into the EU.

Cyprus was instrumental in closing the 8 chapters, so this should be a clear sign to Turkey that she will not become an EU member until certain EU criteria are met, such as opening her airspace and ports to Cypriot registered vessels and aircraft.

[Tim Drayton]

You seem to think that Turkey's application will go on forever. This is unrealistic.

There has to be a time limit. The popular belief is that Turkey will become an EU member in about 15 years, provided that there is a solution to the Cyprus Problem and she undergoes drastic reform on the home front.

Turkey's application is not indefinite. Turkey will either meet each and every EU benchmark, thus becoming an EU member, or her application will be eventually terminated. This does not preclude Turkey from re-applying down the track. But again, Turkey will still need to meet all benchmarks in order to gain entry into the EU.

Cyprus was instrumental in closing the 8 chapters, so this should be a clear sign to Turkey that she will not become an EU member until certain EU criteria are met, such as opening her airspace and ports to Cypriot registered vessels and aircraft.

I was challenging one of your basic premises which you expressed earlier in this thread as:

"They [the EU] will shut their doors on Turkey when Cyprus or someone else vetos Turkey's bid."

This is contradicted by item two of a list of the elements of the negotiating framework shown on the EU's own website:

http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/ ... cle-129678

• At the end of the talks, should Turkey fail to qualify in full for all obligations of EU membership as specified in the Copenhagen criteria, EU member states would still ensure that Ankara is “fully anchored in the European structures through the strongest possible bond”.

Turkey is already in a customs union with the EU, and the continuation of this customs union is in no way dependent on the success of the current accession process; the above quote bears ample testimony to that. In short, I am not disputing whether Cyprus has the right of veto, I am disputing the claim that Cyprus can somehow exercise this veto in a way that will lead to the doors being firmly shut in Turkey's face.

[Tim Drayton]

There has to be a time limit. The popular belief is that Turkey will become an EU member in about 15 years, provided that there is a solution to the Cyprus Problem and she undergoes drastic reform on the home front.

It is all relative, but Harold Wilson once said that a week is a long time in politics. So how long is 15 years? A great deal can happen in that time, especially now that we are witnessing the onset of a global economic crisis.

If you consider that Turkey's efforts to join the EU date back to 1963, that makes 45 years already. I think it is perfectly possible for the process to be strung out for several decades more. I don't believe that the negotiating framework envisages any firm deadline.

What we see going on is a kind of game of bluff.

Europe says, "Take your troops off the soil of our member state, and, while you are at it, recognise that state."

Turkey replies, "Why should I?"

"Because you want to get in our club and we won't let you in until you do."

"Tell you what. You let me into the club tomorrow, and we will do what you say."

"No, you can't come in tomorrow. You aren't ready yet."

"OK, in that case, we will keep our troops where they are and we won't recognise that state of yours just yet."

This stalemate could potentially continue for a long time. It could well suit Europe's interests in that she neither has the stomach to accept Turkey as a full member nor can she afford to reject such a strategically important neighbour.

I therefore do not believe the Cypriot veto to be the magic wand that some would claim it to be.

[-mikkie2-]

The Cypriot veto would only be of relevance towards the end of Turkish accession negotiations. If there is certainty that Turkey is fulfilling the criteria then this is where the Cypriot veto would take effect. This could be too late anyway. In 15 years time the north of Cyprus will be unrecognisable and exercising the veto now is pointless. Once Turkey becomes dependant on EU accession, that is where the veto is of relevance. In the meantime, it is a game of cat and mouse.

[EPSILON]

Paphitis we should go further. No more aid to the illegal state. Why have we agreed for them to get a grant from the EU.

We should have vetoed that when we had a chance. We should also tell TC's that none of them will be granted ROC citizenship until the cyprus problem is resolved.

I've had enough of the nicely nicely approach. Let's make them suffer as they have made us suffer.

ROC citizenshiop must be denied for an other very important reason- no one entitled to a citizenship at the time he is continuing to pay taxes and follow the rules of the occupation army.If someone wants the ROC citizenship must fulfill also the obligations not only the rights of this citizenship/

[EPSILON]

Paphitis we should go further. No more aid to the illegal state. Why have we agreed for them to get a grant from the EU.

We should have vetoed that when we had a chance. We should also tell TC's that none of them will be granted ROC citizenship until the cyprus problem is resolved.

I've had enough of the nicely nicely approach. Let's make them suffer as they have made us suffer.

ROC citizenshiop must be denied for an other very important reason- no one entitled to a citizenship at the time he is continuing to pay taxes and follow the rules of the occupation army.If someone wants the ROC citizenship must fulfill also the obligations not only the rights of this citizenship/