DT. wrote:the problem is that there is a threat hanging over us that if we do not agree this time, then there will be a gradual taiwanisation of the north.
Had we had a national council with some imagination in it then we should have turned the tables on this and turned Turkey into the threatened one. I'll explain.....
If the north gets recognised it would be the worst possible outcome for Turkey.
Greece and Cyprus join in a united front with no motive whatsoever to allow either of the turkish states to join the EU.
A Greek garrison gets posted permanently in the south 70 miles form Turkey, the south changes its name to The hellenic Republic of Cyprus and all Pan-Cyprian encompassing policies get dropped with a 9ft high wall positioned on the green line.
Meanwhile the north now permanently out of the EU and "independent" of Turkey will still have to be provided with handouts from Turkey, probably indefinitely.
- Turkey will lose any bargaining chips it has in the Eastern Med and all Cypriot continental shelf rights it so vigorously demands.
- Cyprus will be fortified like Israel, since it now has a direct border with an unfriendly nation. If the S300 scenario would be repeated this time there would be no leverage of the international community over the Cypriot govt to remove these missiles. meaning that we could basically station any military system we like 70 miles off the coast of Turkey.
- Turkey would now be "choked" in the Aegean by Greece and by Cyprus in the south. A strong Cypriot navy would take full advantage of its position.
Concluding, the threat should be to Turkey" If we don't agree something acceptable to both sides then you're gonna have a new neighbour off your south coast."
An interesting scenario, which could happen and could have happened 20 or so years ago. But today? My own guess is that self interest is making Greece (EU too) form stronger links with Turkey all the time and that Cyprus is becoming more and more irrelevant to Greece (and even more so the EU).
I'm not saying that things couldn't change, but the direction today seems to be paying lip service and emotional empty words to GCs, and real business with Turkey.