Tim Drayton wrote:BirKibrisli wrote:I am coming to the conclusion that Erdogan and his cronies have only one ambition left : to stay in power for as long they can, simply for personal gain...When I say personal that includes all their relatives and party bosses and their cronies who are slowly gaining the lion's share of the fruits of the fast growing Turkish economy...they will of course keep up with the rhetoric and demagogy re their (Warmly ) Islamic agenda for the sake of their voters,but any principles they had regarding the islamisation of the politics have long been abandoned,I believe..
And I still believe that they have a natural anti-European bias,and they are not sincere about joining the EU...They are using the process as an insurance policy,probably the only one they have against the Military..
I am not sure about some of these statements.
Sure, Erdoğan and his cronies have grown fond of power and the trappings that this brings and will do all they can to cling on to it. However, I am convinced that at heart their party embodies political Islam; if Bin Laden represents the extreme wing of this movement, the AKP is its moderate, acceptable face. Therein lies a contradiction. Since article 4 of the constitution of the Republic of Turkey states that the first three articles are unalterable, there is no parliamentary road to an Islamic state. They are pretty much stuck politically and can only hope to apply "neighbourhood pressure" (mahalle baskısı) in the hope of making Turkey more Islamic in social terms.
I believe that political Islam is ultimately doomed to failure worldwide; most people have simple, mundane aspirations such as improving their standard of living and this movement can't really deliver. It is only a matter of time before it ends in the dustbin of history, depositing Erdoğan and co there as well.
As to the AKP's European aspirations, I used to think this was a form of "takiyye" until I read an article by one of the most respected columnists (I can't remember which one) in the Radikal newspaper which attempted to explain the apparent contradiction of Islamic fundamentalism in Turkey actively promoting EU accession - a policy that would have been anathema to the old-school Islamist Erbakan. He argued that it was the increasing influence of the so-called Anatolian tigers - the families that had prospered as a result of industrialisation in some parts of the conservative Anatolian heartland - that fomred the base of the AKP's support. These people support traditional Islamic values, but at the same time want to grow their businesses and thus see EU accession as opening up potential new markets. You should also remember, a view also frequently promoted by Radikal columnists such as Haluk Şahin, that the AKP is essentially a coalition of Islamists and Liberals. The islamic vote alone could never bring a party to power in Turkey and Erdoğan's political genius lay in his ability to widen the platform of the Islamist party and bring other forces on board. The Liberals are strong supporters of EU accession, so the party has to remain pro-European to keep these people on board.
That's my current take on things, anyway.
Your comments about economic gains make sense of course...But they can get most of the economic benefits without becoming a full member of the EU...A priveleged member status,or whatever they call it,would probably be enough...I am also worried about Erdogan's personality...He is more authoritarian than democratic...He is not comfortable with real democratic values...That goes for most of his party bosses...They have little respect or understanding for European style democracy...This is another reason why I think they are not sincere on this issue...
