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Documentary about Cyprus on mainland Turkish state TV

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:03 am

halil wrote:Your one and this one it is not same news Tim.


Maybe not, Halil, but I have read the report that you gave the link for, and all it does is say: "Chrysostomos said this and Chrysostomos said that" without quoting any source at all. This is surely very sloppy journalism. I think evrybody knows that Archbishop Chrysostomos has adopted quite a hard-line stance towards the current negotiations. Even if these are more recent statements than those in the report I quoted, there is nothing materially new about the statements he is reported as having made in the article you have referred to. What is the big deal?
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Postby Kifeas » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:51 am

Bananiot wrote:Thanks Tim for the translation. I also think that there are worrying messages coming from AKP. The recent hardening stance on the Cyprob as seen at the negotiation table (probably to the dismay of Talat) highlights this turn on behalf of Erdogan who probably thinks that this is not the right time to solve the Cyprus issue. If this is the case, there is no way the Turkish Cypriots will stand behind and vote for any solution plan, in their majority at least. In 2003-2004, with the help of Erdogan, a working majority was forged in favour of solution, but of course we were blinded at the time by the bigots on our side who would rather see partition than a Cyprus run by Grrek and Turkish Cypriots. Erdogan now can affort to be complacent with the generals and the deep state by giving them a bigger bite and an issue of national interests, such as the cyprob, would be enough to keep them happy, once things return to their way of thinking.

It also appears that Talat is on the way out and of course we shall have Denktash in front of us at the negotiating table, probably in the shape of Ertogruloglu. Things are very gloomy to say the least, and to suggest that the EU will not allow Ertogruloglu to act as the leader of the Turkish Cypriots, like a forumer wrote earlier today, shows how far we stand from reality.


Very brilliant analysis indeed, Bananiot! And since you have now convinced us that solving the Cyprus issue has nothing to do with Turkey been somehow given the stick, in order to be made to change its entire ideological attitude towards the way it perceives itself in relation to Cyprus, the region and the world in general, but it all has to do with Erdogan's or any other Turkish PM's "mood of the day;" and since in 2004 he was in a good mood because his “hannumisa” (hanim) was allowing him to take her from behind, but somehow nowadays she is refusing to do so and that is why he is in a bad mood and doesn't want a solution in Cyprus; why don't you instead take her place in his bed, so that we may again become lucky and catch him on a good mood, and have "again" the "chance" for a "lucky" solution in Cyprus?

How more ridiculous can you get, Bananiot, I wonder!
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Postby Bananiot » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:49 am

Just shut it Kifeas but what else can one expect from someone who has finally seen Denktash's truth?
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Postby Kifeas » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:14 pm

halil wrote:Tim ,
Tümay Tuğyan works at Bayrak TV ....

I hope you can translate below one as well for forum members . most of the GC's forum members knows about this report but TC's at abroad or other forum members does not read greek or turkish ...

tell them what Prist is thinking as well ......



Halil, let me try to again re-explain to you a few things, and hopefully this time you will somehow be able to understand them, if such a thing is ever possible. History, Halil, is like a cycle. If you someone is not able to properly read and interpret history, he is bound to repeat the same mistakes that him or others did in the past.

From 1968 – 1974 (before the events) we (the two communities) were also negotiating for a solution. We (GCs) thought we had the upper hand, simply because the TCs have abandoned the RoC and had locked themselves in the enclaves in order to realize their partition dream, but somehow they became hostages to their own delusions and ended up suffering in isolation and near financial devastation. This fact the GC side thought it had given us an advantage, which (we thought) allowed us to negotiate from a strong position and dictate all or most of our terms. Clerides, at the time, managed to extract from Denktash quite a lot of concessions, Makarios however, acting under the fear of some extremist nationalists among the GC side who wanted “all or nothing,” but also under his own prejudices, was refusing to close the deal and wanted more and more concessions from the TCs. To this end, a deal was not closed, and in 1974, the tables were turned upside down.

We (GCs) were now in a disadvantage situation, and the TCs and Turkey in an obvious advantage position, occupying almost 37% of Cyprus and us (GCs) having 200,000 refugees from the north. Under these circumstances, the Turkish /TC side managed after 1974 to extract from the GC side too many concessions, with the most important been our acceptance to transform Cyprus and the RoC from unitary state into a bi-zonal federative one, with one area (zone) to remain under TC majority habitation and local internal majority administration. Such concessions were unthinkable and entirely non-negotiable by the GCs, before 1974, unthinkable by your side to have ever achieved under the pre-1974 and the pre-1960 realities, and unthinkable by any other people in a similar situation, across the globe.

However, instead of your side making an example and learning from our (GC) pre-1974 mistakes, you have come up in exactly the same and even worst way, insisting for 35 long years in the same “all or nothing” policy. So far, you have gotten northing, and it seems you will continue getting nothing, until something like 1974 happens and the tables are turned once more upside down. Like us before 1974, you thought -and still keep thinking- that you have an advantage over us, and that we are the ones negotiating with our back against the wall, exactly like we used to think before 1974. This diluted and mistaken policy has backfired against your side already once, in 2004, when we have managed to enter the EU without a solution, and with the whole of Cyprus under the de jure sovereignty of the RoC. This event alone has leveled the playing field, and whatever advantage you thought you had has now become extinct. Yet, you continue the same illegitimate “all or nothing” ideology and policy, without being able to learn anything from history.

The likelihood is that you will continue along the same diluted ideas, because your leadership, your educational system and your “motherland” do not allow you to see further than your nose. Unless by then you come to your senses, stop making illegitimate claims and asking for the impossible, the time will come that the tables will again be turned upside-down, like they did in 1974. When this will come, do not come here crying, for you have (a) been warned and (b) have also been given plenty of chances already. Life on earth and history have their cycles, and the ones that learn from them are the ones that win and prosper.
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Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:51 pm

I have been puzzled by the direction that Turkish politics has been taking of late. It would seem that with the Ergenekon trial having started and the threat of a coup having thus been removed, the AKP should be riding on the crest of a wave. Together with a creeping Islamisation of society, I would have expected to see more of an iconoclastic approach towards some of the bankrupt policies pursued by the old elite, especially on the Cyprus and Kurdish isues. Yet somehow I get a sense of deja vu when I look at what is happening. With the Kurdish issue, it is as though the clock has been turned back twenty years - pro-Kurdish deputies expelled from parliament, peasant boys on military service in the East coming back in coffins, cross-border raids, crowds of youths stoning security-force members ... The only conclusion that I can come to is that some sort of deal has been hatched in a smoke filled room whereby the military/deep state gets control of certain cherished policy areas, while the AKP gets to continue its policy of Islamisation, in social rather than political terms.

Gareth Jenkins wrote the following in an article published before the Constitutional Court passed its ruling on whether the AKP should be closed:

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.ph ... id=2373257

But, as a result, it now looks as if the verdict will be announced at around the same time as Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is due to chair a meeting of the Supreme Military Council (YAS) on August 1-4, which will decide on the annual round of promotions and transfers within the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF). Most critically, YAS will nominate a successor to Chief of Staff General Yasar Buyukanit, who is due to step down at the end of August after reaching the compulsory retirement age of 67. Buyukanit is expected to be succeeded by Land Forces Commander General Ilker Basbug (born 1943), who will then serve as Chief of Staff until 2010 (see EDM, July 3).

Basbug is generally regarded within the TAF as one of the most able officers of his generation, combining a formidable intellect with an implacable commitment to the principle of secularism enshrined in the Turkish constitution by the republic’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (1881-1938). As a result, in recent months Basbug has been subjected to a defamation campaign in the pro-AKP media, in the hope of preventing his appointment as chief of staff at the YAS meeting. In recent days, AKP supporters have even begun speculating that Erdogan will veto Basbug’s promotion and appoint General Aydogan Babaoglu, the current commander of the Turkish Air Force, as Buyukanit’s successor.

AKP officials and their sympathizers in the media have also begun spreading rumors that Basbug has promised Erdogan that he would use his influence to ensure that the Constitutional Court lets the AKP off with a warning rather than closing the party down. In return, Basbug will be appointed chief of staff and the ongoing judicial investigation into the ultranationalist Ergenekon gang will stop short of trying to implicate serving, high-ranking members of the TAF. There is no evidence to support such rumors. In fact, they directly contradict what is known about the characters and personal convictions of both Basbug and the members of the Constitutional Court.



I can only conclude that Başbuğ did indeed do such a deal. I believe that the AKP, representing as it does political Islam, is hostile to the very secular nature of the modern Turkish state. As such, it is unconstitutional, and could quite legitimately have been shut down by the Constitutional Court. Yet it wasn't, and at the same time we witness a re-emergence of certain old-school nationalist policies that in the past have only led into a cul de sac. It all makes sense in the light of the rumours mentioned above by Jenkins.

Sadly, if the Turkish military/deep state has regained control of the Turkey's Cyprus policy, then the current round of negotiations is unlikely to bear fruit. I hope I am wrong. However, the noises that we have started to hear from Talat suggests that he is now mouthing the words of a different ventriloquist.
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Postby Get Real! » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:18 pm

Bananiot wrote:Just shut it Kifeas but what else can one expect from someone who has finally seen Denktash's truth?

What, the one about his bloodline emanating from the Cyprus donkey? That’s an old story.
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Postby BirKibrisli » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:40 pm

Sadly,Tim,I think you are right about the Turkish Military's control of the Cyprus policy...I am getting the feeling that Talat has indeed been thrown to the wolves,so to speak...

But I am not sure that you are right about the Bashbug rumours...He didn't have to make a deal with Erdogan to get his post...If I am not mistaken,there has never been a case where the PM insisted on a candidate other than the one in line,the one recommended by the Military...As you know when it comes to military matters the Turkish ARmed Forces is a law upon itself...Erdogan could never have the courage or stupidity to take on the Constitutional Court and the Military at the same time...

My take is that what saved the AKP was certain members of the Constitutional Court who stood to gain promotions or additional appointments to other courts while serving on the constitutional Court...

I am coming to the conclusion that Erdogan and his cronies have only one ambition left : to stay in power for as long they can, simply for personal gain...When I say personal that includes all their relatives and party bosses and their cronies who are slowly gaining the lion's share of the fruits of the fast growing Turkish economy...they will of course keep up with the rhetoric and demagogy re their (Warmly ) Islamic agenda for the sake of their voters,but any principles they had regarding the islamisation of the politics have long been abandoned,I believe..

And I still believe that they have a natural anti-European bias,and they are not sincere about joining the EU...They are using the process as an insurance policy,probably the only one they have against the Military..

So things do not look well for a solution in Cyprus now...Talat is in an impossible situation,trying to find a solutiion which will be acceptable to the GCs,TCs,and the Military at the same time...He might have already decided that the winds of change in Turkey are premanent,hence his sounding more and more like Denktash every day...
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Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:45 pm

Birciğim, I think the deal (if it happened) was more about the AKP NOT being closed, rather than Başbuğ being appointed, in return for the military/old elite/deep state getting to take charge of some of their cherished projects again.
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Postby BirKibrisli » Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:05 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:Birciğim, I think the deal (if it happened) was more about the AKP NOT being closed, rather than Başbuğ being appointed, in return for the military/old elite/deep state getting to take charge of some of their cherished projects again.


I would've thought it would be beneath the Generals to make deals with the AKP,but you never know...Times- are- a- changing... :)

You will appreciate this joke...You know of Zeki Muren, I take it. And you know that they called him "Pasha" like they call the Generals...Two Turks are talking...One asks the other "Yahu,Zeki Muren'e niye Pasha diyorlar???".. The other one replies," Pashalara ibne diyecek halleri yok ya...Ibnelere Pasha diyorlar..." :lol: :lol:
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Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:20 pm

BirKibrisli wrote:I am coming to the conclusion that Erdogan and his cronies have only one ambition left : to stay in power for as long they can, simply for personal gain...When I say personal that includes all their relatives and party bosses and their cronies who are slowly gaining the lion's share of the fruits of the fast growing Turkish economy...they will of course keep up with the rhetoric and demagogy re their (Warmly ) Islamic agenda for the sake of their voters,but any principles they had regarding the islamisation of the politics have long been abandoned,I believe..

And I still believe that they have a natural anti-European bias,and they are not sincere about joining the EU...They are using the process as an insurance policy,probably the only one they have against the Military..



I am not sure about some of these statements.

Sure, Erdoğan and his cronies have grown fond of power and the trappings that this brings and will do all they can to cling on to it. However, I am convinced that at heart their party embodies political Islam; if Bin Laden represents the extreme wing of this movement, the AKP is its moderate, acceptable face. Therein lies a contradiction. Since article 4 of the constitution of the Republic of Turkey states that the first three articles are unalterable, there is no parliamentary road to an Islamic state. They are pretty much stuck politically and can only hope to apply "neighbourhood pressure" (mahalle baskısı) in the hope of making Turkey more Islamic in social terms.

I believe that political Islam is ultimately doomed to failure worldwide; most people have simple, mundane aspirations such as improving their standard of living and this movement can't really deliver. It is only a matter of time before it ends in the dustbin of history, depositing Erdoğan and co there as well.

As to the AKP's European aspirations, I used to think this was a form of "takiyye" until I read an article by one of the most respected columnists (I can't remember which one) in the Radikal newspaper which attempted to explain the apparent contradiction of Islamic fundamentalism in Turkey actively promoting EU accession - a policy that would have been anathema to the old-school Islamist Erbakan. He argued that it was the increasing influence of the so-called Anatolian tigers - the families that had prospered as a result of industrialisation in some parts of the conservative Anatolian heartland - that fomred the base of the AKP's support. These people support traditional Islamic values, but at the same time want to grow their businesses and thus see EU accession as opening up potential new markets. You should also remember, a view also frequently promoted by Radikal columnists such as Haluk Şahin, that the AKP is essentially a coalition of Islamists and Liberals. The islamic vote alone could never bring a party to power in Turkey and Erdoğan's political genius lay in his ability to widen the platform of the Islamist party and bring other forces on board. The Liberals are strong supporters of EU accession, so the party has to remain pro-European to keep these people on board.

That's my current take on things, anyway.
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