by brother » Mon May 16, 2005 11:23 am
Moscow breakthrough: don’t believe a word of it
By Loucas Charalambous
“IT WAS a good meeting, in a good climate, but there is a long road ahead of us before the new dialogue is sufficiently prepared,” President Tassos Papadopoulos said of his meeting in Moscow with Kofi Annan and Tayyip Erdogan.
He lost no time in playing down the significance of the meeting, as he finds it very difficult to hide his true self. He seems to have a compulsion to reveal what is in the back of his mind, even when this does not suit his interests. There are times he can keep this compulsion under control, but in the end he ‘betrays’ himself, as in the case of his secret meeting with Serdar Denktash.
All those who rushed to herald the Moscow meeting as some kind of breakthrough will soon realise that, once again, they had been deceived. Neither the president nor his government partner, Demetris Christofias have suddenly become interested in a settlement, for the very simple reason that a settlement would remove them from power.
This is just another game, aimed at resolving the problem AKEL has with a significant number of left-wing voters, who seem unwilling to give their vote to the party again, after it sided with Papadopoulos and rejected the settlement a year ago. Christofias is terrified by the prospect of suffering big losses in next year’s parliamentary elections. This is why a new plan is unfolding – its objective is to deceiving left-wing voters by creating the illusion that a serious initiative for a settlement was being undertaken.
The ideal scenario – for Papadopoulos and Christofias – which they will most probably pursue, would be to manoeuvre things in such a way that an initiative by the UN Secretary-general would be as close to next May as possible. This would allow Christofias to bring disaffected left-wing voters back to the fold in time for the elections. He will appeal to them, telling them something along the following lines:
“We have started a new procedure, we are close to a solution and this time our ‘yes’ will be cemented. You can vote for us now.”
And once their votes are in the bag, he can revert to filibustering, complaining about the procedure, the timeframes, the arbitration etc, while Papadopoulos can return to the “long road ahead” and other similar nonsense. If Christofias and Papadopoulos were sincere, the Cyprus problem could have been solved in a week. They rejected the plan last year, claiming that they wanted some changes. For 12 months now, Annan, Erdogan and Mehmet Ali Talat have been asking them to tell them what changes they want so they could be discussed. Yet they are obdurately refusing to do so.
They have allowed a whole year to go by without doing anything. With their new plan, they will try to see off another year, while maintaining hopes that a new initiative is on the horizon, so they can reach the critical month of May 2006. And then they will have two more years in front of them in order to prepare for the presidential elections of 2008.
The trap, in other words, has been set up by our co-presidents in the hope that Annan, the British and the Americans will once again fall in it. I reckon this is more than likely to happen so I would like to give Annan a little advice. He should set three non-negotiable conditions before he undertakes any new initiative. First, Papadopoulos should state in a clear and binding way, the changes he wants made to the Annan plan. Second, a new timeframe should be set stipulating the completion of the procedure at the end of this year. Third, the provision for the holding of referenda should be removed from the plan and approval for the plan should be left to the existing two legislatures.
If any one of these conditions is not met, Annan should not bother with an initiative, because all he would achieve would be to throw Christofias the lifeline he is looking for. The end of the “long road” will never be reached and partition will become the solution.
You are right old wolves tricks are ripe in the south as well