Cyprus-Forum.com

[Andros]

Sorry to arrive after a short period away with a Negative Subject, but I am obviously disappointed with both Cypriot leaders.

TC leader Mehmet Ali Talat and President Christofias appear to be two Socialist cowboys who have both obviously miscalculated their fortune. In fact, I would say that Talat has clearly played us for a complete fool - how disappointing that we are now faced with a very serious dilemma!

As I've said in the past, Talat has absolutely No real negotiating power, can not negotiate a true unification of the ROC with the North without mentioning either Two States, Power Sharing and the dissolution of the ROC, or, now his favourite word: Guarantorship! What's bound to happen is my real question behind this posting?

Well, this is what I think will exactly happen:
TC leader and President Christofias will talks some more, and then a little more with no practical results. Then suddenly, President Christofias will realise why our former President completely, and categorically refused to sit in front of the TC leader under a UN negotiating framework based on two states under one federal deal - because it would lead to a FORCED new watered-down version of the disastrous Annan plan. Giving 11-18% of the island's minority people "Equal" rights as the vast majority - who great democracy is!!!

Anyway, getting back to my prediction, after this has been realised by President Christofias, perhaps be noticing the huge smiles on the Turkish soldiers manning the Cease-Fire line, we will be presented with a situation of two lesser evils to choose from.

LESSER EVIL ONE
1) We will either have to accept a referendum on this watered-down Annan Plan of two Constituent states again under a federal structure and most probably reject it and then witness the so-called legitimisation of the "TRNC".

or

LESSER EVIL TWO
2) President Christofias puts on his thinking hat well before hand and slams his fist on the table and says "enough is enough" of this "Federal" rubbish and time to talk real politics. “Time time to talk trade, prepare for a Give and Take process and to bring closure to the Cyprus issue once and for all”. I am hoping that Christofias will raise his hand and finish what President Papadopoulos originally started. That he will cement the Republic of Cyprus' future and eliminate any such "Federation" threats by accepting the unthinkable and un-do-able. He will hit Turkey with a Catch-22 and demand the following:

SEEING THAT TURKEY REALLY WANTS A TWO STATE SOLUTION, LET’S GIVE HER ONE:
i) The TRNC be accepted as an internationally recognised Turkish Cypriot State if it hands back all areas that reduce it to 18% maximum.

ii) That Turkey will only have rights in all areas of the NEW "TRNC" (or what ever they decide to call it) only, and all historical international agreements on the ROC are legally removed under the command of the international community, UN, EU and others bodies.

ii) That the Republic of Cyprus is internationally known as a Greek Cypriot identity only, and which others will be bound by Greek Cypriot citizenship as the ROC under EU law.

As part of the above agreement, the so-called "TRNC" of today will not be the same as the "TRNC" of tomorrow, and that the "TRNC" of tomorrow MUST have a "Turkish Cypriot" structure, will be demilitarised and must be considered by the EU as an EU Member Candidate SPERATE from TURKEY.

Therefore, what I am suggesting is that I believe that President Christofias will either mess-up badly and be forced to accept the "TRNC" of today after a failed unification process, OR he will (or MUST) slam his fist and force an inevitable two state deal under his TERMS and CONDITIONS.

You may all smirk at this idea – but I am certain that President Christofias accepts that the Memet Ali Talat of 1995 is completely brainwashed, and has changed to the Talat “Pasha” of today!

I accept that unification as the ROC of the entire island is a doomed reality into recognition of the Status quo if talks continue too long, or fail for that matter.

which of the above is the lesser evil?

[Cem]

Hi Andros, I joined the club when you were away.

Could you please enlighten our chief scientist Oracle about the fact that you and I are different persons as she has been accusing you as masquerading as me and vice versa.... while you were away.

[zan]

Stop talking to yourself Cem

Don't worry about the shedevil.......I am more interested to hear what other GCs think about what Andros is saying.

[Get Real!]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Talat is acting in the interests of Turkey so nothing has changed from 5 or 10 years ago… honestly people, is anything more adamant and predictable than “TRNC” policy?

[RichardB]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Talat is acting in the interests of Turkey so nothing has changed from 5 or 10 years ago… honestly people, is anything more adamant and predictable than “TRNC” policy?

Does the ''TRNC'' have its own policies??

When did Turkey allow that then??

[zan]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Talat is acting in the interests of Turkey so nothing has changed from 5 or 10 years ago… honestly people, is anything more adamant and predictable than “TRNC” policy?

Does the ''TRNC'' have its own policies??

When did Turkey allow that then??

If we are to believe everything you guys tell us about the TRNC and Turkey then it should not make sense to you as it doesn't to me, that Talat is even contemplating talking about unification and having Turkey as just a guarantor. You guys are getting a bit carried away with how much power a guarantor can have in this situation. Once the TRNc gets that power then Turkey would be on the back foot.....You seem to think that Turkey can just walz in when she wants with guarantor-ship.

[zan]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Talat is acting in the interests of Turkey so nothing has changed from 5 or 10 years ago… honestly people, is anything more adamant and predictable than “TRNC” policy?

I don't know if Andros knows it, and you seem to be ignoring it, but he is questioning the actions of Your leader more than ours......What do you think Christofias should do is what he is asking not what Talat should do...That seems to be a forgone conclusion as far as you and he are concerned anyway!!!! Hmmmmm

Lets have some proper answers!!

[Viewpoint]

Sorry to arrive after a short period away with a Negative Subject, but I am obviously disappointed with both Cypriot leaders.

TC leader Mehmet Ali Talat and President Christofias appear to be two Socialist cowboys who have both obviously miscalculated their fortune. In fact, I would say that Talat has clearly played us for a complete fool - how disappointing that we are now faced with a very serious dilemma!

As I've said in the past, Talat has absolutely No real negotiating power, can not negotiate a true unification of the ROC with the North without mentioning either Two States, Power Sharing and the dissolution of the ROC, or, now his favourite word: Guarantorship! What's bound to happen is my real question behind this posting?

Well, this is what I think will exactly happen:
TC leader and President Christofias will talks some more, and then a little more with no practical results. Then suddenly, President Christofias will realise why our former President completely, and categorically refused to sit in front of the TC leader under a UN negotiating framework based on two states under one federal deal - because it would lead to a FORCED new watered-down version of the disastrous Annan plan. Giving 11-18% of the island's minority people "Equal" rights as the vast majority - who great democracy is!!!

Anyway, getting back to my prediction, after this has been realised by President Christofias, perhaps be noticing the huge smiles on the Turkish soldiers manning the Cease-Fire line, we will be presented with a situation of two lesser evils to choose from.

LESSER EVIL ONE
1) We will either have to accept a referendum on this watered-down Annan Plan of two Constituent states again under a federal structure and most probably reject it and then witness the so-called legitimisation of the "TRNC".

or

LESSER EVIL TWO
2) President Christofias puts on his thinking hat well before hand and slams his fist on the table and says "enough is enough" of this "Federal" rubbish and time to talk real politics. “Time time to talk trade, prepare for a Give and Take process and to bring closure to the Cyprus issue once and for all”. I am hoping that Christofias will raise his hand and finish what President Papadopoulos originally started. That he will cement the Republic of Cyprus' future and eliminate any such "Federation" threats by accepting the unthinkable and un-do-able. He will hit Turkey with a Catch-22 and demand the following:

SEEING THAT TURKEY REALLY WANTS A TWO STATE SOLUTION, LET’S GIVE HER ONE:
i) The TRNC be accepted as an internationally recognised Turkish Cypriot State if it hands back all areas that reduce it to 18% maximum.

ii) That Turkey will only have rights in all areas of the NEW "TRNC" (or what ever they decide to call it) only, and all historical international agreements on the ROC are legally removed under the command of the international community, UN, EU and others bodies.

ii) That the Republic of Cyprus is internationally known as a Greek Cypriot identity only, and which others will be bound by Greek Cypriot citizenship as the ROC under EU law.

As part of the above agreement, the so-called "TRNC" of today will not be the same as the "TRNC" of tomorrow, and that the "TRNC" of tomorrow MUST have a "Turkish Cypriot" structure, will be demilitarised and must be considered by the EU as an EU Member Candidate SPERATE from TURKEY.

Therefore, what I am suggesting is that I believe that President Christofias will either mess-up badly and be forced to accept the "TRNC" of today after a failed unification process, OR he will (or MUST) slam his fist and force an inevitable two state deal under his TERMS and CONDITIONS.

You may all smirk at this idea – but I am certain that President Christofias accepts that the Memet Ali Talat of 1995 is completely brainwashed, and has changed to the Talat “Pasha” of today!

I accept that unification as the ROC of the entire island is a doomed reality into recognition of the Status quo if talks continue too long, or fail for that matter.

which of the above is the lesser evil?

So what you are saying is lets agree partition? been saying this for years.

[Nikitas]

TUrkey will never agree to partition and full independence for the south. They will always want a hand in the whole of the island. And they definitely will NOT accept a fully independent TRNC, internationally recognised with a seat at the UN and member of the EU.

[GreekForumer]

As I've said in the past, Talat has absolutely No real negotiating power, can not negotiate a true unification of the ROC with the North without mentioning either Two States, Power Sharing and the dissolution of the ROC, or, now his favourite word: Guarantorship! What's bound to happen is my real question behind this posting?

Let the TCs have their Guarantor.

But under no circumstances can this Guarantor be Turkey, the nation founded by Genocide and expulsion of the Christian communities that lived in its current territories. And we know what new "realities" the Turkish ruling elite had in mind during the turmoil of WW2. We know about Dersim and Hatay and Imbros and Tenedos, etc. Sorry, Turkey is unfit for Guarantorship.