zan wrote:Big Al wrote:Andros wrote:Sorry to arrive after a short period away with a Negative Subject, but I am obviously disappointed with both Cypriot leaders.
TC leader Mehmet Ali Talat and President Christofias appear to be two Socialist cowboys who have both obviously miscalculated their fortune. In fact, I would say that Talat has clearly played us for a complete fool - how disappointing that we are now faced with a very serious dilemma!
As I've said in the past, Talat has absolutely No real negotiating power, can not negotiate a true unification of the ROC with the North without mentioning either Two States, Power Sharing and the dissolution of the ROC, or, now his favourite word: Guarantorship! What's bound to happen is my real question behind this posting?
Well, this is what I think will exactly happen:
TC leader and President Christofias will talks some more, and then a little more with no practical results. Then suddenly, President Christofias will realise why our former President completely, and categorically refused to sit in front of the TC leader under a UN negotiating framework based on two states under one federal deal - because it would lead to a FORCED new watered-down version of the disastrous Annan plan. Giving 11-18% of the island's minority people "Equal" rights as the vast majority - who great democracy is!!!
Anyway, getting back to my prediction, after this has been realised by President Christofias, perhaps be noticing the huge smiles on the Turkish soldiers manning the Cease-Fire line, we will be presented with a situation of two lesser evils to choose from.
LESSER EVIL ONE
1) We will either have to accept a referendum on this watered-down Annan Plan of two Constituent states again under a federal structure and most probably reject it and then witness the so-called legitimisation of the "TRNC".
or
LESSER EVIL TWO
2) President Christofias puts on his thinking hat well before hand and slams his fist on the table and says "enough is enough" of this "Federal" rubbish and time to talk real politics. “Time time to talk trade, prepare for a Give and Take process and to bring closure to the Cyprus issue once and for all”. I am hoping that Christofias will raise his hand and finish what President Papadopoulos originally started. That he will cement the Republic of Cyprus' future and eliminate any such "Federation" threats by accepting the unthinkable and un-do-able. He will hit Turkey with a Catch-22 and demand the following:
SEEING THAT TURKEY REALLY WANTS A TWO STATE SOLUTION, LET’S GIVE HER ONE:
i) The TRNC be accepted as an internationally recognised Turkish Cypriot State if it hands back all areas that reduce it to 18% maximum.
ii) That Turkey will only have rights in all areas of the NEW "TRNC" (or what ever they decide to call it) only, and all historical international agreements on the ROC are legally removed under the command of the international community, UN, EU and others bodies.
ii) That the Republic of Cyprus is internationally known as a Greek Cypriot identity only, and which others will be bound by Greek Cypriot citizenship as the ROC under EU law.
As part of the above agreement, the so-called "TRNC" of today will not be the same as the "TRNC" of tomorrow, and that the "TRNC" of tomorrow MUST have a "Turkish Cypriot" structure, will be demilitarised and must be considered by the EU as an EU Member Candidate SPERATE from TURKEY.
Therefore, what I am suggesting is that I believe that President Christofias will either mess-up badly and be forced to accept the "TRNC" of today after a failed unification process, OR he will (or MUST) slam his fist and force an inevitable two state deal under his TERMS and CONDITIONS.
You may all smirk at this idea – but I am certain that President Christofias accepts that the Memet Ali Talat of 1995 is completely brainwashed, and has changed to the Talat “Pasha” of today!
I accept that unification as the ROC of the entire island is a doomed reality into recognition of the Status quo if talks continue too long, or fail for that matter.
which of the above is the lesser evil?
Andros, one thing you forget to mention is that the GC has no bargaining power to demand to TC side reduce its area to 18%, if the GC's did have any power to demand this dont you think they would have exerted that power by now, at he very least if the GC had any power they would have been able to take control of famagusta, dont you think?????
Fact is the GC bargainin power is far less than the TC side. If worst comes to worst and nothing is acheived through negotiation, the TC's can hold a referendum and join the republic of Turkey and the GC's are powerless to stop this. When all is done and dusted with this credit crisis, the EU will be very unattractive to Turkey, therefore the only carrot for Turkey will become a stone.
18% is a bullshit number and has no relevance in how much land a people need of have in Cyprus.
You're right, The tc population shouldn't need more than 11% with their numbers now.