Cyprus-Forum.com

[eracles]

What impact do you think the crisis with Russia will have on the Cyprus problem.
Gordon Brown will seek to promote a Caspian Sea oil pipleline running through Turkey in crisis talks in the EU tomorrow, in order to reduce dependency on Russian oil.
Will the EU take a softer stance on Turkey's unreasonable demands on Cyprus as a result? Fast track EU accession?

[repulsewarrior]

...a good question, but i think there is too much water under the bridge. turkey is not credible, and in its weakened state, she is neither reliable or trustworthy.

the EU and Britain, can only wait, while Turkey crumbles or reforms herself. they are not in a position to weaken themselves in a 'deal' which most likely will go arye.

[turkkan]

Will the EU take a softer stance on Turkey's unreasonable demands on Cyprus as a result? Fast track EU accession?

You make it sound as if the EU has taken a very pro greek cypriot stance lately and there is a danger it will change it? As for turkeys EU accession, most turkish news papers dont even talk about it anymore, it has been put on a hold as turkey deals with its internal problems and as the EU deals with its own problems. The climate that existed during the annan plan with turkeys ruling goverment beleiving sincerely at that time that if they solved the cyprus problem they might get into the EU in even 5-10 years has long evaporated. It is simply not a major factor for them at this moment in time.

Now with the pipeline issue to be discussed tomorrow, there will be no bargaining on Cyprus at all, there are far more important issues at stake then what happens in cyprus beleive it or not. It is in nearly all of the EU member states interest for that pipeline to be built and it is also in turkeys interest for that pipeline to be built. As it stands now Turkey relies on 60% of its gas to come from Russia, and for a lot of EU countries that figure is even higher. For all the ridiculous talk of how 'untrustworthy' turkey is, russia is the one that has in the past two years cut on two occasions gas supplies to certain parts of Europe as a protest. Turkey has never and would never dare stop petrol or gas flowing from the pipelines that cross its territory. This pipeline would bypass russia and help curb the EUs reliance on russia, it will certainly be built at some point.

[repulsewarrior]

...indeed turkkan, well said, didn't think about it that way, well said.

just the same, cyprus is not a 'sweetener' and any deal would be scotched by a demand that would fill it with more uncertainty.

...without cyprus (as part of the deal) this effort is a useful measure in confidence building.

[Oracle]

That is because Turkey has more to lose than Russia in any show of pseudo-power ....

[turkkan]

The Nabucco pipeline is a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. It will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March, a major natural gas hub in Austria. This pipeline is a diversion from the current methods of importing natural gas solely from Russia which exposes EC to dependance and insecurity of the Kremlin practices. The project is backed by the European Union and the United States.

Route

The pipeline will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March in Austria with total length of 3,300 kilometres (2,050 mi). It will be connected near Erzurum with the Tabriz-Erzurum pipeline, and with the South Caucasus Pipeline, connecting Nabucco Pipeline with the planned Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.

Polish gas company PGNiG is studying the possibility of building a link to Poland with the Nabucco gas pipeline.

Technical features

In early years after completion the deliveries are expected to be between 4.5 and 13 billion cubic meters (bcm) per annum, of which 2 to 8 bcm goes to Baumgarten. Later, approximately half of the capacity is expected to be delivered to Baumgarten and half of the natural gas is to serve the markets en-route. The transmission volume of around 2020 is expected to reach 31 bcm per annum, of which up to 16 bcm goes to Baumgarten. The diameter of the pipeline would be 56 inches (1,420 mm).

Construction

The Nabucco project is included in the EU Trans-European Energy Network programme and a feasibility study for the Nabucco pipeline has been performed under an EU project grant. The FEED services of the pipeline, including the overall management of the local FEED contractors, the review of the technical feasibility study, route confirmation, preparation of the design basis, hydraulic studies, overall SCADA and telecommunications, GIS and preparation of tender packages for the next phase, is managed by UK-based consultancy Penspen.

Construction of pipeline is expected to begin in 2010 and is planned to be finished in 2013. It estimated to cost around €7.9 billion. The company leading the project is OMV from Austria.

Supply sources

The EU currently relies heavily on natural gas from Russia and is eager to diversify its suppliers. Nabucco pipeline may be supplied with gas from several middle east and central asian countries :

* The main source of supply will be the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan, coming on-stream in 2013. There is an agreement for 8 bcm of natural gas per annum with further expansion.
* Turkmenistan would provide for Nabucco 10 bcm of gas annually. Turkmenistan has large natural gas reserves e.g. the Dauletabad gas field. The natural gas could be transported through Iran or across the Caspian Sea via planned Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.
* Iran has also proposed to supply gas to Nabucco pipeline, but this is rejected by the EU and the United States.
* In the long term Kazakhstan, from the Northerm Caspian reserves through planned Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.
* Egypt, which has discovered large gas reserves in the Nile Delta basin during the recent years, could provide 3-5 bcm of natural gas through the Arab Gas Pipeline.
* Also Iraqi gas would be imported via the Arab Gas Pipeline from the Ekas field.
* There is also option, that Nabucco could be fed with Russian natural gas through the Blue Stream pipeline

Project company

The project is developed by the Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH. The managing director of the company is Reinhardt Mitschek. The shareholders of the company are:

* OMV (Austria)
* MOL (Hungary)
* Transgaz (Romania)
* Bulgargaz (Bulgaria)
* BOTAÞ (Turkey)
* RWE (Germany)

All current shareholders have 16.67% of the shares.

French company Gaz de France was also interested to get a stakes in the pipeline, but was rejected by Turkey . In future the consortium intended to include also the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), however SOCAR has identified a number of problems with its membership. Also Kazakhstan has indicated its readiness to join the project. There are speculations that also Gazprom may be interested to participate in the project..
The European Commission Nabucco coordinator is Jozias van Aartsen


Alternative projects

In 2006, Gazprom proposed an alternative project competing Nabucco Pipeline by constructing a second section of the Blue Stream pipeline beneath the Black Sea to Turkey, and extending this up through Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia to western Hungary. In 2007, the South Stream project through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary to Austria was proposed. It is seen as a rival to the Nabucco pipeline. Ukraine proposed White Stream, connecting Georgia to Ukrainian gas transport network

[repulsewarrior]

thank-you, this is helpful.

[utu]

...a good question, but i think there is too much water under the bridge. turkey is not credible, and in its weakened state, she is neither reliable or trustworthy.

the EU and Britain, can only wait, while Turkey crumbles or reforms herself. they are not in a position to weaken themselves in a 'deal' which most likely will go arye.

I don't think credibility will count for much. Realpolitik will play the major part here, and that means self-interest of the people receiving the resource.

[Raymanoff]

So Turkey seem to be a much trustworthy partner in gas pipeline business? Russia always had a steady supply of natural gas & oil even during cold war. Putin gave interview to numerous western channels assuring that they will not disrupt supplies in any scenario. By trying to bypass Russia now - EU is making a strategic mistake angering Russian government even more.

P.S. Kurds will blow pipeline every chance they get... and they will.

[turkkan]

These pipelines are hard to blow up as they are built underground, its not impossible but its no way near as easy as other pipelines such as in Nigeria where the pipelines are built over land and are constantly blown up. They will have their own protection anyway with infrared systems and UAV's flying overhead most of the time from what is reported in the press.

Eitherway, the fact that russia will get angry and might retaliate is the whole point of building this pipeline so that the EU wont be so reliant on russias mood. Having said that, unless the situation in Iran and Iraq changes dramatically, for the forseable future whether this pipeline is built or not the EU will certainly be reliant on russias oil. If iran and iraq become stable trading partners though that will definitely change.