Cyprus-Forum.com

[magikthrill]

bienvenue axilleus

[Anglo]

Papadopoulos has cooled

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/ ... 97BADB.htm

[magikthrill]

"Let us not hasten to hail the resumption of some initiative. There is still a long way to go before a new dialogue is properly prepared," Papadopoulos said.

maybe if papadopoulos's requests were incorporated into the negotiations the first time round he would be more eager to dive into dialogue. if he knows hes gonna get screwed over either way (which WILL be the final case) he might as well take some time. in the end what he says will only be disregarded like the frist time round.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Surely Alexandros if that were the case then Southern Cyprus should be the ones pushing for the next round of negotiations to capitalize on the matters you mention.

Well, it is not as simple as that, because GCs fear that a premature resumption of negotiations might mean that they will be served again with the Annan Plan with minimal changes. Once negotiations begin, both Turkey and the GCs will be under pressure from the international community to make big concessions - therefore both hesitate.

From what I understand, international diplomats consider at the moment that the TCs and Greece are the most enthusiastic about resuming negotiations as soon as possible, whereas the GCs are lukewarm and Turkey is strongly negative.

Interesting, no?

From what I hear, it seems that Turkey will be much more positive to the idea of a new round of negotiations after the 3rd October, when the whole hurdle of beginning accession negotiations will have been overcome.

[Viewpoint]

Leverage dear Alexandros, Papadop is waiting to build enough leverage via EU on Turkey to extract as much as possible in the way of concessions, but the TC no vote should not be disregarded, many Tcs are becoming more and more disgruntled with UN EU USA UK GCs, that this possibility in opinion is very strong.

[Alexandros Lordos]

many Tcs are becoming more and more disgruntled with UN EU USA UK GCs

Is that a fact? I was worried that this would begin to happen ...

[erolz]

many Tcs are becoming more and more disgruntled with UN EU USA UK GCs

Is that a fact? I was worried that this would begin to happen ...

My perception is that there is growing disillousionment in the North. With all parties involved. There was a real feeling of imminent and potential change in the North 2-3 years ago. The popular rallies, the decline of Denktash the annan plan. It was kind of like a mini popular revolution. However all people are seeing as the result of this is the status quo drag on and on with little sign of any change any time soon. People are feeling 'whats the point'? In my opinion it will not be that long before Talat becomes a victim to this and the old power bases start to claw back their recent losses. He probably has a couple more years but if in that time there is still no change or prospect of change then I think he is in trouble - unless he manges to deal and been seen to deal with the Norths internal problems (seperate from the cyprob) effectively.

There was real momentum for change 2 years ago in the North. That momentum is slowly reducing daily imo.

[magikthrill]

My perception is that there is growing disillousionment in the North. With all parties involved. There was a real feeling of imminent and potential change in the North 2-3 years ago. The popular rallies, the decline of Denktash the annan plan. It was kind of like a mini popular revolution. However all people are seeing as the result of this is the status quo drag on and on with little sign of any change any time soon. People are feeling 'whats the point'? In my opinion it will not be that long before Talat becomes a victim to this and the old power bases start to claw back their recent losses. He probably has a couple more years but if in that time there is still no change or prospect of change then I think he is in trouble - unless he manges to deal and been seen to deal with the Norths internal problems (seperate from the cyprob) effectively.

There was real momentum for change 2 years ago in the North. That momentum is slowly reducing daily imo.

erol,

do you think that the TCs perhaps were given false hope by certain people (maybe the int'l community, Turkey, certain parties?). Or do you think they had every right to believe a solution would occur?

I feel like TCs should have anticipated that the A-Plan would fail from the GC side. Assuming (my assumption) the A-PLan was one of the major causes of this momentum in the TCs do you think that this momentum was justified from such a plan as the Annan?

Just asking for your opinion.

[erolz]

erol,

do you think that the TCs perhaps were given false hope by certain people (maybe the int'l community, Turkey, certain parties?). Or do you think they had every right to believe a solution would occur?

Well in the sense that 'this time' there was a real feeling that finally there might be some change to the status quo and that change has so far failed to materialise then yes the hope was false.

I feel like TCs should have anticipated that the A-Plan would fail from the GC side. Assuming (my assumption) the A-PLan was one of the major causes of this momentum in the TCs do you think that this momentum was justified from such a plan as the Annan?

Just asking for your opinion.

There was much anticipation that the GC would reject the Annan plan. However there was a belief that even if that was the outcome there would still be siginifcant change for TC. The Annan plan may have been the nudge that started the popular momentum for change but it was TC that really drove it this time (unlike in the past) essentially with their increasing recjionism of the traditional political power bases here and support for new political forces. The pro unification rallies here, whilst massively mis reported in general outside of the north, where very real and very different from anything seen here in 30 years. I doubt today you could even 70% of those people onto the streets again in a similar way and in another 2 years without any significant change to peoples lives here you would prob get less than 50% of those that went onto the streets before.

[brother]

UN pushes for talks about talks


Talks to be held with UN in attempt to revive solution efforts

THE UNITED Nations is to start talks with Greek Cypriot leaders in the next few days in a bid to revive efforts to reunite Cyprus.

But all sides yesterday played down any idea of a speedy resumption of substantive, face-to-face negotiations on an issue that has frustrated diplomats for 30 years and now threatens to block Turkey’s hopes of joining the European Union.

Speculation came to a head in Moscow on Monday when President Tassos Papadopoulos, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan briefly spoke on the sidelines of 60th anniversary commemorations marking the end of the war in Europe. Erdogan returned to Turkey saying he had noticed “a change in the Greek Cypriot administration’s stance vis-à-vis prospects of launching a new initiative.”

According to reports in Moscow Papadopoulos pledged to send government diplomats to UN headquarters to “scout ahead” for a possible new initiative. Last night United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced he is likely to send his right-hand man, the Deputy Secretary-General for political affairs Sir Kieran Prendergast for an exploratory mission to Cyprus.

Returning to Larnaca yesterday, Papadopoulos, would “neither confirm nor deny” the reports.

But a United Nations spokesman in Nicosia said the talks at UN headquarters in New York would be “exploratory” and Greek Foreign Minister Petros Molyviatis revealed they would start in mid May.

Papadopoulos, however, warned there was a long way to go before a peace deal, or even full peace talks, were possible.

Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan plan, a UN power-sharing deal in a referendum last year, and the plan was abandoned. Turkish Cypriots wholeheartedly backed the plan.
“Let’s not rush to greet the resumption of a new initiative. There is still a long road before us before the new dialogue is sufficiently prepared,” Papadopoulos told reporters.
Molyviatis said the UN talks with the Greek Cypriots were to seek a way out of the impasse.

“There will be preliminary contacts between Nicosia and the United Nations to make sure that the first step won’t be the last one,” he told Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting of east European countries in Bucharest.

Asked when this would take place, he said: “In mid-May... in the very next few days.”
UN spokeswoman Marie Okabe said Annan was was likely to send an envoy “because several parties have indicated that they are interested in receiving an envoy.”

Asked if Annan intends to send Prendergast, the spokeswoman replied, “It is likely to be him”.

Turkish Cypriot ‘Foreign Minister’ Serdar Denktash vowed to match any Greek Cypriot peace moves. “Every step Greek Cypriots take, we will be there making great efforts to express our views,” he told reporters.

The Greek Cypriots joined the EU last May shortly after rejecting the UN blueprint. Now, as EU members, they have to power to block Turkey’s EU ambitions.

Turkey hoped the UN talks might lead to progress. “Turkey has always said the UN was the place to resolve the Cyprus issue,” Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told Reuters in Bucharest.

“There had been hesitance on the Greek Cypriot side and we hope that they will enter a positive process with this meeting and a solution considering both sides’ rights and laws.”
European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn is to make his first visit to Cyprus on Thursday and Friday this week “to establish a dialogue with all partners”.

New talks would be based on the UN plan, slammed by Greek Cypriots as a whitewash of Turkey’s three-decade-old military presence on the island in violation of UN resolutions.

They want sweeping changes to the blueprint, but have refused a UN request to specify grievances before new talks in case it betrays their negotiating positions.

“Surely there is a golden rule in between. They know enough of the concerns of the Greek Cypriot side,” Papadopoulos told Reuters in an interview last week.

Diplomats said the UN had to be sure the Greek Cypriots were serious about seeking a solution.

“I think the United Nations will be looking for a realistic approach, a willingness of the Greek Cypriots to compromise,” a Western diplomat said.

The scenarios come at a time when political analysts say substantial developments in the Cyprus issue are unlikely at least until October 3, when Ankara officially starts accession negotiations with the EU. With a great deal at stake, neither Cyprus nor Turkey are seen as willing to “rock the boat” before that date. Other commentators, however, suggest that the opposite the date could actually increase pressure for a solution.

Erdogan is again scheduled to meet Annan in New York on June 7 while on a visit to the United States, and the UN chief will reportedly be meeting with Greek Prime Minister Constantinos Karamanlis shortly after that.