Cyprus-Forum.com

[DT.]

It might be worth getting a sense of historical perspective and comparison here. First, the economic difficulties facing Turkey are, in the short run, nothing as severe as those which it suffered in the late 70s, in the 80s, in the late 90s, or the early part of this decade. I agree there are huge structural problems - but these are faced by all OECD economies to a greater or lesser extent. Thus Turkey is NOT less capable of supporting TRNC than before. It is a question of whether the AKP in particular wish to do so and in what way and for what purpose.

Second, whether supported by Turkey or not, does an economic crisis in TRNC more likely lead to a retrenchment of Turkish Cypriot separatism or does it more likely lead to an opening to the RoC ? (In any case it depends what kind of economic crisis and what its dynamics are).

Third, wishing for a crisis in expectation of throwing off the yoke of powerful forces is usually a daft wish in the absence of an organised movement or party. It is the already-powerful who survive crises, who suffer least, who are capable of offsetting damage, not the poor, the weak or the powerless. Just compare the size and weight of the Turkish economy with that of Cyprus, RoC or TRNC.

I'd have thought a better strategy would be to reflect on economic crises as affecting ordinary Cypriots and others and using that as a basis for common solidarity. Workers of all lands unite.

GDP per capita Cyprus: $27,429
GDP per capita Turkey: $ 9,629

Tell me again who are the poor?

[miltiades]

It might be worth getting a sense of historical perspective and comparison here. First, the economic difficulties facing Turkey are, in the short run, nothing as severe as those which it suffered in the late 70s, in the 80s, in the late 90s, or the early part of this decade. I agree there are huge structural problems - but these are faced by all OECD economies to a greater or lesser extent. Thus Turkey is NOT less capable of supporting TRNC than before. It is a question of whether the AKP in particular wish to do so and in what way and for what purpose.

Second, whether supported by Turkey or not, does an economic crisis in TRNC more likely lead to a retrenchment of Turkish Cypriot separatism or does it more likely lead to an opening to the RoC ? (In any case it depends what kind of economic crisis and what its dynamics are).

Third, wishing for a crisis in expectation of throwing off the yoke of powerful forces is usually a daft wish in the absence of an organised movement or party. It is the already-powerful who survive crises, who suffer least, who are capable of offsetting damage, not the poor, the weak or the powerless. Just compare the size and weight of the Turkish economy with that of Cyprus, RoC or TRNC.

I'd have thought a better strategy would be to reflect on economic crises as affecting ordinary Cypriots and others and using that as a basis for common solidarity. Workers of all lands unite.

GDP per capita Cyprus: $27,429
GDP per capita Turkey: $ 9,629

Tell me again who are the poor?

I was just about to post the exact figures. I think our friend was confusing numerical superiority !! Cyprus is streets ahead of Turkey in economic . political and social areas. We do not bow our heads to the army neither do we care what a woman wears -or not wears - either at universities , schools , on the beach or anywhere else. The Turkish nation is currently struggling to come to terms with the 21st century , we are not in any other struggle but the one to unify our island and get the occupying troops out of European lands.

[Nikitas]

Turkey's economic growth depends largely on manufacturing, mostly in foreign owned factories with imported technology or via reverse engineering. The quality of the products is oddly enough not on par with Chinese products. These foreign "investors" will be quick to leave when the costs rise or when the environmental controls make production costlier. It is a scenario we went through in Greece. Remember Pirelli which took off in one day and moved to Turkey?

The problem is that there is not promotion of local innovation and original engineering. Same goes for Greece and Cyprus by the way. Example is the desalination situation. By now we should be exporting this technology, not importing it from Germany and others.

The end result is that our relative wealth depends on others.

[CopperLine]

DT,

The measure of GDP per capita does not tell you the strength of an economy, it doesn't even tell you the size of the economy, and it doesn't tell you the anything about the distribution of power in an economy and therefore cannot tell you anything useful about poverty.[/b]

[CopperLine]

Nikitas,
Turkey's principal economic weakness is its attractiveness over recent years for short-term lending. Whilst it is of course true that some manufacturing is of the kind you describe, a greater part of it is the result of foreign direct investment as well as produced by 'domestically'-owned enterprises. (We really should get over the obsession with 'nationally owned capital' - capital is by its very nature international in character). The chief advantage that China has over Turkey is not that of manufacturing innovation but the simple fact of lower wage rates - itself the function of a repressive state and corporate apparatus.

[DT.]

DT,
The measure of GDP per capita does not tell you the strength of an economy, it doesn't even tell you the size of the economy, and it doesn't tell you the anything about the distribution of power in an economy and therefore cannot tell you anything useful about poverty.

It tells me plenty Copperline. It tells me that had the population of Cyprus been equal to that of Turkey's the economy of Cyprus would be 3 times larger than Turkey's. You cannot compare a country's GDP with another without taking into consideration its physical and population size. Its like saying this pumpkin is juicier than this apple because it is bigger. Overall it may be but as far as juice per bite goes then the apple wins every time.

I am happy for you to suggest an economic indicator of your liking to compare the distribution of power as you describe above. If you like I will dig out a few poverty indicators and see how many Turks live under the poverty line and how many Cypriots live under it. Would that be acceptable?

[CopperLine]

DT,

It tells me that had the population of Cyprus been equal to that of Turkey's the economy of Cyprus would be 3 times larger than Turkey's.

No, you cannot just pick out one figure that you like (Cyprus GDP per capita) then throw out a history that you don't like (Turkey's economic record) and then throw your GDP back in and say "if X had been Y then we'd be better than Z". This is just wishful thinking.

You cannot compare a country's GDP with another without taking into consideration its physical and population size.

GDP per capita is a measure which makes NO reference to a country's size, it is solely a measure of the value of domestically generated earnings against total population. The size of the country is irrelevant.

This is how the World Bank defines GDP :

Gross domestic product is gross value added, at purchasers’ prices,
by all resident producers in the economy plus any taxes and minus
any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is cal-
culated without deducting for depreciation of fabricated assets or
for depletion or degradation of natural resources. Value added is
the net output of an industry after adding up all outputs and sub-
tracting intermediate inputs. The industrial origin of value added
is determined by the International Standard Industrial Classifi ca-
tion (ISIC) revision 3. The World Bank conventionally uses the U.S.
dollar and applies the average offi cial exchange rate reported by the
International Monetary Fund for the year shown. An alternative
conversion factor is applied if the offi cial exchange rate is judged to
diverge by an exceptionally large margin from the rate effectively
applied to transactions in foreign currencies and traded products.

[url]
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERN ... 43,00.html[/url]


DT, I'm not arguing about poverty or even inequality. Of course there are many more in poverty - by whatever measure - in Turkey than in Cyprus. (Again GDP per capita does not measure poverty, it is an average. The whole purpose of GDP as an average is to remove reference to difference). The issue was the strength or crisis of the Turkish economy. High absolute GDP or high GDP per capita is no guarantee of economic stability or insurance against economic crisis.

[humanist]

hey Galileo was ono it

[Oracle]

hey Galileo was ono it

The problem with CopperLine is that he takes his signature literally, and chooses to learn only from the ignorant

[repulsewarrior]

The crisis will not abate because this government authority is submissive in its affairs toward Turkey. Talat may not be playing by Turkey's book, since the money is being withheld. Christofias, having won on a "ground up" policy will have an opportunity to show his commitment to Turkish Cypriots. September is just around the corner.