I can’t help wondering if there are parallels between the recent debacle in Georgia and the Hungarian uprising against Soviet rule in 1956. Some people have argued that the Hungarian people at the time were misled by the propaganda that they were fed by the likes of Radio Free Europe into believing that if they started something, the West would step in and help them finish it. Unfortunately, the values of liberty and democracy promoted by the West needed to be taken with a pinch of salt because, ultimately, these values were a veneer to justify whatever action the West took in its own interests. The Hungarian people learned this lesson the hard way.
On the other hand, when I hear Angela Merkel speaking out in favour of Georgia’s NATO membership, my ears up prick up. After all, France and Germany were very sceptical, rightly so in hindsight, of the Anglo-American alliance’s Rambo style campaign to take over Afghanistan and Iraq. Yet, here is the leader of one of European countries that has shown little support for the US neo-imperialistic project in the Middle East seemingly lending its support to a campaign with similar overtones in the Caucasus.
This makes me think there may be much more substance behind these developments. About a decade ago people on the left of the political spectrum were speculating about the existence of massive hydrocarbon reserves under the Caspian Sea. It was argued that the major world powers would start vying with one another to gain control of territory in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea and so to get their hands on the greatest possible share of what could well be the last huge oilfield in the world.
This theory of the Caspian being a hydrocarbon El Dorado has been debunked; for example:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/86
Despite this, everything that America has been doing in the region supports the Caspian Sea theory. First Afghanistan, then Iraq and now Georgia. A circle is gradually being drawn around the Caspian. So perhaps recent events in Georgia do fit into a wider pattern.
If this analysis is correct, Russia could only have won the first battle, but not the war. The West here may have embarked on a drawn-out campaign in which the carrot of NATO and EU membership is dangled before the eyes of people in Georgia and other Caucasian countries. This is probably an enticing proposition to a great many people in these countries. If the majority of the population in such countries can be shown to support these goals, this can be portrayed with considerable justification as a manifestation of their right to self-determination. Russia can then be cast in the mould of aggressive bully boy trampling on the right of self-determination of its former subject peoples. This is a long-term propaganda campaign in which the Russians could be defeated using ideological as well as physical weapons.
One key player here is Turkey. Georgia’s potential EU membership obviously makes no geopolitical sense unless Turkey first accedes. If the strategy I have outlined above really exists, then Turkey’s EU accession process will have to be accelerated. Cyprus is obviously a major obstacle to this. Perhaps this year could see a ‘miracle settlement’ of this long-standing problem, after all. Simply because it stands in the way of achieving much more important goals.
Is this idle speculation, or does it strike a chord with anybody else?
