by -mikkie2- » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:33 am
Personally, I think that this time is not a good time for negotiations. The situation in Turkey is pretty dire and my main fear is that Erdogan is perhaps using Cyprus as a way to bring things to a head between the nationalist and liberal elements in Turkey.
I can understand why the start of talks have been delayed to September, in the hope that the situation Turkey clears up. Lets hope it does.
The other factor is the changes that will be happening in the US come Novemebr time when the Americans go to the polls to elect a new president. The Turks are rushing to conclude talks by the end of 2008 (as Talat has been wanting) not because of the EU but because of the change of leadership in the US. Obama I would think will not be as considerate to the Turks as Bush has been. Obama seems to be the favourite to win.
I also said in a previous post that the 'trnc' is bankrupt. There is no money. Turkey is probably fed up paying for the upkeep of the north and quite frankly, the Turkish economy is not doing that great if you look at the huge deficits that are getting even larger by the month and very nervous foreign investors with an itchy 'sell' trigger finger.
I am afraid to say, that it may come to pass that the TC's may regret relying so much on Turkey for so long. They'd better be prepared for the economic shock that a solution will bring. That goes for the GC's too! Christofias says nice words about his vision but he has conveniently ommitted talking about the economic consequences that a solution will bring in the shorter term. It will be very painful and unpalatable for many people and us GC's will have to carry the TC's for a few years before things settle down.