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[repulsewarrior]

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When troops opened fire in the streets of Mogadishu in early May, it was a tragically familiar scene in war-torn Somalia. Except on this day, soldiers weren’t fighting Islamist militias or warlords. They were combating a mob of tens of thousands rioting over soaring food prices.


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This year, Somalia claims the unenviable distinction of being the state most at risk of failure. In many ways, Somalia has failed already, as the unpopular transitional government lacks control of the streets of Mogadishu—much less the rest of the country. The loose coalition of Islamic clerics and militia leaders that captured the capital in 2006 was routed in the early weeks of 2007 with the help of Ethiopian troops, who have since stayed on to battle the remnants of the Islamist insurgency. The fighting has yet to produce anything resembling a victor; if anything, the country’s clan chaos continues unabated in the unruly streets, while pirates stalk the waters offshore. What the fighting has successfully produced is a refugee nightmare, with some 700,000 people fleeing Mogadishu last year.

Somalia’s disorder is generally eclipsed by the humanitarian disaster in Darfur, a situation notable for its remarkable lack of progress. The spillover effects of this troubled region continue to pull Sudan and its neighbors closer to the brink, with worsening refugee crises around the region and escalating skirmishes between rebels backed by the governments in Chad and Sudan. All told, sub-Saharan Africa is home to seven of this year’s 10 most vulnerable states, with four of them in the top five. Zimbabwe’s slide in this year’s index reflects the country’s out-of-control inflation, 80 percent unemployment, and the fact that thousands flee to neighboring Botswana and South Africa every week. The country’s fortunes, further spoiled by this year’s election dispute, are likely to continue to suffer before Zimbabweans can expect a respite.


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Of course, the countries appearing among the 60 weakest states are not always there because of unforeseen disasters. Take Israel, which has slid in the rankings each year and now makes its first appearance in the top 60. Israel’s inability to fully integrate its Arab minority, its sharp economic disparities, and the increased factionalization of its political leaders did not arise overnight. And though Israel owes much of its ranking to conditions in the West Bank, the continued hardships in the territories cannot be divorced from the stability of Israel itself. It shows that the fates of neighbors can be just as critical to the fortunes of otherwise stable states. And that is a reality that should shock no one.


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Bangladesh took this year’s hardest fall, set off in part by postponed elections, a feuding, deadlocked government, and the imposition of emergency rule that has dragged on for more than 18 months. These political setbacks were followed by greater economic hardships after a devastating cyclone in November flooded large swaths of cropland and left 1.5 million people homeless. In nearby Pakistan, also one of this year’s worst performers, a beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf sparked waves of violent protests when he dismissed the head of the Supreme Court and declared martial law. In a tragic close to the year, the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto left many wondering about the future prospects of this fragile, nuclear-armed state.

Ironically, Bangladesh and Pakistan are the world’s top two contributors of U.N. peacekeepers, often deploying troops to the very countries enjoying this year’s biggest advances. Pakistanis constitute the largest national U.N. contingent operating in Liberia. More than 9,000 Bangladeshi troops wear U.N. blue helmets around the world, a third of them in the Ivory Coast. It is a reminder that while helping to maintain peace abroad might be an attractive national project, keeping the peace at home can be even more elusive.


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Record oil prices have failed to improve the poor fortunes of the world’s most vulnerable states.

Last year, ExxonMobil’s revenues—$404 billion—exceeded the GDPs of more than 160 countries. It was, quite simply, a banner year for oil companies, with a string of record-breaking profits as the price of oil nearly doubled. But if it was a phenomenal time to be an oil executive, it was hardly the best moment to be the citizen of an oil-producing country. The incredible fortunes of the oil market rarely translate into social fortunes on the ground.


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And, according to the World Bank, which last year deemed the West Bank “a shattered economic space,” GDP per capita has plunged 40 percent since 2000. More than half the population lives below the poverty line.


http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... 350&page=7