The bicommunal study that we have been discussing is finally going ahead this week, and I print here, for your information, the final questionnaire. Many new questions have been added, while others have been removed due to lack of space.
The polling will be completed within May, and I will inform you of the preliminary findings early in June. I thank you all once more for your input and suggestions, some of which I incorporated and some of which I did not ...
Options for Peace:
Mapping the possibilities for a Comprehensive Settlement in Cyprus
Good afternoon, we are from [name of survey company], and we would like to ask you a few questions and hear your views regarding the Cyprus Problem. More particularly we will be asking you what form you believe a Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Problem should take, and ask for your patience in order to complete the questionnaire.
A. Underlying Attitudes
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? (Words in brackets relate to the Greek Cypriot questionnaire)
(1- Totally disagree, 2- Partly disagree, 3- Neither agree nor disagree, 4- Partly agree, 5- Totally agree)
A1. We have much in common with the Greek Cypriots (/ Turkish Cypriots).
A2. The only way to solve the Cyprus Problem is through an armed struggle.
A3. To achieve a Comprehensive Settlement, we have to understand and seek to alleviate the concerns of the Greek Cypriots (/ Turkish Cypriots), as well as our own concerns.
A4. I would not mind having Greek Cypriot (/ Turkish Cypriot) neighbours.
A5. We should all strive, from now on, to be Cypriot first, and Greek or Turkish second.
A6. If my cultural rights and my security can be guaranteed, I can imagine myself living under a local administration that is primarily Greek Cypriot (/ Turkish Cypriot).
A7. The Greek Cypriots (/ Turkish Cypriots) cannot be trusted to adhere to an agreement we might make with them.
A8. Religion is important in my life.
A9. Our side is also to blame for the current situation of the Cyprus Problem.
A10. The two communities, Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot, should go their separate ways from now on.
A11. I would find it natural and acceptable if someone in my family chose to marry a Greek Cypriot (/ Turkish Cypriot).
A12. Cyprus should really be considered a Turkish (/ Hellenic) island.
What are your motives for wanting a solution of the Cyprus Problem? (Words in brackets relate to the Turkish Cypriot questionnaire)
(1 – Not at all a motive, 2 – A secondary motive, 3 – A primary motive)
A13. To have an integrated Cypriot state, with jurisdiction over the whole island.
A14. To allow refugees to return to their ancestral homes.
A15. To have our own Greek Cypriot (/ Turkish Cypriot) federated state.
A16. To avoid the risk of another war.
A17. To improve our economic condition.
A18. To have a stronger voice in the international community.
A19. To be able to live anywhere in Cyprus.
A20. To be able to enjoy the benefits of EU membership.
A21. To be re-united with the Turkish Cypriots (/ Greek Cypriots).
A22. To put an end to the presence of the Turkish Army.
A23. To put an end to the existence of the Greek Cypriot National Guard.
A24. To put an end to foreign interference in the affairs of Cyprus.
A25. When do you believe it is best for negotiations for a Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Problem to begin again?
(1- They should begin straight away, without further delay, 2- They should begin in a few months, when the necessary preparation has taken place, 3- The should begin in one to two years, when conditions within Turkey and internationally will have improved, 4- They should begin a little while before Turkey joins the European Union, so that the Solution and the Accession of Turkey happen simultaneously, 5- There should no longer be negotiations between the two communities, they lead nowhere)
B. Political Trust
How would you evaluate the Greek Cypriot leader, Mr Tassos Papadopoulos, in relation to efforts to solve the Cyprus Problem ?
Tassos Papadopoulos is:
(1-Totally Disagree, 2- Partly Disagree, 3- Neither Agree nor Disagree, 4-Partly Agree, 5-Totally Agree)
B1. Committed to the re-unification of Cyprus.
B2. A true representative of Greek Cypriot public opinion.
B3. Willing to understand and take into account the concerns of the Turkish Cypriots as well.
B4. Capable of sincere and open-minded negotiations such will lead to an agreed solution.
How would you evaluate the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Mehmet Ali Talat, in relation to efforts to solve the Cyprus Problem ?
Mehmet Ali Talat is:
(1-Totally Disagree, 2- Partly Disagree, 3- Neither Agree nor Disagree, 4-Partly Agree, 5-Totally Agree)
B5. Committed to the re-unification of Cyprus.
B6. A true representative of Turkish Cypriot public opinion.
B7. Willing to understand and take into account the concerns of the Greek Cypriots as well.
B8. Capable of sincere and open-minded negotiations such that will lead to an agreed solution.
To what extent do you trust the involvement of the following countries and organisations, in the affairs of Cyprus?
(1 – Not at all, 2 – A little, 3 – Substantially, 4 – Very much)
B9. Greece
B10. Turkey
B11. United Kingdom
B12. United States of America
B13. Russian Federation
B14. European Union
B15. Organisation of Islamic Countries
B16. United Nations Organisation
Sections C to J
From this point on, the questionnaire will focus on the particular provisions of a possible Peace Plan. For each question, the available responses will be as follows:
Totally Unacceptable: This proposal is completely unacceptable under any circumstances.
Tolerable if necessary: This proposal is not what I would like to see, but I would be willing to put up with it for the sake of reaching an agreed settlement.
Acceptable arrangement: This is a proposal I can accept without difficulty.
Very Positive arrangement: This is a proposal which would make the overall plan much more acceptable in my mind, and it would be a strong reason for me to vote “Yes” in a future referendum.
I am not sure: This proposal has both positive and negative aspects for me, and I cannot at this moment decide which aspect outweighs the other, or, I do not fully understand the implications of this proposal.
C. General Improvements to the Peace Plan
How would you evaluate each of the following potential features of a future version of the UN Peace Plan?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
C1. The federal Presidential Council to be elected directly by the people, not by the Senate.
C2. A political system to be instituted, such that will encourage the development of bicommunal political parties.
C3. Areas of archaeological and environmental significance to be part of a Federal zone, to be administered and protected directly by the Federal Government.
C4. A common and mutually acceptable view of the recent history of Cyprus to be taught in all the schools of the island, under the responsibility of the Federal Government.
C5. Provision to be made to encourage the development of Bicommunal schools, for parents who might voluntarily choose to send their children there.
C6. Provision to be made in the Constitution for the coordination between the two constituent states, to harmonise their policy and legislation on matters related to trade, industry and tourism.
C7. A legal framework to be instituted, such that will encourage the development of Bicommunal business ventures.
C8. Bizonality (the provision that most Greek Cypriots will have to live in the south and most Turkish Cypriots will have to live in the north) to be a temporary regime, until trust between the two communities grows, after which time the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to be allowed to mix freely.
D. Security
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Security Arrangements, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
D1. On the issue of Security, the UN Plan provided for the continuation of the Treaty of Guarantee between Greece, Turkey and the UK, which means that each one of those three countries will be allowed to intervene militarily anywhere in Cyprus. Furthermore, under the Treaty of Alliance, Greece and Turkey will each maintain troops in Cyprus, 6000 each until the year 2011, 3000 each until the year 2018, while after that, 950 Greek soldiers and 650 Turkish soldiers will remain on the island indefinitely, but Greece, Turkey and Cyprus will review troop levels every three years with the objective of total withdrawal, if all parties agree.
D2. One alternative Security System is as follows: The Treaty of Guarantee will be maintained, but with various amendments. On the issue of troops, the Greek and Turkish contingents will depart within a few years, after which time Cyprus will be totally demilitarised. As for intervention rights, Greece will have the right to intervene in order to protect the security of the Greek Cypriot constituent state only, while Turkey will have the right to intervene in order to protect the security of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state only. If Cyprus comes under attack from any other country, it will not have the means for its own protection, but the guarantor powers – Greece, Turkey and Britain – will each be expected to come immediately to Cyprus’ defence.
D3. Another alternative for security is the development of a Cypriot-European security system, as follows: Greek and Turkish troops will be replaced by a European Security force, under a European commander, and this force will also include Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot soldiers, who will together receive military training in other European countries. This new security force, comprised of units for land, sea and air defence, will be responsible to deal with all internal and external threats. Until Turkey joins the European Union, however, a safety valve for the direct protection of the Turkish Cypriots by Turkey will also be in place, if the above described system of European Security fails to protect them from some particular threat.
D4. Another alternative for Security is as follows: The Treaty of Guarantee will cease to apply after the settlement, and instead Cyprus will become a member of NATO. All Greek and Turkish troops will gradually depart, to be replaced by a NATO force, composed of soldiers from various NATO countries, and including units for land, sea and air defence. Greece and Turkey will not have any unilateral intervention rights, other than their input in the decision making of NATO command – which NATO command will be making all the decisions that relate to the Security of Cyprus.
E. Property rights
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Property Rights, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
E1. On the issue of Property rights, the UN Plan provided for the return of some territory to Greek Cypriot administration – making the Turkish Cypriot state about 28% of Cyprus – and in that area which will come under Greek Cypriot administration all property will be returned to original owners, while current occupants will be re-housed elsewhere. As for Greek Cypriot property that will remain within the Turkish Cypriot state and Turkish Cypriot property that will remain within the Greek Cypriot state, original individual owners will be entitled to 1/3rd of their property, but current occupants will have priority control of a particular property they are using if they are themselves refugees or if they have made a major investment on the property in question. Agricultural land will not be returned to original owners if this necessitates sub-dividing the property into plots of less than 5 donums, or less than 2 donums for irrigable land. For any property not returned, the original owner will be compensated.
E2. One alternative approach on the issue of property rights is as follows: More territory will be returned to Greek Cypriot administration, making the Turkish Cypriot state 18% - 20% of Cyprus, and in these returned territories all properties will be given back to their original owners, but in return no Greek Cypriot will be able to reclaim property in the Turkish Cypriot state – all such property will be compensated.
E3. Another alternative approach on the issue of property rights is as follows: Original owners will retain ownership of all their property, but current occupants will be entitled to stay in the properties they are currently using by paying rent for them, and this right to remain in a property by paying rent will apply for 15 years. At the same time, individual owners and individual current occupants will be encouraged to make their own private deals, if they so wish, to exchange, purchase or sell the property in question.
E4. Another alternative on the issue of property rights is as follows: Original owners will be able to reclaim and use all their property, except that in which refugees live or that on which there has been major investment – and for such properties they will be compensated. In case an original owner is not entitled to receive his actual home, then as compensation he will be entitled to a new home built for him in the same town or village. The building of these new residences will be financed by international donors.
E5. A final alternative on the issue of property rights is as follows: All refugees will be entitled to reclaim and use their original residence, and all those who currently live in these residences will be entitled to a new house built for them in the same town or village. The building of these new residences will be financed by international donors.
F. Residence and Voting Rights
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Residence and Voting Rights, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
F1. On the issue of residence and voting rights in the other constituent state, the UN Plan provided for the following arrangements. For the first six years, no Greek Cypriots will be allowed to settle in the north, and equivalently no Turkish Cypriots in the south. From year 6 to year 9, up to 6% of each village or municipality may hail from the other constituent state, from year 10 to year 14 up to 12% of each village or municipality may hail from the other constituent state, from year 14 to year 18, up to 18% of each village or municipality may hail from the other constituent state, while after the 19th year a permanent limit of 33% would apply as the maximum percent of Greek Cypriot residents of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state. These Greek Cypriots would have the right to vote in all elections as residents of the Turkish Cypriot state, except for the Federal Senate where Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots will vote separately according to ethnic origin.
F2. An alternative approach on the issue of residence and voting rights, is to reduce the permanent limit for Greek Cypriot residents of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state, from 33% to 29% of the population, but lift the time restrictions so that as many as wish to relocate – within these permanent limits - will be able to do so as soon as they wish, beginning from the next day after the settlement. Voting rights will be as above, in other words this 29% will be able to vote in all Turkish Cypriot elections, except for the Federal Senate where they will vote as Greek Cypriots. The equivalent to the above will of course apply for Turkish Cypriots living in the south.
F3. Another approach on the issue of residence and voting rights, is to further reduce the permanent limit for Greek Cypriot residents of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state, from 33% down to 25%, without time restrictions to relocation, but also lift voting restrictions, so that this 25%, but no more than 25%, will be able to vote in all Constituent State elections and all Federal elections as full residents of the Turkish Cypriot Constituent State. The equivalent to the above will of course apply for Turkish Cypriots living in the south.
F4. Another approach on the issue of residence and voting rights, is to have no limit to the number of Greek Cypriots who may choose to reside in the north, but with the following arrangement for voting rights: Such Greek Cypriots will vote for the Greek Cypriot constituent state government, and for the Greek Cypriot members of the Federal Government, while for municipal elections only they will vote at the place where they reside in the north. The equivalent to the above will of course apply for Turkish Cypriots living in the south.
F5. A final approach on the issue of residence and voting rights, is to institute a system of weighted voting, so that when Greek Cypriots in the north - or Turkish Cypriots in the south – are very few, their vote will weigh more so as to give them an effective political voice, while when they are very many their vote will weigh less in order to place a limit on their political influence. More particularly, if Greek Cypriots in the north – or Turkish Cypriots in the south - are 2% to 3% of the constituent state’s population their vote will be weighted upwards to 5%, if they are 6% or 7% their vote will be weighted up to 10%, etc., while 20% will be the maximum weight Greek Cypriot votes in the north - or Turkish Cypriot votes in the south - can have, irrespective of the number of residents. Other than the limitations imposed by this voting system, everyone will be allowed to live where he wishes and vote where he lives.
G. Immigrants from Turkey (Settlers)
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Immigrants (Settlers) from Turkey, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
G1. On the issue of immigrants from Turkey (Settlers), the UN Plan provided for a list of 45,000 persons that would be given citizenship of Cyprus the day after the settlement, and furthermore, allowed for anyone who has already been a permanent resident in Cyprus for at least five years before the agreement to be able to claim citizenship by naturalisation four years after the settlement. In practice, this would have meant that 60,000 to 75,000 immigrants (Settlers) would have been able to remain in Cyprus and become its citizens.
G2. One alternative on the issue of immigrants (Settlers) from Turkey, is to allow the same list of 45,000 persons as per the UN Plan, but ensure that these are the only ones who will remain. Anyone above that number will be required to return to Turkey within 2 years of the settlement, and will be offered monetary compensation of USD 20,000 per family – paid for by Turkey and International Donors - to help finance their relocation.
G3. Another alternative on the issue of immigrants (Settlers) from Turkey, is to create two lists: The first list, composed of 30,000 persons, will be entitled to remain in Cyprus, while the second list, of another 30,000 persons, will be entitled to emigrate to other EU countries or to the USA, unless of course they prefer to return to Turkey. All such emigrants will be entitled to a monetary compensation of USD 20,000 per family, paid for by Turkey and International Donors. Those who have lived in Cyprus for the greater proportion of their lives will have priority to be on the first list, while everyone else who has been given TRNC citizenship will be on the second list.
G4. Another alternative on the issue of immigrants (Settlers) from Turkey is to acknowledge citizenship to those married to Turkish Cypriots, those born in Cyprus and those who arrived here before the age of 18, while also granting a permanent residence permit to their parents, who would remain citizens and voters of Turkey with the right to live and work in Cyprus. Everyone else will be required to return to Turkey within 2 years of the settlement, and will be compensated USD 20,000 per family, paid for by Turkey and International Donors, to help finance their relocation.
G5. A final alternative on the issue of immigrants from Turkey (Settlers) is as follows: Those who got married to Turkish Cypriots and those who are children of mixed marriages will be entitled to stay, while everyone else will be relocated to their original place of origin in Turkey. The government of Turkey will be responsible to give new homes to these people, and will also assist them with finding new jobs, at their place of origin.
H. Decision making mechanisms
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Decision Making Mechanisms, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
H1. On the issue of decision making mechanisms in the Federal Government, the UN Plan provided for a system whereby all decisions would require the positive participation of both communities. For instance in the Senate, for a law to be passed it would be necessary for at least one quarter of Turkish Cypriot present senators and one quarter of Greek Cypriot present Senators to agree with it, as well as the requirement that at least half of the overall number of present Senators must be in favour of the proposal. Similarly in the Presidential Council, at least one member from each community must be in favour of an executive decision, before it can take effect.
H2. One alternative on the issue of decision making mechanisms of the Federal Government, is to have a list of particularly critical issues for which positive participation, as described above, will be required, while for other, less important issues, a simple majority in favour will be sufficient.
H3. Another alternative on the issue of decision making for the Federal Government, is to remove the requirement for positive participation, but to give each community a right of appeal in case it believes that a decision is unconstitutional or that it hurts the fundamental interests of the community. In the case of such an appeal, the issue will be forwarded to a neutral adjudicating body, and this body will make the final decision.
H4. A final alternative on the issue of decision making mechanisms of the Federal Government, is to maintain the requirement for positive participation in decision making, but to institute an electoral system whereby the politicians will have a political motive to be co-operative. More particularly, cross voting would be instituted for the Senate as follows: Greek Cypriots will also vote for Turkish Cypriot Senators, but their vote will be weighted to 25% of the total vote, while Turkish Cypriots will also vote for Greek Cypriot Senators, and their vote will be weighted to 25% of the total vote. In this way, a politician will still have to satisfy his own community’s fundamental needs in order to be elected, but he will also have to convince the other community’s voters that he is open minded, respectful and co-operative.
I. Legal Status
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Legal Status, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
I1. On the issue of Legal Status, the UN Plan approach was that the two sides would not be required to agree about the previous legal status of the two sides’ administration, and instead a “virgin birth” would take place, leading to a “new state of affairs”. The two sides would be asked “to agree about their future without necessarily agreeing on their past”.
I2. One alternative, on the issue of Legal Status, is a formula that will be included in the preamble of the constitution as follows: First, it will be affirmed that the Republic of Cyprus was founded in 1960 as a Bicommunal Republic, to be jointly administered by the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots according to the constitution. After the unrest of 1963-4, the Republic of Cyprus entered a period of constitutional crisis. During this period, and up until the present day, the Greek Cypriots maintained a temporary caretaker government of the Republic of Cyprus, out of the necessity to maintain the continuity of the Republic, while in the same period the Turkish Cypriots formed a temporary Turkish Cypriot administration, out of the necessity to manage their everyday affairs on an interim basis. And now, with the acceptance of the Comprehensive Settlement agreement, the Republic of Cyprus is overcoming its constitutional crisis and returning to normal Bicommunal control, while evolving into a Bizonal – Bicommunal Federation through the approval of a new constitution.
I3. Another alternative on the issue of legal status, is to clearly establish in the preamble of the constitution that each of the two communities has separate sovereignty, and that they freely enter into an agreement to form a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation, on the strength of the popular mandate of the two sovereign communities. Each community will then have the right to secede from the Federation if such a course of action is approved by a referendum of the community, and in such a case each side will have the right to apply for separate international recognition. Before recognition can be granted, however, all territorial obligations that arise from the Comprehensive Settlement agreement must first have been fulfilled.
J. Implementation Guarantees
How acceptable do you consider each of the following proposals for Implementation Guarantees, evaluated as a whole package?
(1 – totally unacceptable, 2 – tolerable if it is necessary, 3 – acceptable arrangement, 4 – very positive arrangement, 9 – I am not sure)
J1. On the issue of implementation guarantees, the UN Plan provided for guarantees to be given by the three guarantor powers, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, that in case the constitutional order was not upheld then each of them would have the right to intervene in order to re-establish the constitutional order. Also, a multinational force under UN mandate would be stationed in Cyprus, with its mission being to oversee the implementation of the solution. This UN force would act to encourage the two sides to be co-operative and keep their word, but it would not have any authority to actually enforce the agreement.
J2. One alternative approach is to guarantee implementation through a Security Council resolution under chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which means that if any side does not keep its part of the agreement, other countries will have the right to use force, or sanctions, in collaboration with the UN Security Council, against the responsible party. This resolution would cover the responsibilities of the Greek Cypriots, the Turkish Cypriots, Turkey and Greece, so whichever of these sides fails to keep up to its part of the bargain will face the possibility of serious consequences.
J3. Another alternative approach on the issue of implementation guarantees is for all the sides involved, Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots, Greece and Turkey, to sign a binding protocol with the European Union, which protocol will clearly define the responsibilities of each side regarding the implementation of the solution and also define specific consequences for particular acts of non-implementation. Depending on what the breach is, the consequence might be a monetary fine or the withdrawal of some particular EU-related benefit.
K. Direct trade
The issue of direct trade is being widely discussed these days. How would you evaluate each of the following possible agreements between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots on the matter of direct trade?
(1-Totally Unacceptable, 2-Tolerable if necessary, 3- An acceptable arrangement, 4- A very positive arrangement)
K1. The Greek Cypriots to allow the Turkish Cypriots to trade with other countries, through the direct administration of ports in the north by the European Commission, and in return the Turkish Cypriots to allow the return of Greek Cypriot refugees in the closed city of Famagusta, under UN supervision.
K2. The Greek Cypriots to allow the Turkish Cypriots to trade with other countries, through the direct administration of ports in the north by the European Commission, and in return the Turkish Cypriots to stop construction over Greek Cypriot properties.
K3. The Greek Cypriots to allow the Turkish Cypriots to trade with other countries, through the direct administration of ports in the north by the European Commission, and in return the Turkish Cypriots to repudiate the TRNC and re-define themselves as “the Interim Turkish Cypriot authority, pending the re-unification of Cyprus as a Bizonal - Bicommunal Federation”.
K4. The Greek Cypriots to allow the Turkish Cypriots to trade with other countries, through the direct administration of ports in the north by the European Commission, without receiving anything in return, on the logic that if the standard of living of Turkish Cypriots is raised now through direct trade, then the financial burden of a Comprehensive Settlement will be shared more equitably between the two communities.
K5. The whole issue of direct trade to be put aside for now, and instead the leaderships of the two communities to recommence negotiations, without delay, for a Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Problem.
L. Demographics
L1. Age
L2. Gender
L3. Level of Education
L4. Level of Income
L5. District of Residence
L6. Rural / Urban
L7. Status of primary residence: (1 - Land and house of undisputed ownership, 2 - House built on land originally belonging to a refugee. 3 - Land and house originally belonging to a refugee)
L8. Refugee Status
L9. If you are a refugee, and assuming that as part of a Comprehensive Settlement you would be entitled to reclaim your original residence, what would you most likely do with it? (1 - Live in it as my permanent residence, 2 - Use it as a holiday home, 3 – Rent it for income, 4 – Sell it, 9 – I am not sure)
L10. Parents’ country of birth
L11. Own country of birth
L12. Vote in last parliamentary election
L13. Vote in last presidential election
L14. Vote in last April’s referendum
L15. In the context of this research, would you also be interested to participate in a small group discussion on the subject of the Cyprus Problem? (1-Yes, 2-No)
Name: …………………………….. Tel: ………………………..
Address: ……………………………………………………………
