Cyprus-Forum.com

[Alexandros Lordos]

I'm also working on your database with my own analyses, I've found some results that I'm planning to incorporate into my thesis

I suppose you are using some of the data about GC voting patterns?

If you like I can send you the new data files as well, when I have them. A question was added at the last minute on the GC side, concerning what people would vote tomorrow if there was a new parliamentary election - so that might interest you.

[cannedmoose]

I'm using both the GC and TC databases re (hope that's ok btw! I will credit the data to you naturally). It would be great if you can send me the new datasets yes, it would certainly be useful to cross-reference some of the fields. Let me know if you've still got my email, otherwise I'll email you so you have it.

Efharisto para para poli Alexandre.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Cannedmoose,

I've just checked the preliminary data for the question I mentioned just above, and it seems that:

a) AKEL will lose just a little of its previous electoral power - two or three points - and will be the biggest party once more.

b) DIKO will gain at least 5 points, bringing it up to 20% - 22%.

c) DISY will be the big loser of the election - it could end up being as small as the strengthened DIKO, 20% - 22%, while the breakaway political formation of Prodromou et al will get about 6% - 7%, ending up bigger than EDEK, which won't exceed 5%.

Hmm ...

[cannedmoose]

That's good stuff Alex... at least someone responds to my interest in Cypriot politics

Those results pretty much reinforce what I think will happen. I can't see AKEL's vote collapsing all that much, the party discipline is too strong. Do you agree that the Eurovote numbers were largely a result of AKELites not turning up to vote rather than loss of support? From what I heard about the support for Omonia in Makarios Avenue last night, the left are still out there in force

Also, DHKO can only go up, unless something monumental occurs in the next year or so. Quite a few hardliners from DHSY will choose them over Prodromou's defectors. I'd be stunned if the figures were as low as you suggest, that would really be a monumental shift in the Cypriot political spectrum and would certainly push AKEL to the fore. It would certainly spice up my study anyway, fed up of doing graphs showing no change!!

Seriously, once your survey's done and dusted, that data would be gold-dust for my study. Really appreciate if I can get my grubby mits on it for some SPSS manipulation! There'll definitely be a beer in it for you next time I'm in Cyprus anyway!!

Thanks for your response re, you've given me some food for thought this evening...

[boulio]

Alex, by conducting these tests how do you see the general mood of both sides to a new round of negotiotions to solve the cyprus problem.

[brother]

VERY GOOD QUESTION BULIO

[Alexandros Lordos]

Alex, by conducting these tests how do you see the general mood of both sides to a new round of negotiotions to solve the cyprus problem.

Boulio,

I had a question about when negotiations should recommence, and the results were that GCs are very eager to get back to the negotiating table - 50% "immediately", 30% "within a few months, after the necessary preparations have taken place".

The situation is much the same in the TC community, except that there is a somewhat large constituency - about 20% - who think that "further negotiations would be a waste of time, they lead nowhere".

On the questions I had about direct trade, GCs seem to be against any bargain related to direct trade, not even Famagusta, not even stopping construction, not even repudiation of TRNC, and instead they strongly prefer (about 85% !) that negotiations should begin straight away, with the issue of Direct Trade being shelved.

TCs, in contrast, would prefer to see a deal being first made on direct trade, before negotiations recommence, though they can just about tolerate bypassing the issue altogether if negotiations recommence immediately.

On a different note, both communities agree that "in order to reach a comprehensive settlement, we must seek to understand and alleviate the concerns of the other side as well", and furthermore, the GCs strongly agree that "our side is also to blame for the current situation of the Cyprus Problem".

I hope this answers your question.

[boulio]

On a different note, both communities agree that "in order to reach a comprehensive settlement, we must seek to understand and alleviate the concerns of the other side as well", and furthermore, the GCs strongly agree that "our side is also to blame for the current situation of the Cyprus Problem".

I hope this answers your question.

this last paragraph really made me feel hopeful,and yes alex it did answer my question and thank you.

[garbitsch]

Alex, these are very impressive findings. Thanks...

[-mikkie2-]

Alexandre,

Good work once again. Your findings do seem to indicate what many of us suspected to some extent.

For example, DISY looking as though it is loosing more of the electoerate to AKEL and DIKO. This does not surprise me.

From what you say, it seems that the property provisions of any final plan are VITAL to whether the GC;s would accept the plan or not. It also shows the continued disapproval of how the settler issue is handled. This also still seems to be a vital ingredient for acceptability from our side.

However there are glimmers of hope which which give scope for compromise but that is only if the TC leadership is willing to make vital compromises as well. I would not be surprised if the Turks now harden their stance and actually place more demands to Mr Pendegrast when he visits Cyprus.

One final thing, your survey does go against to the myth that the GC's as a whole don't believe they have alot to blame for the situation in Cyprus. I hope our TC friends take note of this.