magikthrill wrote:I thought that the interest rates were set so as no country in the Eurozone has inflation.
Either way, in such a scenario the EU can throw a bunch of money to the RoC to fix up the problem. If Greece has survived with the Euro in 3 years I dont think Cyprus will have a problem.
That is not possible to set one interest rate to affect all the countries at once. Every country has its own economic cycle and it may very well be a case where one country is experiencing a recession while the others are having boom. This effect can even be seen in USA among different states. But this problem in states is usually is solved so easily because there is close to full factor mobility. Capital, labor and other inputs can go from one state to another with relative ease. That is not possible in Europe even though they are trying to achieve as USA one common market.
And it seems there will be a lot if battles in EU before that is ever achieved. Different countries in Europe has different attitudes to economic systems, and this variation is much more than in USA. For example France has got “France social model for development” whatever it is, Scandinavian countries have different systems. And countries like Italy and Spain And Germany has different attitudes about development/ So all prevent such complete integrations. This can be seen recently in France haw they have blocked the liberalization of service sector so that service industries could be free to cross borders like goods in EU. They have prevented this. Service industries is around 65% of the economic activity in EU. This means there is no economic integration among 65% of GDP in EU.
A lot of examples can be given like this and before complete integration there will always be winners and losers by the interest rate policy set in Brussels, and small countries are usually going to be at the loosing end because ECB will take big countries economies first into account before they can think of small countries.
But as I have said full economic integration and common monetary policy does not make sense if there is no political union. And EU countries are so far from each other to achieve that in the coming 15 years.
p.s. Greece has survived this because they have relied on the fiscal policy so much in the absence of monetary policy. Hence they have been given budget deficits close to %6.5. And all this means the debt of Greece is growing, and debt service is getting harder. IF they do not cut back their fiscal expenditures and tame the budget deficit there will come a time where capital markets will penalize Greece for its irresponsible behavior by charging higher interest rates to Greek bonds.