Cyprus-Forum.com

by **GAVCARoCOM** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 12:24 am

http://www.turkishny.com/index.php?opti ... Itemid=675

Turkish Cypriot aide Özdil Nami, UN envoy Taye-Brook Zerihoun and Greek Cypriot aide George Iacovou (L-R) shake hands at a news conference after a meeting on June 20. Leaders of ethnically divided Cyprus will meet on July 1 to push forward the island's peace process.
A new peace process in Cyprus offers the best opportunity since the Turkish military intervention of 1974 to solve the intractable division of the island, an international think tank states in a report to be published today.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) warns, however, that both the Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides know this is only a beginning and that it could be the last chance for reunification for the foreseeable future. Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat are demonstrating the political will to make the current UN-mediated talks succeed, the ICG report notes. Talat and Christofias agreed at a key meeting in late March to resume reunification efforts in Cyprus. Technical committees bringing together officials from Turkish and Greek Cyprus have been working since then on contentious matters to pave the way for direct talks between the leaders.

Noting that the two leaders are expected to meet again on July 1 and announce agreement on measures to improve bi-communal coordination in health, road safety and the environment, the report added that either then or at the latest in mid-July, they should press forward and announce a Sept. 1 start for full-fledged negotiations. Ankara remains suspicious of the Greek Cypriots' intentions, despite a turnabout in their position under Christofias, and Greek Cypriots are still convinced Turkey is insincere and unreliable, the report says, displaying distrust between Greek Cypriots and Turkey as a key obstacle.

Despite the overall hopeful tone within the report, certain recommendations made by the ICG to Ankara and the Greek Cypriots are highly ambitious and seem difficult to carry out since they target the heart of key disagreements. The ICG has recommended that the Greek Cypriot administration implement measures "unilaterally, to show commitment to a carefully negotiated comprehensive final settlement based on the well-established UN body of work, the European Commission's Direct Trade Regulation to allow free, direct trade between Turkish Cypriots and the EU through their own ports."

As for Turkey, the group similarly urges that it implement measures "unilaterally, to show commitment to a carefully negotiated, comprehensive final settlement based on the well-established UN body of work, the pledge in the 2005 Additional Protocol to the EU-Turkey Customs Union and open airports and seaports to Greek Cypriot traffic."

Nonetheless, Hugh Pope, a senior ICG analyst, believes that all of the parties -- Turkish Foreign Ministry officials as well as Turkish and Greek Cypriot officials -- are very well aware that making eventual progress on the Cyprus issue is vital for every parties' interests.

"The report argues that pieces of the puzzle are so nearly in place. This is the time when everyone should move to the middle," Pope told Today's Zaman

When reminded of assertiveness of recommendations made to the parties, Pope said these were solely options that would make reaching a resolution both "easier and quicker." He went on: "The main thing is perception and distrust. If these two leaders cannot reach agreement on reunification, then nobody can. Plus, Ankara is very well aware of the problem, and the Foreign Ministry is determined to remove this problem from its agenda. Greek Cypriots also see that absence of a solution is dead-end for them."

A narrow but unique window

The report admits that "the window of opportunity is small," clearly warning that it could start to close in late 2009 as preparations begin for Turkish Cypriot parliamentary and presidential elections in February and April 2010, respectively.

"If the 2008/2009 window of opportunity closes without result, there will be no political will to reopen discussion of reunification for many years. Especially in light of the bruising experience of Kosovo, however, there would be little international inclination to recognize the independence of the Turkish Cypriots. The drift towards de facto partition would continue at significant cost for all," the ICG says. Analysts and the Cypriot leaders from both sides have expressed concern at the probable impact of an ongoing closure case against Turkey's ruling party -- which has firmly pursued pro-settlement policies on Cyprus since coming to power in 2002 -- on the future of ongoing Cyprus talks.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), soon after its first election victory in 2002, launched a taboo-breaking Cyprus initiative and, reversing a decades-old policy, backed a UN plan to reunite this island, agreeing to a unified Cyprus state of Turkish and Greek Cypriots and eventual troop withdrawal. But the plan, approved by the Turkish Cypriots, was rejected by the Greek Cypriots.

"There will always be an excuse not to fix Cyprus. But there are important people in Ankara who are aware of how great it would be if it is done right now," Pope reiterated, when asked about the possible effects of current political unrest in Turkey. "Chances of success would be higher if there was less internal political turmoil in Turkey due to the court case against the AK Party, but domestic disputes do not rule out progress on Cyprus," the report states.

Ankara’s EU conundrum

Turkey's EU membership bid, which has largely stalled over the Cyprus issue, was given considerable space in the ICG report, which underlined that the Cyprus conflict is deeply embedded in the legal structure of the EU-Turkey relationship.

"In December 2006, Turkey's failure to implement its promise under the 'Additional Protocol' to open its airports and seaports to Greek Cypriot traffic caused Brussels to freeze the opening of eight of the 35 negotiating chapters with it. The negotiations will officially come up for review in 2009. The only likely scenario under which Turkey would open the ports is in the context of a comprehensive peace deal. Failure to do so, however, would result in an EU-Turkey crisis," the report says, before quoting a senior European Commission official as saying bluntly:

"The year 2009 will be critical. We will expect movement from Turkey on the ports issue. We'll report to the European Council if nothing happens, and then we'll have a big doubt [about] the Turkish accession process … it will be deadly if Turkey appears to be the obstacle [to a Cyprus settlement]." The report goes on to suggest that Turkey should thus seek the earliest opportunity to implement the "Additional Protocol, even if initially only partially and as a temporary measure in support of negotiations on the island. It should act unilaterally, however, and at a time and in a manner intended to underline its goodwill for maximum impact in the EU and Cyprus. The many benefits the measure would bring Turkey - in trade, improved image, EU convergence and movement on the Cyprus problem - suggest that it would be a major opportunity, not a concession."