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[Johnson&Johnson]

Tim

I like malthus.. also that russian guy kondratieff... i think there is a lot of credence to his theories.. maybe we are now seeing the first sings of k-winter ? who really knows.

i think you might be bang on the money about a final brief upswing in equities/ 5th wave before the final capitulation into oblivion.

as for the inflation-deflation argument, well i have a vested interest in deflation as inflation or stagflation would wipe out my savings, and i sat out the global housing bubble so i am not in debt. deflation for me is the lesser of two evils.

inflation is good for those guys who mortgaged themselves up to the neck to buy an overvalued and overhyped house, as it erodes the value of the debt over time. bad for me, as i am a chronic and incurable saver who pays cash for everything, even houses !

good debating with you,

[Johnson&Johnson]

one more thing - i am very cautious about the BRIC powerhouses which will supposedly supercede the west as the new world economic giants

i think china is overhyped; its simply an offshored factory for western consumers, nothing more.

expect to see a lot of pain there over the next few years

[Tim Drayton]

Tim

I like malthus.. also that russian guy kondratieff... i think there is a lot of credence to his theories.. maybe we are now seeing the first sings of k-winter ? who really knows.

i think you might be bang on the money about a final brief upswing in equities/ 5th wave before the final capitulation into oblivion.

as for the inflation-deflation argument, well i have a vested interest in deflation as inflation or stagflation would wipe out my savings, and i sat out the global housing bubble so i am not in debt. deflation for me is the lesser of two evils.

inflation is good for those guys who mortgaged themselves up to the neck to buy an overvalued and overhyped house, as it erodes the value of the debt over time. bad for me, as i am a chronic and incurable saver who pays cash for everything, even houses !

good debating with you,

I am also speaking from the wallet, as I have been sitting tight and holding onto my shares since the upset last summer.
Of course, even in a bear market, certain companies and sectors will still do well. Hope that includes mine!

[Tim Drayton]

one more thing - i am very cautious about the BRIC powerhouses which will supposedly supercede the west as the new world economic giants

i think china is overhyped; its simply an offshored factory for western consumers, nothing more.

expect to see a lot of pain there over the next few years

I read an interesting article a few years ago in one of the quality American newspapers arguing that it was India, not China, that the world should watch.

[Nikitas]

India seems to produce more innovation than China, despite the latter's greater industrial capacity. The Reva electric car is one such example.

[Johnson&Johnson]

im rather more bullish on india too.. dont know why, could be the innovation thing, also the english is better

work closely with chinese/ china and i can tell u, the quality and workmanship of everything they do is still utter crap. long way to go.

[Tim Drayton]

im rather more bullish on india too.. dont know why, could be the innovation thing, also the english is better

work closely with chinese/ china and i can tell u, the quality and workmanship of everything they do is still utter crap. long way to go.

Anbody who, like me, has lived in a Gulf country (I lived in Qatar) ends up having a great deal of respect for Indians. They literally run the whole private sector in countries like Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Dubai has been one the world's great economic success stories of late, and just about everything there is actually run by Indians (and to a lesser extent Pakistanis and Sri Lankans).
I used to ask myself "If they can do it here, why can't they achieve the same success in their own country?" This gradually appears to be happening.
Part of the explanation, of course, may be the old saw that it is the hard-working and dynamic elements in any community that emigrate, and the Indians working in the Gulf countries may not be typical of their compatriates as a whole.