by Nikitas » Mon Jun 02, 2008 6:45 am
As long as we do not have a clear explanation of the details, and the devil is in the details, it is impossible to make sense of this BBF thing.
If, as is the indication, Turkey will have a strong say in what happens in the TC part of the BBF, the Turkish embassy will be the real seat of power. From there it is easy to predict the developments in the north and the attempts to undermine the BBF. One for instance, a settler is elected as President of the TC state and by virtue of the rotating presidency presides over the whole of Cyprus for some part of the presidential term.
Another instance: by virtue of "political equality" the TC state nixes plans to implement a compulsory EU programme on the island. By virtue of "one legal personality" the EU regards the whole of Cyprus as non compliant and imposes one of those fines (has done against Greece and other states often in the past). Then the federal government is caught between the EU, the TCs and the GCs and is efectively paralysed. It will not be able to seek separate consideration for each "component state" since that would be tantamount to asking for partition.
Adopting a cynical approach it is easy to see many scanarios in which Turkey undermines the BBF until partition seems like the most logical "next step". Having the past as a guide the cynical approach is not one that can be discounted. The invasion of 1974 was based on the treaty of establishment which Turkey says is not valid anymore. The operation was meant to restore the 1960 constitution which Turkey refuses to recognise, but invokes when it comes to having troops permanently on Cyprus and the list goes on.