Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

We have been through the debates of what solution is fair and feasible in the circumstances. By common agreement it is a Bicommunal Biregional Federation. So what would it be like to live in this BBF as Cypriots with the problems solved?

As a Cypriot I look into my crystal ball and see among other t hings the following:

Turkey is there, perhaps with 650 soldiers, but definitely with a whole bunch of "advisers" etc. The Turkish embassy in north Nicosia is definitely a power hub and many appointments in the regional government are decided there and not the ministerial offices or the regional parliament.

The system of cronyism we have known from the old days is still active, but now it is in triplicate- it works in the two regional civil services as well as the central government. At least for appointments in the central government it enforces some bicommunal cooperation among applicants for jobs, who now must seek favor with official of the "other" side.

Money, like water, finds its own level. Rich people from both communities cooperate to get richer. They probably enjoy more intercommunal contact than anyone else on the island. The property boom favors these contacts, naturally.

And there is another factor, the EU, with its various programmes and opportunities for clever and agile dudes who form NGOs to harness funds aimed at various meaningless projects, from improving intercommunal contacts to saving the turtles of Akamas and Karpasia. At least these guys do not have to kiss ass in triplicate, only once, Euro style.

These are some of the facets of the day after BBF, I am sure all of you have some visions of the post solution situation.

[Magnus]

How does everyone see this affecting the daily life of the average citizen?

Can we expect riots when people try to go back to their old homes and villages? There might be some sort of reparations paid out but for some people the money is meaningless, they just want to go back to the places they still consider home, even after 35 years away.

What about all that land that belongs to the Orthodox Church and the damage done to the churches? What happens with all that? And of course there's the issue of all the property that's been sold off illegally.

Who's going to deal with all these problems?

[Piratis]

It depends on the "BBF"

For example: Will the land distribution be fair (82%-18%) so that most people can actually return to their homes and those that don't will be able to be fully compensated?

Will that Turkish embassy be able to control only the occupied part of Cyprus, or will the power sharing be such that they will be able to control the whole of Cyprus?

The make or brake points for the BBF is land distribution and the power sharing in the central government. If both are proportional to the population then BBF can work. If they are disproportionally large in favor of the TCs and on the expense of GCs, then I see another bloodshed coming soon after.

[Magnus]

It depends on the "BBF"

For example: Will the land distribution be fair (82%-18%) so that most people can actually return to their homes and those that don't will be able to be fully compensated?

Will that Turkish embassy be able to control only the occupied part of Cyprus, or will the power sharing be such that they will be able to control the whole of Cyprus?

The make or brake points for the BBF is land distribution and the power sharing in the central government. If both are proportional to the population then BBF can work. If they are disproportionally large in favor of the TCs and on the expense of GCs, then I see another bloodshed coming soon after.

I think this is a major obstacle to the plan. The Turkish settlers wont accept the fair split because they know they could lose out if the GCs want to go back to their villages. Plus, it makes no sense to have a 'Turkish Constituent State' comprising a majority of Greek Cypriots with a Turkish local government ruling over them.

[Nikitas]

Settlers will accept monetary compensation to go back to their places of origin. Most people know this and want this to happen. Not only becaue it facilitates the settlement but also because no one wants to share the spoils with settlers. The spoils in this case being permanent employment in the civil service (s).

I dont think that violence will be the problem in the the post BBF society. The likeliest problem will be a top heavy civil service which will overburden creative people and force them to leave the island. Now we are members of the EU leaving and finding jobs eslewhere is easier than ever before.

In case you doubt the burden of the bureaucracy just imagine being a south Cyprus GC wanting to open a small business in the north or vice versa. All the local, state and federal permits you will need and the complex taxation system you will face in addition to the EU regulations that come through every so often. Who needs this kind of hasle!

Also we forget that society is dynamic and not static and as people adapt to the new BBF system there will be all kinds of new and unforeseen interactions between interest groups. One that will occur for sure is an alliance between "greens" of both sides who will form alliances to milk the EU environmental funds dry. There will be many others for sure.

[CopperLine]

Nikitas paints, in my view, a pretty accurate picture of a future BBF. The new forms of rule will be Eurocracy through a capitalist class alliance between GC and TC.

Personally I don't think there will be a problem with Turkish settlers, at least those who are ordinary labourers. Their contracts are already so tenuous and fragile that if capital needs to dismiss them, in favour of some other poor sods, then they'll be packed off back to Turkey. Turkish settlers who have property and money will - in keeping with Nikitas' prognosis - ally with GC and other international capital. Capital has no patria.

[Nikitas]

Capital has no patria indeed and especially EU capital which is unidentifiable and anonymous by decree!

I am worried about the indigenous landless population who sold their land inorder to become landless office workers wrestling with their credit card load. They have a bleak future no matter whether they are TC or GC.

And we all know our wealthy are not imbued with the impulse to share! This too also goes for TCs and GCs.

[Nikitas]

The irony in this BBF thing is that perhaps the only people who will be left with a tangible plus at the end of it are the settlers. They will get compensation and go back to their native villages. The money will be enough for them to invest and have something tangible in their home towns.

[Magnus]

The trouble is that there are still people out there that really don't value the money as much as they value 'going home'. I'm not talking about the happy capitalists joining hands in the pursuit of more money, I'm talking about the 'lumpen proletariat' who just want their old house in their old village with their old church.

What happens when these people try to return to their villages but find settlers in their houses, damage to their properties or a million other things to be outraged about? There is going to be conflict, and all it takes is a few extreme incidents and the whole thing falls apart.

[turkkan]

The irony in this BBF thing is that perhaps the only people who will be left with a tangible plus at the end of it are the settlers. They will get compensation and go back to their native villages. The money will be enough for them to invest and have something tangible in their home towns.

Im not sure what you are basing the above on. Which settlers are you talking about? The ones who came from 74 till 1990? or the ones after? The ones after 1990 might accept monetary compensation to go back, the vast majority of the ones who came before that will certainly not. They sold everything they had in turkey, if they had anything and came here and started raising families, their children know no other home but cyprus and it will probably be hard for them to find any employment back in turkey after living here so long, especially if they are close to the retirement age. Certainly most TC's will not support their repatritation back to turkey if they have been here so long. Another portion of them is married in with the TC population. These people will not be going anywhere.