Cyprus-Forum.com

[brother]

A win-win gamble for long-term gain


IT WAS A YEAR ago today that the overwhelming majority of Greek Cypriots voted against the Annan plan, rejecting the only real opportunity since the Turkish invasion to re-unify the island. The settlement outlined by the plan was seen, with active encouragement by the government, as heavily favouring Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots, who, as if to confirm this perception, returned a strong ‘yes’ vote.

It would be pointless to ask if we are better or worse off 12 months later, as this depends entirely on each person’s standpoint. Someone who was opposed to power-sharing with the Turkish Cypriots would say we are better off. Refugees from Famagusta, who would have been given back their properties had the plan been put into effect, could argue, with some justification, that they are worse off. But there are also refugees – those using Turkish Cypriot properties in Limassol and Paphos, for instance – who, justifiably, feel that they are better off without a solution.

Meanwhile, the question of whether the rejection of the plan was correct also depends on a person’s standpoint. For someone who believes that without a settlement there will never be stability on the island, it was a mistake because there may not be another opportunity for an agreement. For those who maintain that there will be other opportunities, involving better plans, once we had joined the EU it was a correct decision. Many ‘no’ voters did not even want other opportunities coming along – they were content with division as the settlement. It is difficult to say what percentage held this view, but it would be very useful to know.

The people may have had their say 12 months ago, but the fact is that the politicians are calling the shots now as they had done before the referendum. On the diplomatic front, especially our relations with the international community, the government has not had an easy ride since April 24 but it has weathered the storm, even though it has alienated the international community with its stand. It also lost the moral high ground which the Greek Cypriot side had held for more than 30 years, thanks to Ankara’s and Rauf Denktash’s intransigence. The government’s flat refusal in the last 12 months to take any practical step indicating it was still committed to a settlement, has lost it the support it had previously taken for granted and raised questions about its sincerity.
Instead, the government has engaged in a damage limitation campaign within the EU which, understandably, was not happy with the rejection of the plan. EU membership, which many opponents of the Annan plan had argued would strengthen our position and force the Turkish side into more concessions had not exactly worked out as we had hoped. On the contrary, the Cyprus government has been making the concessions within the EU and has been given nothing in return. It praised Turkey’s positive stance in the peace talks (with all other member states), lifted its ban on foreign visitors staying in the north overnight, allowed all foreigners who arrived in the north (through illegal ports of entry) to cross south, permits the sale of Turkish Cypriot products in the south and has had to accept Turkish Cypriot participation at the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly. Two years ago, these concessions would have been inconceivable.

The only issue on which the government has been successful is in preventing direct trade between the Union and the north. This though, is a defensive tactic – an act of containment, involving threats of legal action against the Commission – rather than something which brings tangible benefits to the Greek Cypriots. When our supposedly stronger position was put to the test last December it was found wanting – the president did not use his veto right even though the conditions he had set for approving the start of EU accession talks with Turkey were not satisfied.
It was no wonder that the government was celebrating on Thursday about the document for the EU-Turkey Association Council, which made reference to the implementation of the protocol and the need for the normalisation of relations between Turkey and the Republic. In one year since joining the EU, the government has had little reason to celebrate, despite claiming that membership would strengthen our hand in our dealings with Turkey.

These battles within the EU have become the main focus of the government’s foreign policy since the referendum. First, it elevated the signing of the Turkey-EU protocol on customs union to an issue of critical importance; with that out of the way it now hopes to force Turkey into normalising relations with the Republic. The immediate objective is no longer a settlement, but the maintenance of the status quo in Cyprus, while building pressure on Turkey within the EU in the hope that at some point in the future we will be able to dictate our settlement terms to the Turkish side.

This is why President Papadopoulos has been obdurately refusing to tell the UN what changes he wants made to the Annan plan, the main pre-condition set by the UN Secretary-general for undertaking a new initiative. Like many ‘no’ voters, he hopes that with time, he will be able to secure a better deal by using the EU to apply pressure on Turkey as it negotiates its accession.

This gamble might not come off and the partition of the island will, eventually, be formalised. But there may not be many Greek Cypriots complaining, as most have not only come to terms with permanent division, they are quite comfortable with it, as they showed 12 months ago. For the majority of Greek Cypriots, partition seems to be preferable to sharing power with the Turkish Cypriots, which is why they voted against the plan a year ago and why they fully support their president’s unwillingness to engage in a new round of talks now.

This is a perfectly legitimate political choice, and the sooner our politicians own up to their support for it, as well, the better it would be for all concerned.