By Jean Christou
THE CURRENT government crisis in Turkey does not bode well for a speedy solution to the Cyprus problem, according to political analysts in Istanbul.
The Cyprus government said on Friday that difficulties were being experienced at the working groups and technical committees.
[size=18]It is believed this is due to the Turkish Cypriot side’s adherence to the discouraging vibe coming from Ankara since the process began after the election of President Demetris Christofias.[/size]
During a journalists’ conference in Istanbul last weekend, organised by the US embassy in Nicosia, Turkish professor Soli Ozel from Bilgi University said what was going on in Turkey was disconcerting.
“I can’t see an easy way out of the mess we are in,” said Ozel, referring to attempts to ban the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, which observers believe will give a stronger hand to the military.
“I take it as a foregone conclusion the party will be closed,” said Ozel.
He said he wondered if the case was more to do with banning the AKP from politics or banning Erdogan, whom he described as the single most popular politician of his generation.
Ozel said if the AKP was closed, it would disenfranchise 85 per cent of electorate in south-eastern Turkey, the consequences of which would be excluding the Kurds from parliament.
“I’m not sure this has been thought through. It is political suicide on the part of the established order,” said Ozel. “All of this does not bode well for the government’s stance on Cyprus. No one is going to stick their neck out for a process they got badly burned with four years ago,” he added referring to Turkey’s push in 2004 to see the Annan plan implemented in Cyprus.
Veteran journalist Sami Kohen from Milliyet newspaper said that although Cyprus was going through a period of hope and optimism, if the Turkish government fell, “everything would come to a standstill” and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat would have to continue on his own. “This would be damaging to the process,” said Kohen.
“If there is a breakdown, we may not have any serious effort for a solution in the future,” he added.
“You have two guys are the helm who are saying at least that they want to solve the problem, but the positions in Cyprus are still very much apart from each other and it will require a lot good will and effort to narrow it. It’s not enough to have two good leaders. This is the bottom line.”
Kohen also said the incentive for a solution was weaker on the Turkish side than it had been in 2004, while the incentive had become stronger on the Greek side.
“In the last three or four years, the no solution has not brought anything. We have lost a lot of ground so this is a very important turning point,” said Kohen. “This is a motivation for the Greek side to take the talks more seriously, but there are circles in Turkey who think the TRNC could survive and that no solution would be good, although this is not the official policy.”
Stephen Larrabee an analyst from the US RAND think tank said the crisis in Turkey was at a minimum likely to distract the AKP and leave little time for the Cyprus question.
“Opportunities to make progress on the Cyprus issue could be lost. EU negotiations could be suspended and power could shift to the military, which traditionally supports a much tougher line on Cyprus,” he said.
Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008[/quote]
I long to see the day when this nation collapses in on itself!
