Get Real! wrote:The Military Option: Turkey Vs Cyprus
Any illusions of a complex inter-communal political arrangement being implemented in Cyprus is now history, Turkey’s EU make-believe journey is over, and it is now a race to get the upper hand in technology, political influence, and in the overall balance of power because unfortunately it’s become apparent that Cyprus can only be liberated in the same way it was enslaved… through bloodshed!
The RoC is very much aware of Turkey's size, manpower, and military expenditure, etc, so when push goes to shove it will be Turkey that will have the most surprises as she is the one that underestimates the Republic of Cyprus and not the other way round.
Unfortunately, Cyprus will have to sacrifice some of her young generations so that future generations of Cypriots will live free on their liberated island from the Turkic curse that began in 1571.
In the event of a war there is little doubt that the geopolitical repercussions will be severe for Turkey win or lose. Realistically, most wars don't last longer than a month and it is with strategic maneuvers with respect to time that cause the other side to panic, make errors, and then offer concessions on the negotiating table. The Republic of Cyprus can muster around 100,000 men, have stockpiles of modern firepower and equipment…
http://www.army.gov.cy/index.php?id=227
…including the ability to strike deep into southern Turkey with ballistic missiles so all southern Turkish naval ports that can be used to provide further reinforcements can be leveled. The Turkish air force can be countered by the newly acquired French Mistral S2A technology (this is actually the world’s finest S2A)…
http://www.army-technology.com/projects/mistral/
…and last but not least the GS’s have every reason to fight to the end as they have nowhere else to go anyway and they certainly have the advantage of numbers on the island.
On the other hand, Turkey’s fragile political nature coupled with the shock of fierce resistance and that of the fight spilling onto Turkish soil with civilian casualties could make the Turkish regime capitulate from embarrassment and scurry to the negotiating table as they will most likely be expecting a re-run of July 1974!
A breakdown of current sizes of forces on the island reveals…
“Greeks”
---------------------------------------------
National Guard 10,000
Greek Cypriot Reservists 88,000
Greek ELDIK ?
---------------------------------------------
98,000
“Turks”
---------------------------------------------
Turkish Cypriot Soldiers 4,000
Turkish Cypriot Reservists 26,000
Turkish Military 39,000
---------------------------------------------
69,000
NB: Greeks have not been included here as it is unlikely that they will ever come to Cyprus’ aid if history is anything to go by, something that was further reinforced by Greece’s total failure to look after one of her Aegean rocks from Turkish attack (Imia) not too long ago…
http://pedia.counsellingresource.com/openpedia/Imia
Another option for the RoC would be the hiring of professional armies to assist in conjunction with the National Guard in the removal of the enemy from Cypriot soil such as Blackwater…
http://www.blackwaterusa.com/
Blackwater’s mission reads:
“To support national and international security policies that protect those who are defenseless and provide a free voice for all with a dedication to providing ethical, efficient, and effective turnkey solutions that positively impact the lives of those still caught in desperate times.”
With the demise of the Annan plan, and the official Turkish and Turkish Cypriot policy of “Taksim” being very loud and clear, it appears that all political options for the solution of the Cyprus problem have been exhausted.
Evidently, the RoC does not really have any other option anymore and that is why for the last couple of years she has clearly shifted from a defensive military stance to an offensive one with the acquisition of short and mid-range missiles, sophisticated radar systems, attack helicopters, and other modern hardware to compliment her new military alliance with France.
The military option has always been on the table for the RoC but only now it is being taken very seriously so is Turkey truly invincible against Cyprus? but more importantly… what happens to the 120,000 odd Turkish Cypriots sandwiched in the middle?
Will they be swallowed up by Turkey into fully fledged Turkish Nationals and withdrawn to Turkey? Will most perish in a final Christian crusade to rid of Turkey once and for all from Cyprus? Or will they opt for a European integration in the nick of time and forget any “statehood” aspirations on forbidden Christian soil?
Regards, GR.
Turkish army the least reformed in NATO'
Saturday, May 10, 2008
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ISTANBUL - Turkish Daily News
Despite Turkey having the largest army within the NATO alliance, it is also the least reformed and the least deployable one, said former U.S. Assistant Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns in Washington, Voice of America reported Friday.
Delivering the Fourth Sakıp Sabancı Lecture in the Center for the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) Thursday, Burns said Turkey should increase its investments in its air and ground forces, emphasizing that countries should allocate more resources to their army from their gross national product. �In this respect Turkey is more advanced than most European countries,� he said.
Stressing that Turkey should be more actively involved in the NATO mission in Afghanistan, Burns also asked the country to use its influence more directly against Syria and Iran, supporting sanctions.
�The United States want to see a Turkey led by a modern, secular and civil government,� he said. Explaining that Turkey had a lot of opportunities to provide stability in the region, Burns advised the government to start dialogue with Armenia and reopen the Greek Orthodox Halki Seminary on Heybeliada. �Whoever is elected as the new U.S. president, his priority must be strategic partnership with Turkey,� he said. Moreover the new president should also send a message to Germany and France, who are trying to stall the EU accession process, and say rejecting Turkey would be a huge mistake, according to Burns.
