Talikser, the article below should give you a brief overview of what is going on in TC politics. Note that the author is a TC:
Alkan CHAGLAR
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6 Mayıs 2008, Salı Yorum Yaz Yazdır Arkadaşına Gönder
The economy dictates pretty much everything in this world. Even prospects for grasping a solution to the long-standing Cyprus problem and the position of the Turkish Cypriot leadership are all dependent upon the economy.
Criticism is often leveled at the Turkish Cypriot leadership, fairly or unfairly according to the democratic tradition, but when scrutinising the administration of the internationally unrecognized and self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) outsiders behind the dividing Nicosia wall often overlook the financial puppet strings controlling the movements of the north’s political system.
ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY
To comprehend northern Cyprus and its politics one has to recognize that Turkey is not just an occupier in northern Cyprus; it funds much of the infrastructure there and pays for hospitals and schooling. Ankara pays the salaries of all civil servants including the President of the TRNC, albeit not directly, these payments are indirectly made through her annual budget to the North Nicosia administration.
To illustrate Turkey’s economic importance one should note that a staggering one third of the entire north Cyprus workforce is employed in the civil service and relies on Turkey to eat. Financial Aid from Turkey is crucial to the Turkish Cypriot economy too. Under the latest economic protocol signed between Turkey and north Cyprus in 2005, Turkey undertakes to provide north Cyprus loans and financial assistance totalling US$450 million over a three-year period for public finance, tourism, banking, and privatization projects. Turkey also provides assistance annually in the form of low-interest loans to mostly Turkish entrepreneurs in support of export-oriented industrial production and tourism. This year Ankara provides 790.2 million YTL or US$637 million in aid to the north of Cyprus. Nearly 464.75 million YTL or US$374 million of such financial aid will be donated for infrastructure investments and defense allocations, according to officials. Total Turkish assistance to North Cyprus since 1974 is estimated to exceed US$3 billion.
GREATEST LEVERAGE
Undoubtedly, these annual budgets of financial aid are a life line as they provide jobs and an income to so many. But they are equally the greatest leverage Ankara has over the north’s civilian government. Far from popular misconception, Turkey does not expend its own tax money out of kindness on ‘ungrateful Turkish Cypriots’ but on hundreds of thousands of settler Turks not to mention an army of 50,000 troops. From Ankara’s political perspective too, leverage is needed to control the north’s government lest it contradicts Turkey’s policies on Cyprus, a move that could leave Ankara looking like the “bad guy” internationally. So Turkey lays down its demands before signing away its cheques.
Despite the fact that I despise the term, Turkey can best be described as a ‘mother’ and the north as its ‘child.’ The term is logical since the TRNC is the product of Turkey and not the Turkish Cypriots. Like a mother she gives her child pocket money but if her child misbehaves then she threatens to take it away.
TURKEY’S INTERVENTIONS CONTINUE
But if Turkish Cypriots regard the TRNC as their ‘state,’ then the relationship of dependency they have with their ‘mother’ at the age of 33 is hardly a healthy one. In a rambling kvetch against ‘the system,’ one Turkish Cypriot politician frankly informed me that the budget of the north normally ends in 8 months, after which the leader or President will normally fly to Ankara to petition the Turkish government to bail him out for the next 4 months. Ankara can either accept or refuse to help the economically depressed north of Cyprus, but if it accepts it will lay down conditions. It is these conditions which we do not hear about that shape policy and the speed at which the Turkish Cypriot leadership moves towards a Cyprus solution. In short, it is these financial conditions that govern how the Turkish Cypriot leadership governs.
The gentleman who wished to remain anonymous claimed that “Turkey intervened in 1974, but politically it keeps intervening.” In his words, Turkey decides on which candidates will stand in elections, what percentage will be Turkish Cypriot and settler Turks, who will form a government or coalition, what meetings the President of the TRNC will attend and what he will say publicly and when. Like a rehearsal for a play, the script is very much written in Ankara by its Director and not by its performers in north Nicosia.
DIRECT TRADE
With a sense of purpose and a need to bring change, some members of the TRNC administration blame ‘embargoes’ or isolation for the dependence of the north on Turkey. They argue that ever since the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled on July 5, 1994 against the British practice of importing produce from the area based on certificates of origin and phyto-sanitary certificates granted by TRNC authorities that the reliance on Turkey has increased. The fact that after the ECJ decision there followed a considerable decrease of Turkish-Cypriot exports to the EU - from US$36.4 million (or 66.7% of total Turkish-Cypriot exports) in 1993 to US$13.8 million in 2003 (or 28% of total exports) is often cited.
In an argument that sees Direct Trade as the panacea to increased independence from Turkey, some members of the current TRNC administration are campaigning vigorously for Direct Trade in order to decrease their dependency on Turkey. But I am not convinced Turkey who has such a powerful leverage over Turkish Cypriots would want to change the status quo. After all, what does Direct Trade between the TRNC and the EU, which eradicates economic triangulation offer Turkey?
The same questions can be asked to explain the current very limited Green Line Trade. Efforts to establish Direct Trade via the Republic were curbed by the same Turkish Cypriot administration that cries for Direct Trade despite the fact that goods from north Cyprus could be sold abroad via the port of Limassol. The Green Line Regulations, which aim to integrate and reunify the two economies of the north and the Republic, clearly poses a threat to the current status quo of dependence on Ankara.
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF REUNIFICATION
The north today faces serious economic problems. Perhaps Ankara is squeezing the current administration…. But as if timely, this week Michael Møller, the outgoing Secretary-General’s Special Representative (UN) welcomed a new piece of research highlighting the economic benefits of reunification. The research is said to project commercial opportunities across the island if there was a solution. Welcoming the research as a “reference in all future consideration of the implications of a solution,” Møller said: “It helps answer a question at the front of every Cypriot’s mind, Greek and Turkish, one we should be doing more to address: ‘what will a solution mean to me and my family?
A SOLUTION IS KEY
When working towards a solution for Cyprus, one has to be aware of the financial aid factor in the north’s politics. Turkey’s strong grip over Turkish Cypriot politics is so strong that no amount of democratic elections can ever change Ankara’s role. The Turkish Cypriot leadership can undoubtedly minimize the effects of this, but they are otherwise powerless to stop Turkey using its biggest leverage. The UN and the Greek Cypriot leadership should be aware of these constraints when approaching the Turkish Cypriot leadership. Turkish Cypriots for their part should reject any kind of economic dependency that makes a mockery of their political equality and elected leader, they should look for stable foundations for their future which can only come from a sustainable peace solution with the Greek Cypriot community. But more importantly, those who promote reunification should be realistic and use the economic card. They need to promote the economic benefits of reunification; this is where the UN research and others can come in handy. Both Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders should work with Møller to promote reunification through its economic benefits to the Cypriot people as a whole and to increase Green Line Trade. Turkey too needs to be included in the economic benefits of reunification if it is to agree to a solution.
