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by **cannedmoose** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:37 pm

With 2 weeks to go, I thought it might be useful for anyone interested in the result of the UK election to post a poll of polls (Communicate, ICM, MORI, NOP, Populus and YouGov) whenever one is updated. Then we can keep track of where the parties stand day by day.

21st April, 2005

Labour 38.5%
Conservative 32.8%
Lib Dems 21.3%
Others 7.4%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 391 (-12)
Conservative 176 (+11)
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 24 (-3)

Next update tomorrow.

by **brother** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:41 pm

MOOSEY WHY ARE YOU VOTING LIB DEM?

by **cannedmoose** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:56 pm

brother wrote:MOOSEY WHY ARE YOU VOTING LIB DEM?

It's not a case of wanting to, it's a case of the best of a poor bunch:

1. I Can't bring myself to vote for Tony again, didn't support the war, don't feel he's lived up to half the promise he showed in 1997. He's unwilling to do anything to reform the crippling council tax.
2. Can't stomach voting for the Tories because:
a) They are anti-European;
b) Michael Howard is an unpalletable slime-bag, was a dreadful, supercilious home secretary and would make an awful Prime Minister (personal opinion);
c) They were pro-hunting.
3. Voting Lib-Dem because:
a) They were against the war in Iraq;
b) A local income tax is a pragmatic and fairer system, which I've seen work quite well in some Canadian provinces;
c) They were anti-hunting
d) I agree with the 50% tax threshold for >£100,000
e) I find Charles Kennedy a refreshing change from politicians who squirm around the questions and never offer a straight answer
f) I'm fed up with the two party squabble, it's about time we had a third-party able to mix it up a bit
g) I'm pro-proportional representation

I disagree with Lib Dem policy on tuition fees (i.e. abolishing them), but I have to pick one. They have no hope in my constituency anyway, but I don't see why that's not a reason to cast my vote in their support. Might make my local MP work harder if his majority is slashed in half.

by **Webbie** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:02 pm

I was all for the war in Iraq.

Stick with the Yanks - that's what I say!

by **cannedmoose** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:22 pm

Webbie wrote:I was all for the war in Iraq.

Stick with the Yanks - that's what I say!

Quel surprise...

by **cannedmoose** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:16 pm

22nd April, 2005

Labour 38.7%
Conservative 33%
Lib Dems 21.2%
Others 7.1%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 393 (-10)
Conservative 176 (+11)
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 22 (-5)

Labour overall majority of 140

Next update tomorrow.

by **cannedmoose** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 12:17 pm

Following no change yesterday, here are the latest updated poll figures:

24th April, 2005

Labour 38.5%
Conservative 33%
Lib Dems 21%
Others 7.5%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 391 (-12)
Conservative 176 (+11)
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 24 (-3)

Labour overall majority of 136.

Next update tomorrow.

Just a comment on things so far. The patterns pretty much show that the election campaign isn't changing hearts and minds in any direction. It's been a bit lacklustre, with no real big hits for either side. There's a debate between the candidates this coming Thursday at 2030 BST on BBC (you should be able to watch it via their website), so if any scores are made then, you might see an effect. Otherwise, it's very much static right now.