by cannedmoose » Fri May 06, 2005 2:51 pm
With a predicted final majority of just 66 votes, it would take 33 rebels within his own party to make Blair's life difficult, i.e. in pushing legislation through Parliament. Blair has always had thumping majorities with which to pursue his plans, he now has to accommodate both wings of his party, which has been heavily divided on certain issues in the last couple of years. He now has to mediate between these in order to get the legislation he wants passed through the House of Commons.
The commentators here are saying that it's likely that Blair will begin the transition to new leadership of the Labour Party within the next 18 months to 2 years, most likely to the Chancellor Gordon Brown. In the British system, the Prime Minister is simply one member of the party in government. It is therefore in the power of that party to change their leader at any time and thus replace the sitting Prime Minister. This would not require a new election. It happened when the Conservatives replaced Margaret Thatcher as party leader in 1990 and John Major took over as both party leader and Prime Minister.
We've already seen the Tory leader Michael Howard announce that he is going to stand down as Conservative leader in the near future. I think within the next year or so, we'll see Blair repositioning himself to do likewise.