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[cannedmoose]

25th April, 2005

Labour 38.9%
Conservative 32.8%
Lib Dems 20.8%
Others 7.5%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 394 (-9)
Conservative 174 (+9)
Lib Dems 54 (+3)
Others 24 (-3)

Labour overall majority of 142.

Next update tomorrow.

[brother]

This morning on the way to work i listened on radio how a senior labour mp has quit to join the lib dems and that there is many more who want to quit labour, is this the end of labour and a chance for the conservatives to get in with lib dems maybe increase their support to a 100 seats.

[cannedmoose]

This morning on the way to work i listened on radio how a senior labour mp has quit to join the lib dems and that there is many more who want to quit labour, is this the end of labour and a chance for the conservatives to get in with lib dems maybe increase their support to a 100 seats.

Sadly Bro' I don't think so (not sadly meaning the Tories). The Labour MP is a renowned maverick who has been staunchly against the Blairite reformation of the party. He's very much from the Michael Foot era of Labour party politics (i.e. hard left). He's also retiring at this election, so it's not as big a coup as it would have been for a standing Labour MP to have defected.

I think the result will be determined more by the absence of voters than by active switching of parties. If the vote drops below the 55% mark, then Labour will be in trouble and could be looking at a majority below 50 (in which case Blair is in serious bother because he has a solid core of dissidents in the party that number about this level).

As for a Liberal Democrat breakthrough, I'd love to see it, so that we could have a genuine three-way tussle, but I don't see it happening. It threatens to happen almost every election, but never transpires. Sadly, the way constituency boundaries are drawn works in Labour's favour and is heavily against a Lib Dem renaissance. I personally predict that the Lib Dems will end up with just over 60 seats, so a good improvement on the 51 they won last time, but not yet enough to tip the balance. The real test will come potentially in the next election (2010?) when Blair is gone and the Tories might actually be in a position to challenge Labour. If we get a hung parliament then, the Lib Dems will be big enough to tip the balance, as a result we could have a coalition government where the Lib Dems have the opportunity to hold one of the larger parties by the short and curlies and get some of their policies enacted as a consequence. Long way off yet though.

[cannedmoose]

On to today's polling figures:

26th April, 2005

Labour 39.3%
Conservative 32.5%
Lib Dems 20.8%
Others 7.4%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 395 (-8 )
Conservative 173 (+8 )
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 23 (-4)

Labour overall majority of 144.

Next update tomorrow.

[cannedmoose]

27th April, 2005

8 days to go...

Labour 38.8%
Conservative 32.8%
Lib Dems 21%
Others 7.4%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 395 (-8 )
Conservative 173 (+8 )
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 23 (-4)

Labour overall majority of 144.

Next update tomorrow.

[cannedmoose]

28th April, 2005

One week to go... excited yet folks?

Labour 38.8%
Conservative 32.7%
Lib Dems 21.2%
Others 7.3%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 395 (-8 )
Conservative 173 (+8 )
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 23 (-4)

Labour overall majority of 144. So no change (again!). The only thing that's changed during this election campaign is in the race to win 'most orange-looking tan', with Tony Blair fighting Robert Kilroy-Silk of 'Veritas' to the line... judge for yourself who's winning...



Next update tomorrow.

[garbitsch]

I just want to open the window and cry "VOTE FOR LIB DEMS YOU IDIOTS".

[erolz]

Labour overall majority of 144.

Predicting the future is a mugs game - so I guess I am well qualifed and here goes.

There is no way that Labour will retain 140+ seat majority in this next election. My prediction is between 85-105 seat majority. (I'll take spread bets on this if you like at upto £5 per seat )

[cannedmoose]

There is no way that Labour will retain 140+ seat majority in this next election. My prediction is between 85-105 seat majority. (I'll take spread bets on this if you like at upto £5 per seat )

I agree, but Labour's majority will be about 70-80. As I've said, depends on turnout more than anything else.

[cannedmoose]

29th April, 2005

Six days to go... the anticipation is killing me...

Labour 38.7%
Conservative 32.5%
Lib Dems 21.2%
Others 7.6%

Assuming these were reflected in the actual vote on May 5th, and assuming that no tactical voting takes place (unlikely, but never mind), the parties would end up with the following number of seats (with change since 2001 election):

Labour 394 (-9 )
Conservative 173 (+8 )
Lib Dems 55 (+4)
Others 24 (-3)

Labour overall majority of 142.

A little experiment to liven up these non-moving polls a little. The margin of error in all of these polls is +/- 3%. I find it very hard to believe that Labour really has a 6+ point lead over the Tories, or that the Lib Dems are stuck on 21%. Therefore, the scenario is this:

I think the Labour polls are adding approximately 3% to their share of the vote. I think the Tories are being shown about 1% below the share they should expect, as are the Lib Dems.

Hence, if we use the following figures:

Labour 35.7%
Conservative 33.5%
Liberal Democrat 22.2%
Others 8.6% (factoring in the potential for increase in SNP and Plaid Cymru votes and also protest voting to smaller parties like UKIP, Greens, Veritas, BNP etc.)

This would produce the following result:

Labour 368 (-35)
Conservative 193 (+28)
Lib Dems 58 (+7)
Others 27 (+/-0)

Labour majority of 90.

I somehow think this is a far more likely outcome than the polls are predicting. It's difficult to work out what's going to really happen as I expect the turnout to be even lower than in 2001 and tactical vote switching could be a key element in many marginal seats.

Next update tomorrow...