Long-lasting Cyprus issue has turned into a form that has been changing dimension in the course of time due to the involvement of different actors in different time periods and that even propositions on a comprehensive settlement seems to remain inadequate to overcome the long-term resistance of the parties. The long- lasting characteristic of the issue causes it to be more complicated and international actors to intervene the problem. Due to these features, the problem requires a multi- component formula whose all components need to be conducted simultaneously.
The Cyprus issue experienced serious breaking points, which caused the change in the way the issue is going, in the course of time. The process of Greek Cyprus’ membership during 1990s up to 2004 following the Greek one in 1980s and referendum on the Annan Plan in 2004 are among these crucial terms, leaving particular marks on the issue. Results of these breaking points have mostly been against Turkish side and made this issue a key factor for Turkey-EU relations as well as one of the basic problems of Turkish foreign policy for more than 50 years The most important obstacle in front of a possible settlement based on “reciprocity principle” under the auspices of United Nations has become the “Europeanization” of the problem i.e. the EU membership of Greece and Greek Cyprus. These memberships caused the solution process to be stuck into a deadlock. On the other hand, the results of the Annan Plan referendum also became another breaking point in terms of changing the images of the parties in international arena about which one is in favor of deadlock or a solution. After the referendum it is possible to say that the ‘psychological superiority’ in international platform for the first time was turned in favor of Turkish side. Although Turkish side has no longer been accepted as primarily responsible from the deadlock regarding the solution and has captured the ‘physiological superiority’, it is not possible to say that this international sympathy helped the Northern Cyprus to be recognized as an independent unit, and the isolations on the island still have not been lifted. In contrast, since realization of the accession to the Union without any condition for a comprehensive solution makes the Greek Cypriots be inaction, Greek Cypriots have been in no effort of taking sincere steps in favor of a settlement.
As of 2007, especially the conjuncture under the shadow of Kosovo’s independence had affected Greek Cypriots in presidential elections and national will showed a tendency in the direction of the defeat of Papadopoulos who has an important role in the rejection of the Annan Plan. The election process which has resulted in victory of Christofias has revitalized the hopes for revitalization of negotiations and gave the signals of the beginning of a new period. The two leaders of the island came together on March 21, which is a concrete sign of beginning of a new period. Opening of Lokmaci Gate, formation of technical committee and working groups to complete technical preparations are the first steps on the way to a settlement. This process, through which it is expected to start negotiations for a permanent solution, however, carries some question marks. The forthcoming process will be a “sincerity test” both for international society and for the two sides of the Island as well. This process requires TRNC and Turkey to pursue a proactive policy and to form “multi-alternative plans” that are the products of multi-dimensional thoughts, because the process usually turns into a “war of nerves” and so it requires sides to be patient and to generate alternatives. Negotiating without preparing alternative plans causes sides to act in accordance with misdirection and makes sides powerless. Proactive policies, on the other hand, are important to take the initiative to direct negotiations. As a result alternative plans are crucial in this process to shape the negotiations on the basis of UN parameters.
It is a fact that, uncompromising attitude of Greece and the accession of Greek Cypriots left the responsibility of the solution on Turkish side to a large extent. Currently, Greek Cypriots act like the Greece of 1980s against Turkey by using EU decision taking institutions as a platform to refute the claims of Turkish side. Therefore Cyprus issue forms an important obstacle in front of Turkey-EU relations. In this sense, Turkey needs to develop a healthy crisis management to be able to form a stable policy. Before all else, an effective crisis management, however, requires an identification of the problem with the support of historical facts and with an objective manner.
In this context, the aim of USAK report, entitled as “Alternative Approaches for the Cyprus Issue: Multi-Component Step Model”, is to search for alternative solutions by analyzing the history of the issue, and by preparing road maps in the short and long run to deal with it. In contrast to classical approaches, trying to show the need for a multi-component approach especially after the February 2008 elections of Greek Cypriots and to guide sides within the context of such a kind of model are among the aims of this report. In terms of both abolishing the isolations on TRNC and preventing Turkey-EU negotiations to be stuck into a deadlock, it is expected that such a kind of crisis management will make positive contributions to a possible settlement for the issue. In today’s world in which civil society and non-governmental organizations take the role of policy making, suggestions in the USAK report are expected to contribute to the solution in that new period of negotiation process. The main points of the suggestions, which are scrutinized under different titles in the report, are as follows:
• Turkish side should come to the negotiation table with the alternative proposals and openings that would test the sincerity of the Greek side regarding the solution of the Cyprus issue.
• Whether ends with a solution or not; Turkish side, without violating her basic parameters, should leave the negotiation table by showing her sincerity as like in Annan Plan Referendum.
• Turkish side should accelerate the internal transformations in the Island in terms of social, political, judicial, and economic fields, which in turn strengthen the hand of TRNC at the negotiation table.
• Turkish side, who showed her will in favor of solution with the Annan Referendum, should continue to defend a permanent compromise within the framework of UN parameters up until a certain date.
• During this process the sides, the Greek Cypriots and international community, have to take into consideration the possibility that if a solution chance will not occur as of the end of 2009, Turkey and the Turkish side of the island may take the alternative of a “solution based on two partite” into their agenda. In fact, if it will not be possible to break down the deadlock at the end of 2009, there will be an inescapable slowdown, even very serious problems will be experienced on the negotiation process between Turkey and the European Union.
• The process in front of Turkish side requires following a multi-faceted and planned diplomacy. The diplomacy that is going to be pursued by the TRNC should be the product of a multi-faceted policy that composes social, political, economic, and legal affairs simultaneously.
• This multi-faceted policy should involve the attempts and contributions of non-governmental organizations besides formal attempts, and should be proactive in nature and should be supported by research and development programs, educational components, and financial and economic steps.
• The basic “minimum” thresholds and parameters should be determined in an unequivocal and rational way, while pursuing this comprehensive and multi-faceted diplomacy.
• A comprehensive policy is of vital importance in which the internal conflicts are not to be politicized, and the process is conducted consistently.
• The regular meetings and round-table debates, which are formed with the contribution and attendance of ruling and main opposition parties as well as the non-governmental organizations, should be prepared. These meetings are of great importance in harmonizing the different views and ideas.
• The negotiation process should be conducted beyond internal political conflicts. Plans and programs need to be apart from the internal disagreements, but consensus on national interests instead. Having one-voice in international platforms to provide consistency should be one of the core principle to be followed during the process.
• While internal conflicts and disagreements requires to be solved via the indoor discussion platforms, the basis of the foreign policy should be conducted on the basis of common policy papers which are the outcomes of the mentioned discussion platforms.
• The asymmetry in terms of economy between the two sides of the island should be eliminated in favor of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). In this sense, to bring TRNC as far as possible to a position that could compete with Greek Cypriots in different fields, necessary investments regarding the infrastructure should be materialized.
• Mainly because intensified formal relations would possibly result in a rapprochement between the two sides, the idea that emphasizes “unification is beneficial for all sides” should be strengthened in the public eyes at both sides of the island.
• In order to put the economy of TRNC on a sustainable and stable track, an industrial policy should be formed by combining the ideas of private sector representatives and state authorities in a melting pot.
• For the purpose of helping TRNC to stand on its own foots, full authority and responsibility should be devolved upon the island gradually.
• Direct budget deficit compensation which is performed by Turkey is no longer a sustainable policy. Turkey’s subventions should be project-based and be directed to the sectors that lead to long term job creation and strengthening in infrastructure.
• The law system of the island is performing under the level that it should be. Some fundamental issues such as social security reform, personal property rights, banking system legislation, tax system regulation, and competition law should be re-designed in line with the realities of the age and economic rationale.
• Increasing the economic competition and achieving a sustainable development are of great importance. The necessity of a well-functioning law system is crucial within the context of these two fields, and the compensation of the qualified jurists lack should be materialized in this framework.
• The alternatives paving the way to sectoral diversification should be encouraged.
• Urban planning should be highlighted by taking the revival of the construction sector into consideration. Infrastructure and feasibility studies should be performed in line with the necessities of long term provisions.
• Not only public sector but also private one should attach importance to invest in R&D.
• The qualification of the existing universities on the island should be improved. Besides, by rethinking the positive contributions of the universities on TRNC’s consumption, new ways of attracting international students should be searched.
• The project of water whose feasibility studies have already completed should be implemented. After efficient implementation of watery agriculture projects, possible production excess will makes the prices of raw material less. Therefore, it may help to existence of an incentive factor to install processed product facilities in the north part of the island.
• It is essential to revise the infrastructure of energy constantly, and technological developments should be sustained.
• Concrete projects for installation of natural gas stations should be introduced and if it is necessary the Mediterranean coasts of Turkey should be evaluated within the context of these projects.
• Alternative projects should be implemented in order to decrease the unit costs in transportation and harbor operations.
• There should promptly form an opinion that neither Turkey nor TNRC could invest one more penny to the projects that will remain idle or uncompleted. This fact should be stiffened as “social conscious”.
• An attainable development plan should be prepared and implemented by co-operation of the private and public sectors.
• By drawing attention to social and political spill-over effects of economic recovery stemming from the development of different sectors, the perception of public on economic development should be ensured more clearly.
• The roles of economically empowered sectors on international policies should be taken into consideration.
• There are several responsibilities upon the EU due to its commitments to Northern Cyprus during the Annan Plan referendum both in political and legal terms. In this context, the EU having declared to provide any support to reach a solution should be ready to prevent any blockage of Greek Cypriots in front of the EU’s initiatives.
• In order to implement the clauses of 10. Protocol and Green Line Regulation aiming the economic development of TRNC, the EU should let the direct trade between the Union members and TRNC. Both the EU and its members must sincerely have a real political will on this subject.
• The EU should put pressure on the Greek side to implement the Green Line Regulation pursuant to the statute by warning that it would apply the infringement procedure due to the breach of the Regulation.
• Turks abroad should be organized for serious and effective lobbying activities.
• The focal point of the lobbying activities should be moved from state control to non-governmental initiative and in order to perform effective lobbying, essential initiatives should be given to TRNC simply because they are the ones knowing the needs of the islanders at first hand.
• The fact that there is no more legitimacy of the Greek claims on doctrine of neccessity should be used to disprove the Greek claims in international field since the Greek part of the island prevented the opportunity for a possible normalization process in the island due to their rejection of the Annan Plan. .
• The co-operation possibilities with the international actors should be searched. Especially, the lobbying activities should concentrate on the permanent members of the UN Security Council such as the US, Russia and China by following their Cyprus policies closely.
• In order to lift the isolations on TRNC and to increase the trade relations with the rest of the world, Turkey should accelerate lobbying activities at international platforms and at the summits of international institutions.
• Defending Turkey’s interests and arguments makes it necessary to educate international expert jurists not only in Turkey but also in TRNC. The jurists serving for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should be satisfied from the economic viewpoint, career path and long term experienced staff should be composed.
• It should be continued to advocate their rights on Turkish properties in Greek side. It should be emphasized that despite Greek authorities are handling Turkish properties under guardianship, they do not pay any charge to the Turkish owners. Also it should be stressed that a majority of performed expropriations were not for public benefit in reality but for private benefits.
• In order to apply European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) by TRNC with justifiable reasons and to use these reasons in a most effective way, jurdicial infrastructure should be developed.
• The property issue should be the part of a comprehensive solution. Also, such a solution should be settled on an approach which would reinforce bi-zonal structure of the island.
• The way to apply to the European Court of Justice should be tried against the Greek obstacles on the implementation of the Green Line Regulation. Before an application to judicial ways, means of evidence should be determined clearly. Also the applications should be based on a comprehensive study thereby which claims are framed up a complete “causal links” in order not to give rise in judicial gaps.
• If aimed at structuring a TRNC standing on her own foots at international area, the Turkish side should avoid the indefinite interventions to the politics of TRNC which would damage “de facto sovereignty”.
• The relations between TRNC’s and Turkey’s armies should be continued within the framework of two strategic partners or two separate national armies.
• Turkey’s guarantorship should be a basic criterion and falling under this criterion should be rejected in any case including a solution based on federation. However, this basic criterion does not cause any objection to devolve the sovereignty in the north side of the island. In order to legitimate the presence of Turkish military in the eyes of international community, less but technologically supported troops could be formed.
• Via the “Security and Defense Agreement” signing between Turkey and TRNC, important openings could be performed.
• It requires for TRNC to act as en bloc in order to defend her claims better in international platforms. In this context, to eliminate the problems stemming from TRNC’s heterogenic structure, a comprehensive and systematic education program should be implemented.
• Another component which would contribute the socio-economic transformation of TRNC and at the same time would help the integration of Northern part to the EU in case of a solution is to take adequate steps in the direction of EU Acquis. For the purpose of contribution to perform socio-economic transformation in a planned frame, as long as overlapping with the basic parameters, the requirements of EU Acquis should be implemented.
• In order to encourage Greek Cyprus and also other members to take serious steps which would make contribution in favor of a settlement, the EU should give clear and positive signals to Turkey throughout the negotiation process. It would also help to eliminate any EU actor to politicize the issue over the Greek side.
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Center for EU Studies