Cyprus-Forum.com

[Tatiana]

Have you ever thought that NO of Greek Cypriots to the plan to unify the island may later result in something negative?
Now before Cyprus has joined the EU these attempts to unify the island are active, Annan is here, negotiations are in force, Turkish Cypriot are shouting there, Greek Cypriots are shouting here... obviously, Turkish Cypriots want to join the EU now and they will vote for it for sure... Greek Cypriots under present circumstances will vote against... Do you think it is impossible that Northern part of Cyprus will be recognized by some countries that wanted the settlement of the conflict but saw NO of Greek Cypriots to any attempts? And then if Northern part is officially recognized, it can get investments and develop further and maybe become a competitor of the Southern part of Cyprus in the future... I do not exclude it that European countries and US will become kinda upset because of Greek Cypriots reaction to any attempts to settle the issue...

just thoughts...

[metecyp]

Have you ever thought that NO of Greek Cypriots to the plan to unify the island may later result in something negative?

Well, it'll definetely result in something negative, i.e. our island won't be united. But apart from that, I think the biggest change will be the dynamics of the Cyprus problem will change significantly. Turkish side, esp. TCs, will be accepting a plan that is accepted by US, UN, and EU while GCs will reject something that the whole world accepts. So after that, I don't know how GCs can expect support from their European friends, and I don't know how EU can still continue its embargos in the north.

[Piratis]

The question is: "worst than what?"

In a recent poll more Greek Cypriots said that they would prefer partition rather than the Annan plan. Therefore nothing can be worst than the Annan plan, even partition. This is because the Annan plan actually partitions the island + it creates an undemocratic and unstable situation + it makes us pay on top of that.

If you mean "worst than what we have now" then for the short term probably yes, and for the long term maybe yes.

Do you think it is impossible that Northern part of Cyprus will be recognized by some countries

First of all we should make clear that the TRNC is and will remain illegal according to the UN. The Annan plan is just a proposal that the Cyprus people can either accept or reject. To the contrary there are several UN resolutions that call for the withdrew of Turkish troops from Cyprus.

Still no, I don't think it is impossible to be recognized by some countries. But which will those countries be?

We will be members of the EU as a Republic of Cyprus. No EU or prospect EU country will recognize the TRNC.

British have their bases in Cyprus according to the 1960 Constitution. According to the Annan plan they again secure there bases in Cyprus for even. But if TRNC is recognized, then Republic Of Cyprus constitution cease to exist. This makes the British bases status uncertain something that neither the British nor the Americans would wish. So you can take the Americans out.
Of course their is no chance that Russia will recognize them since Russia is many times are biggest friend after Greece.

Who might recognize the TRNC are countries with very close relations with Turkey and no relations with Greece and Cyprus.

This can be some muslim and islamic countries, but not all of them. Turkey is one of the closest alies of US and Israel. Also it turns its back to its muslim/islamic Id and try to present themselves as Europeans. So Turkey doesn't have very close relationship with many other muslim countries. Also, Greece and Cyprus have better relationships than Turkey with some Arab countries like Syria, Iran, Lebanon and even Egypt.

Also, lets not forget that Cyprus will now be in the EU. Several of the middle east countries will want to do business with us. If for so many years they didn't recognize the TRNC, do you think that now that Cyprus is part of the EU they will recognize it because they will feel sorry of the poor Turkish Cypriots?

What we are left is Azerbaijan, Pakistan and maybe some more muslim countries.

it can get investments and develop further and maybe become a competitor of the Southern part of Cyprus in the future

Yes, maybe they will get some trade and some support now, but these investments and support will be only a fraction of what they could get if Cyprus problem is solved.

My conclusion is that we have to work for a solution that will benefit us - all Cypriots and not some foreigners. To do this we have to be united and ask for a true federation solution to be implemented in Cyprus.

I know T/C are as European as we are and they want to live in a democratic society within EU and not as a small "independent" country fully controlled by Turkey and with Pakistan and Azerbaijan etc as their closest friends.

[rengarenk]

Taiwan is recognised by 26 diplomatically light-weight countries (not the US, EU or any major power) but they have direct flights, trade with the rest of the world, investment, international phone code, internet domain etc etc.

So what will probably happen is a handful of countries will recognise, whilst the rest that have an interest will create relations just under recognition.

What the exact situation will be if this happens of course nobody knows...

[Piratis]

The story of Taiwan and Cyprus are very very different and non-comparable.

[metecyp]

The story of Taiwan and Cyprus are very very different and non-comparable.

I find it quite amuzing when you constantly compare Cyprus to other countries like USA, Belgium etc. in your favour, but somebody else compares Cyprus to some other country in his favour, you conclude that the story is different.

[Piratis]

You are wrong.
I use other countries as models. Did I ever say that Cyprus is just like the USA? That would mean that we are a superpower! I never said that of course.

What i said is that federation is what the USA has, and we would be willing to accept something similar for Cyprus.

So if you mean TRNC will be just like Taiwan in the sense that it will be "recognized by some diplomatically light-weight countries", this can be true and I already said it, didn't I?

But if you mean that TRNC will become the "Mediterranean Taiwan" meaning that it will become as successful as Taiwan, then this is the same joke as to say that Cyprus is a superpower.

Also, when I compare with other countries I use either all or most of them. For example I compare the "federation" proposed by Annan plan with all federations around the world. Or I compare what T/C can gain as a minority with what all minorities around the world get.

What you do is to find one country on the other side of the globe to make your comparisons.

[rengarenk]

Where was I comparing the story of Taiwan and Cyprus? Where did I imply Cyprus would follow the success of Taiwan?

I simply used Taiwan as an example of a country that can not be recognised as an independent state for political reasons but yet has excellent ties at all levels with the major countries in the world.

Your post implied that because only a few diplomatically lightweight muslim countries would recognise the north, the situation would somehow remain static and there should not be of concern.

The point you seem to be missing is that a 'No' vote in the south and a 'Yes' in the north would completely change the dynamics of the situation, it's not just about recognition or non-recognition.

[Piratis]

The point you seem to be missing is that a 'No' vote in the south and a 'Yes' in the north would completely change the dynamics of the situation, it's not just about recognition or non-recognition.

Our EU membership is also something that will change the dynamics.

The point that you seem to be missing is that nothing can be worst than Annan plan for Greek Cypriots. Also, nothing can be better for Turkish Cypriots than a solution based on a true federation democracy and human rights.

Even if on 25th of April they are recognized by the whole world. They will just be a tiny middle eastern country, a huge Turkish military base, and still a minority because of the settlers. Not to mention that in that case they will not be considered EU citizens since they will not belong to Republic of Cyprus anymore. Better than what they have now? Maybe. Better than what they could gain with a honest and fair compromise with G/C? Definitely not.

What you should understand is that we will not accept something just because some foreigners threaten us. A forced solution will certainly fail sooner or later and this is something we do not want.

[rengarenk]

Our EU membership is also something that will change the dynamics.

Yes it will, but not necessarily for the better. One of the overriding views from the G/C side was that guaranteed EU membership would result in a solution more on their terms, which has not been the case. Now the big EU countries say you should sign up to the Annan Plan. The Realpolitik of the situation is that G/C under ROC title will become EU members because of the Greek veto. Germany also said "no Poland, no enlargement", however look what happened when Poland vetoed the EU consitution because of voting rights. They became the black sheep and Germany browbeat them into changing their position.

Also, nothing can be better for Turkish Cypriots than a solution based on a true federation democracy and human rights.

A "true federation" as you put it would mean nothing more than being a political minority which the vast majority of T/C will not accept. As far as T/C are concerned the rights from 1960 are the baseline. Democracy and human rights does not guarentee one community will not dominate another hence the 1960 provisions.

Even if on 25th of April they are recognized by the whole world. They will just be a tiny middle eastern country, a huge Turkish military base, and still a minority because of the settlers.

The middle eastern/european identity issue is not a big obession with T/C like it is with Turkey, we've got more important things to worry about. The issue with the Turkish army is devisive as again a majority of T/C want some kind of millitary presence due to events from 63-74. Most T/C dont have a issue with settlers per se, the majority are as decent as any T/C. What T/C have an issue with is the authorities allowing construction companies and other businesses bringing in settlers for cheap labour and bringing in settlers for votes as Denktas and his cronies have done.

Not to mention that in that case they will not be considered EU citizens since they will not belong to Republic of Cyprus anymore.

The people to whom EU citizenship is the most important issue already have ROC passports, unless of course the impossible happens and the G/C recognise the north.

Better than what they have now? Maybe.

An end to isolation and embargoes will most definitely be better than the situation at the moment, you'ill be hard pressed to find any T/C who thinks otherwise.

Better than what they could gain with a honest and fair compromise with G/C? Definitely not.

Only T/C can judge what is best for them and the projection of a domineering "we know what's best for you" attitude from G/C does not help build any kind of good will. You are of course free to have your own views but to think that your opposite number will agree with your self-righteousness is a little naive.

What you should understand is that we will not accept something just because some foreigners threaten us.

Are they really threatening you? Or are the international community just telling you what will happen if you vote 'No'? Unless they are bluffing it is not a threat, you may feel threatend but is still not a threat. The UN, EU and US seem to know what's good for you in the same way you seem to know what is good for the T/C.

A forced solution will certainly fail sooner or later and this is something we do not want.

Like 1960 was a forced solution that gave the T/C everything they wanted and the G/C nothing? Things will fail if you want them to fail, this applies to both sides.