CopperLine wrote:Most GCs, it seems, see Turkey as the source of the continuing division of Cyprus. That being the case the question is surely whether Turkey in the EU is more or less likely to resolve the Cyprus division ? If you think it is less likely to solve the problem then surely you'd oppose Turkey's membership; if you thought it more likely to solve the problem then surely you'd be supporting Turkey's membership .
But there might be a prior argument about RoCs leverage. Those who think that RoC has leverage over Turkey's EU membership application in respect of the Cyprus division have to ask themselves what kind of leverage (and how much leverage) RoC has actually got. If, for example, you think that RoC's veto of Turkey's application will really be effective then what's the endgame ? A RoC veto which excluded Turkey would give Turkey no incentive at all to relinquish its hold on north Cyprus. Suppose you think that the veto threat is no more than that, a threat. Then the question is how much leverage has RoC got before its bluff is called. This is real brinkmanship - it could go horribly wrong, permanently for GCs.
Think of it as a game of chess : it's all in the long-run calculation of options and the subsequent optimum timing of moves.
Totally agree with you CopperLine. If you look closely, you will see, that it is people like Zan and VP who are the true partitionist who do not want Turkey in the EU. If Turkey does not get into the EU for what ever reason, then the partitionist feel safe that there never will be a Cyprus settlement, because Turkey will not push for one, and the present situation will remain as such, which is sweet music to the ears of the partitionist. On the other hand, the RoC knows full well, that in order to find a settlement, it requires Turkey's involvement, and for it's efforts, the RoC will not veto Turkey's entry into the EU. So I don't believe that the RoC is threatening Turkey with a veto vote into the EU unless Turkey does what the RoC wants, but rather the RoC will want to reward Turkey with a non veto vote for helping solve the Cyprus situation. The biggest NO TURKEY in the EU people are the TC Partitionist and not the GC's.
EU is Turkey's ticket for a better future for her country and it's citizens and she will not deny herself the chance to be in the EU by giving into the partitionist. I have never heard Turkey ask for partitioning of Cyprus. Lifting of embargoes, yes, but not partition. Turkey knows, that the day the "TRNC" is partitioned and it is recognised, it is the day her EU dreams are dead and gone. Turkey is not in the business of committing political suicide by denying her country EU membership over bunch of self centered, self serving, self interest partitionist who are in the minority to begin with in the "TRNC". At this point in time, Greece and Cyprus are Turkey's best friends for her EU membership, but of course, nothing comes without a cost, and the cost will be solving the Cyprus problem whether the partitionist will like it or not. The partitionist will never see the day of a partition, because no matter what any other country may say in opposing Turkey's entry into the EU now, they may in time change their attitudes towards Turkey, but if Turkey destroys her chances with the RoC now by giving into the partitionist, she will forever lose her EU membership chances.
I do not think Turkey is as dumb as the partitinist like to think so, that they will come before Turkish citizens....all 70 million of them. If the EU is so terrible as the partitionists want us to believe, then why are all the major, middle, and small countries are in it, which collectively have a GDP larger than the USA's. All these countries joined the EU club willingly and there are many more waiting in line to join. Make no mistake, that Turkey wants to join, and the RoC will help her, if Turkey helps the RoC also. As things stand now, Turkey will need to help solve the Cyprus problem before the RoC can help Turkey, so the ball is in Turkey's corner at the moment.