Cyprus-Forum.com

[observer]

Each Household may gain EUR 5500 from a Cyprus Solution
Thursday 6. March 2008

This was the point message in a new report launched by the PRIO Cyprus Centre today. More than 100 people came to the Ledra Palace in the buffer zone of Nicosia to attend the presentation of the report The day after: Commercial opportunities following a solution to the Cyprus problem by the three authors: Fiona Mullen, Özlem Oguz and Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou.
On the basis of experience with expanding trade between Greece and Turkey since the two countries normalized their relations in 1999, the authors have calculated the 'peace dividend' to be obtained from a solution to the Cyprus problem, given that this will give Cypriots a chance to trade with each other, Greek Cypriots to do trade with Turkey, and Turkish Cypriots full access to the EU's internal market. They have only calculated the benefit to a few key sectors, and have not included any estimate of what is to be gained from reconstruction projects following a solution. Still the benefit for each Cypriot household is estimated to be EUR 5500 in average per year during the first seven years after a solution.

The opening address was given by Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations in Cyprus Michael Møller, who said the report would make "an extremely valuable contribution to discussion about the future of the island." For Møllers's speech, follow this link.

For a Reuters report on the conference, follow this link.

PRIO Director Stein Tønnesson made welcoming remarks and introduced the speakers, while Manager of the PRIO Cyprus Centre Arne Strand moderated a panel of commentators, comprising Manthos Mavrommatis and Hasan Ince from the Chambers of commerce in each of the island's two communities, and the two economists Ayse Donmezer and Symeon Matsis.

All the speakers, and also a number of people in the audience, expressed a new optimism after a period of gloom. While in the past many people tended to focus on the costs of a reunification of Cyprus, there may now be a realization of the substantial benefits that could be reaped by all Cypriots.

http://www.prio.no/page/Forsiden_detalj ... 50925.html

[Oracle]

This is of little relevance compared to adopting the proper long-term solution for Cyprus.

Stooping to the level of enticing people with money for a quick solution, regardless of its fairness and suitability, are like door-to-door salesmen .... and should be treated accordingly.

I can see it would entice the Turk-TCs more as financially they are now realising they have shot themselves in the foot with the atrocity they perpetrated on Cyprus, that has failed to gain them recognition to allow them economic development.

There is only one solution and that is for Turkey to remove its troops, and allow the RoC to administer the whole Island, in the world-enviable way it has been conducting its governance since the invasion and frustrating obstacle presented in its midst ..... Turkey.

[Nikitas]

Rebuilding Famagusta is going to bring in way more than trade will bring. The question is whether it will go through the community or whether it will enrich the usual suspects in both communities.

[Piratis]

Of course a real solution will have many benefits for Cyprus. Did anybody ever doubt this? It goes without saying.

A bad agreement might have some benefits but it will have a lot more negatives that will far outweigh any benefits. This goes without saying as well. Unfortunately this report brushes away the many negatives of a bad solution by saying:

Deliberately avoiding the economics of any specific solution, we make one simple assumption: that the solution that would gain the majority support of both communities would be politically and economically sustainable.

So what they tell us is: "With the simple assumption that there will be a good solution, we can tell you that you will benefit from it". Well, thanks a lot Einstein!

But this report has even more flaws.

First of all it just looks at the benefits(meaning profits), not the losses. How better or worst off we will be in the end is the result of benefits minus the losses. (and in case of a bad agreement, the losses will far outweigh any benefits)

Secondly, talking about "averages" is misleading. If from a specific "solution" Observer makes 20000 profit, and I make 9000 loss, then the average for both of us is still 5500. The question is who is making the profits and who is making the losses. A bad solution of type of Annan plan would make the TCs and the Settlers much richer, while it would not benefit, but possibly harm, financially the majority of Greek Cypriots.

And thirdly I think their numbers are dubious. They say for example that tourism from Turkey will be about 4 times more if a solution is found. They base this just by making some analogy with Greece, but obviously it doesn't make any sense. Now Turks can go to the occupied areas without any visas or anything else, just like they would go to any part of Turkey, and when Cyprus will be reunited and Turks will have to get a Schengen kind of visa to enter Cyprus, 4 times more of them will come here as tourists???

This report was obviously made with the usual agenda of PRIO and its aim was to mislead people, not to enlighten them.

[Kikapu]

Now Turks can go to the occupied areas without any visas or anything else, just like they would go to any part of Turkey

........................and that's with Direct Flights, something that the "TRNC" has been complaining about, that is required to bring in more tourists.

I agree with you Piratis. Most of the report from "PRIO" is design to entice ill informed about the details of a "solution" by just throwing money in their faces, so that they can't see all the settlement details. It's a smoke screen. This is a classic case of
"Money talks, Bullshit walks".