Cyprus-Forum.com

[Andros]

This is what I predict of what will happen, in no specific order:

I believe that President Christofias and TC leader Talat will meet and talk with open arms for a short while as they are both Socialists!

After the romance, they will both start to express their dissatisfaction about their respective community's demands - Like Talat will say that we MUST have guarantorship, their must be Turkish Soldiers on the island and the federal structure must be based on TWO CONSTITUENT states, with a loose federal government with hardly no power and he'll want the Turkish Cypriots to have a substantial amount of land allocation - like 33% or so.

While President Christofias will naturally say that most of these are unacceptable, and would prefer a unified government with no constituent states, no foreign soldiers and definitely NO Guarantorship! Where a Cyprus government and its voting structure must be based on democracy - like the rest of the world!

Then, as we've always had, there will be stalemate, and that is when the EU, UN, US and UK will intervene and force our people into a referendum on what will probably be similar to the Annan Plan.

It is the outcome of such a referendum that I am most interested in hearing in what everyone else has to say will happen?

[eracles]

according to afracasia article christofias "is ready to accept the possibility of a federation on condition that Turkish troops leave the north of the island"

http://www.africasia.com/services/news/ ... yk08vx.php

"Cyprus agrees to meet Turkish-Cypriot counterpart for renewed territory talks

New Cypriot President Demetris Christofias said Thursday he would meet Turkish-Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat for talks this month on the future of the divided island.

He said during a visit to Athens that the meeting would probably be between March 17 and 24.

The communist party chief has made ending tensions caused by the division of the island following Turkey's invasion in 1974 the top priority of his government elected last month.

Christofias said he hoped to be able to announce the opening of two more crossing points on the UN-patrolled Green Line dividing the island.

But he warned against expecting too much from the meeting with Talat, who is still backing the 2004 Annan plan for the future of Cyprus. The plan was approved by Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the majorioty Greek Cypriots.

He said he was only willing to resume talks with the UN as mediator along the lines of a stalled July 2006 agreement between the two sides, which provided for cooperation on some specific matters like fighting crime while continuing to discuss power-sharing and territorial matters.

Christofias has said he is ready to accept the possibility of a federation on condition that Turkish troops leave the north of the island, which has been declared a separate state recognised only by Ankara."

[Andros]

You see, this is where we will hit a serious tree as the Turksstrongly believe that the Treaty of Guarantee is a fundamental part of any future unification agreement and will, according to all of their press annoucements so far, "Maintain the Security" that they desire.

According to some of the Turkish Cypriot NGOs I have had contacts with in the past, they have specifically said pinpointed the Security aspect of a federal structure as being the most important area for them. In other words, the right for Turkey to come and save their kin if inter-communal fighting should break out - why? Probably because the don't trust anyone else!

This is where we will fail, and where I strongly believe we will be tricked once again, like in the Annan Plan. However, this time will be different.

I believe that the "Turkish" security issue will once again be included in a federal agreement, we will reject it, and then the so-called TRNC will be recognised. That is why President Papadopoulos had always refused to take part in "UNITED NATIONS" sponsored talks and preferred talks chaired by the "EUROPEAN UNION". President Christofias, in my view, has just made the worst mistake in agreeing to UN Sponsored talks with the Turkish and Turkish Cypriots - that is exactly what they had wanted. If we are to based the talks on the 1960 agreements, then Turkey will be very happy indeed!

Your input would be very appreciated.

[alexISS]

Turkey has overused the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan plan as "proof" of their own conciliatoriness, to a point that they can no longer go back to being the intransigent party again. Now that Papadopoulos is gone (finally), a solution WILL be agreed, because Christofias WANTS a solution and because Turkey cannot AFFORD to do what they've been accusing the Greek Cypriots for so long.

[Nikitas]

Is there anyone out there who believes that Turkey would NOT protect the TCs in the event of intercommunal fighting withouth a guarantee in the Constitution? How naive people can get! With or without guarantee they would. The guarantee thing is a ploy to have a say in the island's business permanently. There would be crap like "you cannot build a road here, or a port there because it might in the event of fighting threaten ....". We know how that game goes. Free nations have sovereignty, and there is no such thing as diminished sovereignty. It is like being pregnant, you either are or you aint.

And once again the Greek side is not projecting the one and only thing the international community can and will understand- the proportions of territory. The rest is lost on foreigners. Territory is the number one item and our stumbling block all these years. We behave as if it does not matter, when we know damn well it is at the root of the whole deal. 18-82 and let it be whatever they want- federal, confederal, two states, two cantons etc.

And the other thing we must make clear to the so called "international factor" is that the division was, is and will be in the future Turks over there and everybody else over here. Let the leaders of the other communities speak and underline the fact that they too, are excluded from the north by the policy of Turks only. That too is something that the international community will understand. Fine details are lost on people who think along sports lines.

[Andros]

alexISS and Nikitas,

Excellent points! I totally agree. I just hope that President Christofias does not sell out to Turkish demands of allowing even one "Settler" to remain on Cyprus territory or exercise their so-called "Security" sensitive rights.

HOWEVER, I do not believe in this two-constituent state thing!.......

THIS IS WHY?
The Federation that is being sought, especially by the Turkish Cypriots and the United Nations, involve the dissolution of the "Republic of Cyprus" and replaces it with a "United Republic of Cyprus" - Which is exactly what they have been wanting since the early 1960s! It also legitimately splits the island into two "States".

My concern is this, what happens it things don't work out in a few years time?Will the Turkish Cypriot be able to declare independence as the "Turkish Cypriot State"? And, will we, then, have no other option as to become the "Greek Cypriot State" - another avenue that Turkey has always wanted.

You see Alexiss and Nikitas, the idea of dissolving the "Republic of Cyprus" and then setting up two constituent states under a United Cyprus, in my opinion, is a very bad recipe. I would Prefer a united Cyprus under the "REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS" at the very least as we surely can not refer back to it if the Turkish Cypriots should want to break away as the "Turkish Cypriot State" in a "United Cyprus" formula, and demand that we can not accept a deal that splits the people of Cyprus (all people that is) into two "Constituent" states.

Look at it this way: Let's imagine the Turkish Cypriots have used some kind of pretext to successfully break off (like Kosovo did) of a proposed "United Cyprus Republic" as the "Turkish Cypriot State". As the "Republic of Cyprus" was signed away after the establishment of this proposed United Cyprus Republic, and will not be able to be resurfaced after this UN agreement, Would you be happy being known as "The Greek Cypriot State"?

In other words, the term "CYPRUS" would no longer exist, thus being replaced with the terms GCS and TCS - Can you imagine that! I don't know about you, but I would rather prefer to stay as we are, at least one side represents Cyprus in its entirety, will not alginate the Armenian and Maronite minorities and will not convert the Cyprus Republic into two official Greek/Turkish quarters, including two British Bases!

[alexISS]

Andros, if you find the current status quo convenient, you should remember that it is as it is because for 30 years Turkey refused to negotiate a solution, so, the rest of the world sided with the RoC. Now things have changed, if the Greek Cypriots refuse to negotiate there's no way the status quo will remain. The "TRNC" will be recognized as it is and the RoC will be only representing the Greek Cypriots. It was mainly Turkey that has been sustaining the current political situation in Cyprus with its intransigence, not the diplomatic skills of Greeks or Greek Cypriots

[Andros]

True, true,

Although it does not necessarily mean that we should jump to any old agreement only because of what the "External" powers believe!

Actually, I was thinking more along the lines of the "Type" of agreement, rather than the status quo. As you've rightly said, our current situation is unacceptable and non-sustainable - thus, could pose a serious threat if an initiative does not produce a federal deal in the near future.

However, what I would like to add is that the international community now realise and respect our negative answer on the Annan Plan, while according to the recent statement from Mr Talat, it appears that he is once again dragging us into another Annan scenario - with his call for two-constituent states and a "Partnership" federation. We must realise that his idea of a Partnership federation means = Two Constituent States! and not a Bi-Communal government only.

[Nikitas]

Referring to the international community as if they were the repository of some great wisdom is wrong tactics.

To prove it just think of this- we are talking about accepting the dissolution of a unified multiethnic, multi cultural nation, accepting an etthnic division of the island so that the resulting amalgamation of two "pure" ethnic regions will function with no problems in the multi ethnic, multi cultural, multi religious EU.

We have now and we had in the past a PR problem. We have failed to point out the obvious unfairness of 18 per cent of the population taking over 37 per cent of the land. We failed to make it plain that the north is Turks only and the south is for everyone else. It is not a simple Greeks V Turks argument here. There has never been any projection of the existence of other communities of Cyprus other than Greeks and Turks.

Just imagine the impact of asking the UN to include the Armenian, Maronie, Latin and Rom communities at least in some stages of the talks.

Communal equality exists regardless of population. All communities must be involved in the settlement process. Their participation would illustrate in very clear terms that the policy is Turks first, and from that point on it can be overturned.

Now that we have an Armenian Parliament Speaker who is also Vice President, we can project the true multicultural aspect of the south and the ethnic purity of the north.

[cymart]

Even if the present republic is dissolved,provided both parts of the new one are in the E.U. I cannot see why it matters so much.The main thing is the security aspect with the withdrawal of the Turkish Army to a token number which will be confined to a base somewhere in the north and any future disputes be considered as internal matters for the E.U. to sort out. If things finally don't work out, rememeber thatCzechoslovakia split into two E.U. states without any problems so far and get along fine.
Of course there has to be a reduction in the territory held by the north to a level which the south can accept.Most important,there have to be effective international guarantees that the agreement will be implemented by all parties without anyone having the right of unilateral intervention...