Cyprus-Forum.com

[CopperLine]

The emerging discussion on demilitarisation in the 'Denktas Cyprus passport' thread was obviously in the wrong thread .... Here's my post again....

I think DT. is right. Demilitarise the whole island.

It is a fundamental mistake to believe that Cyprus, whether united or partitioned, would ever have the economic or financial wherewithall to establish and maintain its own military force which would have even a deterrent effect.

Look at (a) the military budget of Cyprus (RoC on its own, or RoC plus TRNC) and then look at the military budget of Turkey, Greece, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt i.e, Cyprus' immediate neighbours. See the authoritative : http://first.sipri.org/non_first/milex.php

Cyprus 2005 = 1.4% of GDP 2006 = US$239m

Turkey 2005 = 2.8% of GDP 2006 = US$11291m

Greece 2005 = 4.1% of GDP 2006 = US$9642m

Lebanon 2005 = 4.5% of GDP 2006 = US$899m

Syria 2005 = 5.1% of GDP 2006 = US$5526m

Israel 2005 = 9.7% of GDP 2006 = US$11373m

Egypt 2005 = 2.8% of GDP 2006 = US$2710m


Let's put the above in proportion : Turkey spends about the same in 1 week what Cyprus spends in 1 year on the military.

Then consider that (b) of these only Turkey and possibly (but I don't really think so) Greece can be said to have any 'territorial ambitions'.

On the assumption that Cyprus does not have territorial ambitions against any of these countries - I've never heard anyone suggest this - then the need for a military to face an external military threat is either simply non-existent or, at most, simply impossible to maintain (viz. Turkey). The active use of the military of course assumes that there is the political will to do so, and the record of the last thirty four years is that RoC has not had the political will nor the military capacity to militarily eject Turkey from Cyprus.

Of these neighbours all have maritime claims which do or might conflict with Cyprus claims (again whether of a united or partitioned Cyprus). Therefore if any armed service is needed, then there may be a case for maritime - not military - forces.

The blunt reality is that Cyprus was, is and will remain a military minnow. The only practical target of a Cyprus military is ... Cypriots.

Let's just demilitarise. The immediate effect of that is to pull the rug from under the feet of the Turkish military's justification for continued presence on the island. Demilitarisation is a win for Turkish Cypriots, foir Greek Cypriots, for all islanders, and for peace.

_________________

[Oracle]

CopperLine ...

Cyprus is no longer a single military entity. It is part of a greater whole.

Your data as presented, are not comprehensive, merely partial, and hence invalid, for consideration towards your hypothesis.

Cyprus need only have enough to act as a deterrent towards Turkey initiating a launch.

[CopperLine]

Oracle

Yes, Cyprus is part of a military network and alliance systems. What happens to Cyprus militarily is crucially not a matter of Cyprus' choosing; it is something entirely dependent on alliance politics. If Cyprus is to be sacrificed by the alliance, then that is what will happen. If Cyprus is to be saved by the alliance, then that is what will happen. Cyprus' military is simply not now in a position to determine the politics of the alliance, will not be in the future and for most of its post-independence history was unable to determine those politics.

Cyprus need only have enough to act as a deterrent towards Turkey initiating a launch.

There are 40,000 Turkish troops in Cyprus !! Some deterrent !

I suppose the pivotal question is this : (i) there are those who think that the Turkish military has not taken over the whole island because of some deterrent power of Cyprus OR (ii) there are those who think that the Turkish military has not taken over the whole of the island because they don't want to. I'm firmly of the second view.

[Nikitas]

Turkey has that vast military spending because Turkey has 775000 square kilometers to defend, needs three naval forces to look after her Black Sea, Aegean and Eastern Med coastline. Turkey also has a posture which is set to project power beyond its territory and tense relations with more than one of its neighbors and several million of its citizens, the Kurds.

Cyprus is an island with its 12 mile maximum territorial sea to defend. Cyprus has no need to project power beyond these territorial limits.

If the military honchos were to think out of the box and stop doing things and buying stuff because that is what they taught them at military college, then it is possible for Cyprus to accomplish by military means what is necessary to expell the Turkish troops and in addition to prevent any counterattack. But this will not happen because our military go the same schools as other military people and learn the same theories which they repeat ad infinitum- ie if you are attacking you must have three times the tanks (planes, ships etc) of the defending force.

I have talked to military folk and it is surprising how little they know of the latest technolgies which have the potential to change warfare very soon.

As for the effectivenes of modern weaponry against a determined army one can look at the interview given by the NATO commander Clarke after the Kossovo campaign. After weeks of intense bombing the NATO planes had managed to destroy 15 trucks, a great number of decoy tanks and as Clarke said "the Serbs had the upper hand on the ground all along".

It is also interesting that the Apache helicopter, which costs over 20 million each, could not fly in Kossovo unless a special metal grid was laid on the ground, and special antipersonnel missiles would saturate the mountains to kill all Serb soliders. In other words these expensive toys can only operate when the enemy is dead, which raises the question "why buy them?".

A properly trained and equipped force of 5000 soldier can turn the tables in Cyprus. But the military would never believe that. These soldier would have so much to learn they would not have time to stand to attention and salute, and that makes them unacceptable to the military establishment.

[CopperLine]

Nikitas
Let us assume for a moment that you are right in your assessment of the strengths of new technologies and that '5,000 soldiers could turn the tables' (which I actually think is completely mistaken, but let's not go into that at the moment). Such a transformation of the military would require a revolution in political will - and there is nothing over the last thirty-forty years to even hint at such a change. Furthermore the mode of warfare which such a military force would be obliged to conduct would result in a very dirty war. That is to say civilian deaths would be high, war would be prolonged, and endurance of attrition be the deciding factor. Turkey's is the only military against which such a war might conceivably be fought and the suggestion that a 5,000 force could do the job is not only suicidal but would result in the utter destruction of Cyprus.

and it is surprising how little they know of the latest technolgies which have the potential to change warfare very soon.

That may be the case with the people you talk to, but it is not with the people I talk to. What any military planner with their salt knows is that in planning for a war-fight (a) do not put your trust in technological innovation (b) do not put your trust in technological superiority. The 'enemy' is not sitting still, is not ignoring new technologies and new war fighting methods. For every offensive weapon system there is an anti-system which is or has been developed. The crucial question is the time-lag between operationalising anti- or responsive systems.

If Cyprus and Cypriots are willing to massively increase its military spending - and when I say massively, I'm thinking of a minimum of 10 times its current spending - whilst also willing to forgo spending on say education and/or health or transport etc, then it can perhaps begin to acquire some of this unspecified but wizard technologies. Of course such wizard technologies would be sourced from countries who would retain technical control eg, anything that required satellite relay/communication. And in this fantasy scenario the moment that the Cyprus government approved a fivefold, tenfold, whateverfold increase in its military budget then consider what Turkey's reaction will be ?!!!


Nikitas, whilst I appreciate and understand peoples objections to demilitarisation I find proposals for military development along the lines you suggested not just terrifying but actually would result in a serious destabilisation which would be immensely difficult to re-balance.

[Kifeas]

Nikitas
Let us assume for a moment that you are right in your assessment of the strengths of new technologies and that '5,000 soldiers could turn the tables' (which I actually think is completely mistaken, but let's not go into that at the moment). Such a transformation of the military would require a revolution in political will - and there is nothing over the last thirty-forty years to even hint at such a change. Furthermore the mode of warfare which such a military force would be obliged to conduct would result in a very dirty war. That is to say civilian deaths would be high, war would be prolonged, and endurance of attrition be the deciding factor. Turkey's is the only military against which such a war might conceivably be fought and the suggestion that a 5,000 force could do the job is not only suicidal but would result in the utter destruction of Cyprus.

and it is surprising how little they know of the latest technolgies which have the potential to change warfare very soon.

That may be the case with the people you talk to, but it is not with the people I talk to. What any military planner with their salt knows is that in planning for a war-fight (a) do not put your trust in technological innovation (b) do not put your trust in technological superiority. The 'enemy' is not sitting still, is not ignoring new technologies and new war fighting methods. For every offensive weapon system there is an anti-system which is or has been developed. The crucial question is the time-lag between operationalising anti- or responsive systems.

If Cyprus and Cypriots are willing to massively increase its military spending - and when I say massively, I'm thinking of a minimum of 10 times its current spending - whilst also willing to forgo spending on say education and/or health or transport etc, then it can perhaps begin to acquire some of this unspecified but wizard technologies. Of course such wizard technologies would be sourced from countries who would retain technical control eg, anything that required satellite relay/communication. And in this fantasy scenario the moment that the Cyprus government approved a fivefold, tenfold, whateverfold increase in its military budget then consider what Turkey's reaction will be ?!!!


Nikitas, whilst I appreciate and understand peoples objections to demilitarisation I find proposals for military development along the lines you suggested not just terrifying but actually would result in a serious destabilisation which would be immensely difficult to re-balance.

What's your point, Copperline, if you have one?

[CopperLine]

What's your point, Copperline, if you have one?

Kifeas,
I'd have thought that was obvious ! Don't intensify the military, don't set off on an arms race, don't follow a military logic : if you want peace don't prepare for war.

Do demilitarise.

[denizaksulu]

CopperLine ...

Cyprus is no longer a single military entity. It is part of a greater whole.

Your data as presented, are not comprehensive, merely partial, and hence invalid, for consideration towards your hypothesis.

Cyprus need only have enough to act as a deterrent towards Turkey initiating a launch.

What deterrent do you talk about OrPh. No deterent would stop Turkey from doing what she wants. The only deterent is the Cypriot people, United. Do you think that waving a red rug at Turkey would stop her in her tracks? Get real please.

[Kifeas]

What's your point, Copperline, if you have one?

Kifeas,
I'd have thought that was obvious ! Don't intensify the military, don't set off on an arms race, don't follow a military logic : if you want peace don't prepare for war.

Do demilitarise.

Why? Did we ask you to pay the bill?

[Oracle]

What's your point, Copperline, if you have one?

Kifeas,
I'd have thought that was obvious ! Don't intensify the military, don't set off on an arms race, don't follow a military logic : if you want peace don't prepare for war.

Do demilitarise.

Why? Did we ask you to pay the bill?