CopperLine wrote:I think DT. is right. Demilitarise the whole island.
It is a fundamental mistake to believe that Cyprus, whether united or partitioned, would ever have the economic or financial wherewithall to establish and maintain its own military force which would have even a deterrent effect.
Look at (a) the military budget of Cyprus (RoC on its own, or RoC plus TRNC) and then look at the military budget of Turkey, Greece, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt i.e, Cyprus' immediate neighbours. See the authoritative :
http://first.sipri.org/non_first/milex.phpCyprus 2005 = 1.4% of GDP 2006 = US$239m
Turkey 2005 = 2.8% of GDP 2006 = US$11291m
Greece 2005 = 4.1% of GDP 2006 = US$9642m
Lebanon 2005 = 4.5% of GDP 2006 = US$899m
Syria 2005 = 5.1% of GDP 2006 = US$5526m
Israel 2005 = 9.7% of GDP 2006 = US$11373m
Egypt 2005 = 2.8% of GDP 2006 = US$2710m
Let's put the above in proportion : Turkey spends about the same in 1 week what Cyprus spends in 1 year on the military.
Then consider that (b) of these only Turkey and possibly (but I don't really think so) Greece can be said to have any 'territorial ambitions'.
On the assumption that Cyprus does not have territorial ambitions against any of these countries - I've never heard anyone suggest this - then the need for a military to face an external military threat is either simply non-existent or, at most, simply impossible to maintain (viz. Turkey). The active use of the military of course assumes that there is the political will to do so, and the record of the last thirty four years is that RoC has not had the political will nor the military capacity to militarily eject Turkey from Cyprus.
Of these neighbours all have maritime claims which do or might conflict with Cyprus claims (again whether of a united or partitioned Cyprus). Therefore if any armed service is needed, then there may be a case for maritime - not military - forces.
The blunt reality is that Cyprus was, is and will remain a military minnow. The only practical target of a Cyprus military is ... Cypriots.
Let's just demilitarise. The immediate effect of that is to pull the rug from under the feet of the Turkish military's justification for continued presence on the island. Demilitarisation is a win for Turkish Cypriots, foir Greek Cypriots, for all islanders, and for peace.
CopperLine,
Asking for Cyprus to demilitarize just because Turkey spends more money than Cyprus is hardly a justification for any nation to remain defenseless. If that is the case, then Turkey should demilitarize because Russia is spending more than Turkey and any war between them, Russia would have the upper hand because they have many more weapons than Turkey. But of course we all know, that short of using Nuclear weapons, it does not mean that Russia will be successful in defeating Turkey with conventional weapons despite having more toys. USA the Superpower with one of the most advance military forces in the world who spends about the same amount in Iraq and Afghanistan per month, about 12 Billion US Dollars as Turkey spends in a whole year, and lets not forget USA's annual Defence spending is around 500 Billion US Dollars, cannot defeat few thousand ragtag fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan with US troops around 200,000. USA, Turkey, Israel may be able to defeat the enemy in an open conventional warfare, but when it comes to "guerrilla warfare" they are "flatfooted" just as Israel has found out with the Palestinians and Turkey with the PKK. Turkey has 100,000 troops along the border with Iraq and yet the PKK can come into Turkey and kill Turkish Troops at will. In the last 30 years, the PKK has proven over and over again, that Turkey's great military power is ineffective against them.
The only major war the USA with it's mighty military power it ever lost (until Iraq) was in Vietnam, because the West is not use to fighting guerrilla wars, but the enemy with low budgets have taken a lesson from Vietnam and are now using it themselves against Western military might.
So lets assume that Cyprus can have 100,000 trained militia force and give them guerrilla warfare training, I would doubt any nation would want to try and invade Cyprus with their conventional military force, despite with a small budget. But even the military budget you have given above for Cyprus, it is bigger than Turkey's per capita as well as per square kilometers to be protected. Also spending the money for defensive purposes only, which Turkey does for both, defensive and offensive, Cyprus actually is in better position.
Switzerland is a peaceful and neutral country. They stay out of wars and no one else bothers them. You would think they would not need a military force, but they have a very advance military force including Swiss Air Force, even though they do not have a regular army. They are mostly trained militia force, for defensive purpose only. It is often said here, that
"Switzerland does not have an Army, because Switzerland is an Army", meaning that the Swiss can get thousands on duty overnight, because they are already trained and their weapons are at home. All men need to do compulsory service, but voluntary for women.
Military of Switzerland
Manpower
Military age 17-34
Conscription 19-34 years of age obligatorily
36 for subaltern officers, 52 for staff officers and higher
Available for military service
1,707,694 males, age 19–49 (2005 est.),
1,662,099 females, age 19–49 (2005 est.)
Fit for military service
1,375,889 males, age 19–49 (2005 est.),
1,342,945 females, age 19–49 (2005 est.)
Reaching military age annually
46,319 males (2005 est.),
43,829 females (2005 est.)
Expenditures
Budget $3.1 billion (FY98)
Percent of GDP 1% (2006 est.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Switzerland
As you can see from the above, one can spend relatively little amount of money, and still have a very effective defensive militia force.
My only concern is, can the TC's and GC's can fight side by side to defend Cyprus against any enemy, domestic or foreign effectively. If Turkey were to attack in the future, what will the TC's and remaining settlers do. Will they take arms against Turkey and same for the GC's, will they take arms against Greece. The British won't receive the same consideration if push came to shove by any Cypriot. The Swiss Germans, French, and Italians will fight against the Germans, the French and the Italians, because they see themselves Swiss first and will protect their land against anyone. I'm not so sure that the GC's and the TC's have the same commitment against their "cousins".
