Published: April 28 2008 03:00
The danger in dashing Turkey's European dream
By John Thornhill
Over the past 50 years, the European Union has been stunningly successful at exporting a precious commodity: stability. The promise of EU membership helped Spain and Portugal emerge from fascistic dictatorships. It has also eased the transition of many central and eastern European countries from Soviet-dominated command economies into thriving market demo-cracies. Why should the EU's magic potion not work on Turkey, a country that similarly yearns for stability and acceptance within Europe?
The opponents of Turkey's accession argue that the country is too big, too poor and too alien to join the EU. They say that with a population of 72m, per capita income well below the European average and a fiercely nationalistic political culture that veers between soft authoritarianism and Islamist-tinged populism, Turkey can never be a happy member of the European club. Turkey's latest bout of political instability only confirms its unsuitability. The attempt by the judicial authorities to close the governing Justice and Development party (AKP) and ban democratically elected politicians, including the president and prime minister, from office highlights Turkey's distance from the EU, they say.
France, which takes over the rotating presidency of the EU in July, formally opposes Turkey's full membership and holds out the prospect of a "privileged partnership" instead. In a pre-election book, President Nicolas Sarkozy wrote that Turkey's accession would "deal a fatal blow to the very notion of European identity".
Over the past few months, France has softened its tone. During its six-month EU presidency, it may open two or three more chapters in Turkey's accession process. There is even the remotest chance France could help broker a deal on the divided island of Cyprus, removing one of the biggest obstacles to Turkish accession. But Paris insists it will block the opening of five of the 35 chapters that presuppose full EU membership, including those concerning the euro, the budget and regional policy.
Seen from Turkey, the readiness of some EU members to rethink the accession process as it goes along is insulting. In 2005, all EU members backed the opening of accession talks. France's change of tack under Mr Sarkozy particularly rankles and has led to a backlash against French commercial interests in Turkey. In some respects, Turkey's revolutionary republic modelled itself on France: the Turks, like the French, believe in the strict separation of state and church (or mosque). "Turkey is a French wannabe country," says Mustafa Akyol, a writer.
Turkey's economic resurgence has been stimulating the EU economy. The country contributes to most other European institutions too. It even participates in Europe's football championship and Eurovision Song Contest. For years, Turkey has played a vital role in Nato. "By treaty, history, institutional engagement, security orientation and ideological ambition, Turkey is a European country," the International Crisis Group think-tank has argued.
That said, Turkey is still a country in evolution. Much can change - on both sides - over the next few years. Within the EU, Turkey is partly an unwitting victim of a debate about whether to broaden or deepen the organisation. Some federalists are convinced that Turkey's accession would kill their ambitions of deepening European integration. The debate about Turkey is often about far more than just Turkey.
Even if it fulfils all the EU's stringent accession criteria, Turkey could not join the EU before 2014 for budget reasons. By then, public opinion in the EU may have evolved and Mr Sarkozy may no longer be in office. It could even be that the Turkish people will themselves conclude that full EU membership involves an excessive dilution of their political sovereignty.
Since his re-election last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, has failed to implement further reforms and is locked in arm-wrestling with the judiciary. Turkey has a long way to go to comply with EU democratic norms and protection of minorities, notably the Kurds. One European observer sums up the state of EU-Turkey relations thus: "We pretend to let you in, while you pretend to reform."
However great the uncertainty, it is clear that further convergence between the EU and Turkey benefits both sides. For the moment, it is better to travel hopefully together than to squabble about the final destination. To impede Turkey's accession process is therefore folly, turning the EU's magic potion into poison and threatening the instability it was created to prevent.
The writer is editor, FT Europe edition
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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