It has already been almost four years since the last substantial step toward solving the Cyprus problem. That last step was the Annan Plan and the twin referenda held on its future. All following happenings, including the "July 8 Agreement" (a procedural agreement signed between Talat and Papadopoulos on July 8, 2006 confirming the commitment of both leaders to a bizonal, bicommunal and federal settlement) were merely futile diluters of a bitter taste that stayed in many who sincerely tried to facilitate reunification.
During these last four years we have not heard much – if anything at all – about scheduled plans to do something about the Cyprus stalemate. The European Union that should have behaved responsibly at least in terms of historical reputation – being dubbed a cradle of justice – minimized its interest in Cyprus problem to Turkey's pre-accession. Collective psychosis could have been observed in some member states where people (interestingly also those in charge of decision making) who hardly knew there was ever any Customs Union in place between Turkey and the European Communities furiously asked about the ports and the airports whenever the word "Cyprus" was uttered.
As if everything else was all right, as if the acquis communautaire was not suspended in northern Cyprus, as if this suspension was not used as a pretext for blocking the Direct Trade [with the Turkish Cyprus] Regulation proposed by the European Commission and as if the suspension was not there "pending the settlement" (which would obviously be a result of good will only from all sides), we have been kept busy by the Greek Cypriots policy to dictate conditions for Turkey's European path.
Needless to say, this intransigent policy while finding a way into the EU common foreign or commercial policy has not brought anyone an inch closer to settlement of the problem. As the incumbent Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos and his political companions have been widely recognized as the primary source of this intransigency, the magical answer to all “when” questions [when will there be a right time to start a new round of negotiations] has been “after the elections.”
Finally, the Greek Cypriot presidential elections are here and in one week from now no one will be able to use this excuse for the following four years. It is highly probable there will be a fresh "helping-hand" initiative by the United Nations but not under a full umbrella scheme. As Turkish Cypriot President Mehmet Ali Talat said at a meeting at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) Friday, Turkish Cypriots are still ready for talks about the bicommunal, bizonal federation based on power-sharing and political equality with the Greek Cypriots.
The most promising counterpart for such talks from all three presidential candidates on the Greek Cypriot side, as far as possibility of a concrete outcome is concerned, has been believed to be Ioannis Kasoulides. Such a belief is supported by the fact that his party, Democratic Rally (DISY), supported the Annan Plan in 2004. Well, the Demetris Christofias' Progressive Left Workers Party (AKEL) initially criticized Papadopoulos' negative stance as well and praised the virtues of the Annan Plan in the detailed analysis, only to eventually condemn it with a great “hurrah.”
Thus it is really difficult to say much about the future of yet another effort for the settlement. Reading Kasoulides' words, as reported by The Cyprus Weekly from the meeting of the EPP-ED Group Bureau in Nicosia, who said referring to the Cyprus problem, "[U]nfortunately, the Cyprus issue has been turned from one of an invasion and occupation into the so-called Turkish Cypriot isolation and this creates a lot of problems for us [the Greek Cypriots]. We have to win back our friends [...]" one might ask what “winning back friends” by the Greek Cypriots has to do with finding the settlement in Cyprus. While with or without friends the word “occupation” has never been used by the international community, the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots has been mentioned as the fact in the UNSG's reports as well as various EU bodies' declarations. Besides, since the final solution is to be found between the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriots, would it not be more natural to try to direct that reconciliatory effort somewhere geographically closer? Well, soon it will be clear where that will be directed. ([email protected])