Cyprus-Forum.com

[Bananiot]

Have you voted yet cannedmoose? What are your last minute forecasts?

[cannedmoose]

Have you voted yet cannedmoose? What are your last minute forecasts?

No Bananiot, I'm voting tomorrow morning.. going to take a pleasant stroll in the predicted sunshine to cast my ballot... I'm literally drooling with excitement at the prospect...

As for my last minute forecast, I have a 'special election coverage' thread where I've outlined my forecast compared to the pollsters prediction of a Labour landslide:

http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.p ... 8&start=20

My final prediction is for a closer-run thing than many people think, purely because I think people will vote tactically in the marginals.

Labour 347 (-56)
Conservative 213 (+48 )
Lib Dems 60 (+9)
Others 26 (-1)

Labour overall majority of 48.

If this is the case, then Blair will be in deep trouble during the next Parliament. He's got a hard-core of dissident Labour MPs that have traditionally exceeded this number. Thus, he would potentially have trouble mustering a majority to pass legislation. In addition, such a collapse in the majority would fuel tension within the party as to the viability of Blair remaining as party leader for the rest of the term. The 'Brownite' camp would be strengthened and may try to force Blair to go after just 18 months or so. This might not be resisted by a number of MPs fearing that with such a smaller majority, the potential for a Conservative victory in the 2010(?) elections is all the greater.

Anyway, this prediction of mine is the most pessimistic for Labour. I think a majority of between 60 and 70 is more likely. I think the model I've used gives the Tories too much of a boost and possibly underplays the Lib Dems. It also stems from predicting a low turnout, which some pollsters are beginning to back away from, saying that we might see an increase from 59% in 2001 to about 64% this time around. We'll see tomorrow...

[Alexis]

moose,

The polls are predicting more like a 100-120 majority for Labour.
Personally I think I'm more in line with your thinking (60-70 majority).
However, what are your thoughts regarding a Tory government
and their possible stance towards the Cyprus issue?
Do you think anything will change?

PS: No sign of sunshine down here in Kent, what's it like up in Loughborough?

[brother]

The same in herts its shit weather.

[cannedmoose]

moose,

The polls are predicting more like a 100-120 majority for Labour.
Personally I think I'm more in line with your thinking (60-70 majority).
However, what are your thoughts regarding a Tory government
and their possible stance towards the Cyprus issue?
Do you think anything will change?

PS: No sign of sunshine down here in Kent, what's it like up in Loughborough?

Aaah Kent, garden of England and my birthplace (Man of Kent, not Kentish Man...), how I miss it so...

Cloudy but warm here ooop north... not a bad day...

I'll be stunned if the polls are accurate on this one, we'll have to see what the exit polls say tonight to see if our thoughts on a 60-70 majority are right.

I doubt anything would change with a Tory government (god forbid!) in power. British policy towards Cyprus is very much set in stone and focussed on encouraging dialogue whilst maintaining Britain's rights on the island (i.e. the bases and spy stations). So long as nothing affects those, I don't see Britain alone taking a proactive stance.

An interesting possible development under Blair will be his forthcoming meeting with Papadopoulos. I'm interested to see why Blair formally invited TPap for a state visit at this point in time, it's got to be for some reason beyond the normal handshakes and photo-ops (unless Blair's thinking that anyone could look good in a photo next to TPap!). We'll have to wait and see.

[Alexis]

Sun's finally emerged down in Kent.
Looks like it's gonna be a good evening.
Enjoy your walk to the polling station (that is if you haven't been already)

[cannedmoose]

Dammit, cloudy here now...

Where in glorious Kentdom Alexi re? I'm originally from Chatham

[Alexis]

I was in Canterbury from age 7 onwards.
I now live and work in Rochester, so down the road from you.

Small world isn't it?

[Bananiot]

Sorry to barge in like this guys. Just to respond to cannedmoose's question on the forthcoming meeting between Blair and Papadopoulos. Today, Papadopoulos met the Condoliza Rice envoy, Ms Kennedy who is visiting the area (Turkey, Cyprus, Greece) and it has just been reported that once again our President turned down the call to give the changes he wants to the Annan plan. Probably, Blair will ask the same question but of course our brave leader will tell him too that he can go and drown himself. Remember when Anna himself called upon Papadopoulos (from London) to hand him the changes? That day Papadopoulos said that the SG was not objective. "Why in heaven, he asked, doesn't the SG, also ask the TC side to hand over the changes they want?"

I have a suggestion cannedmoose. Give us Blair for 6 months and you can have ours for a year.

[cannedmoose]

I was in Canterbury from age 7 onwards.
I now live and work in Rochester, so down the road from you.

Small world isn't it?

Certainly is...