-mikkie2- wrote:I recon there could be a few surprises in this election. Many people are quietly annoyed with labour. I did not appreciate their raid on my pension fund and all the back-door taxes they have raised.
Although we're generally annoyed with Labour, I don't think we're annoyed enough to vote in Michael 'Something of the night about him' Howard. Plus, if you consult Peter Snow's 'Swingometer' at the web link below (something of a British tradition in itself!) you'll see that it'll take a 6.5% swing from Labour voters to the Tories for a hung parliament (in which case I'm sure there would be a deal between Labour and Lib-Dems and a 10.5% swing for the Tories to win a majority. The British system is designed to make revolutionary changes almost impossible, 1997 was an anomoly in that respect, but an anomoly that was clearly coming.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005 ... labcon.stm
I think the biggest surprise in this election could be turnout, we were down below 60% last time around, if it gets much lower the government's legitimacy to represent will be rightly called into question. Plus, if turnout is low, it will likely be indicative of Labour voter abstentions which could damage their results in some marginal seats still further. I predict that they'll come out with a majority of just over 60 seats, which most past British governments would have sawn off their right arm for.
Another thing to look at for is tactical voting. It worked in Labour's favour in both 1997 and 2001, it'll be interesting to see how it works against them this time, particularly in seats where the battleground is between Labour and Lib-Dem. If it works well, we could see the Lib-Dems with 70-odd seats meaning we have a truly tri-partite system for the first time in 70 years.
I'm looking forward to it, should be a good show (voting Lib-Dem by the way).