halil wrote:Some European countries with regions that have declared their independence unilaterally are holding presidential elections back to back: Georgia (Abkhazia), Serbia (Kosovo), Greek Cyprus (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, KKTC), Armenia and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh).
In the Georgian elections held on Jan. 5, Mikhail Saakashvili reclaimed his presidency. In Serbia, the second round of the presidential elections was held on Feb. 3 and Boris Tadic won. Both leaders view integration into the European-Atlantic world positively. Greek Cyprus will hold its presidential elections on Feb. 17. The presidential elections in Armenia will be held on Feb. 19 and those of Azerbaijan will be on Oct. 15. Kosovo is expected to declare its independence unilaterally before the EU foreign ministers meeting on Feb. 18.
Lawyers from the US and the EU, while defending the independence of Kosovo, point to the following differences between Serbia and Kosovo: Since the NATO bombardment in 1999, the Belgrade government has had no influence or sanctions on Kosovo. Kosovo has its own parliament and government. It holds elections freely. It also has an independent army, security forces and a flag as well as a different currency. However, the reasons cited as imperative for independence hold true also for the KKTC and Abkhazia. Therefore, while Turkey and the KKTC view Kosovo's independence positively, Greece and Greek Cyprus have a negative view, despite the generally positive atmosphere in the EU toward Kosovo's independence.
If the Kremlin fails to prevent Kosovo's independence, it may well bring Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdinyester (Pridnestrovye) and Nagorno-Karabakh to the negotiating table at the UN Security Council. It seems that the likely missile attack the United States planned to launch against Iran's nuclear facilities will also be at the negotiating table in question. We have to wonder whether the Russian Federation will come to terms with the European-Atlantic world regarding the principle of "Velvet Separation" in Kosovo, Abkhazia and the KKTC. That is, will the "Czechoslovakia" solution be possible? Will it really be possible for both pairs of communities -- KKTC-Greek Cyprus and Abkhazia-Georgia -- to officially divorce first and then to be reunited under the EU roof but in different rooms?
Abkhazia has been strengthening its diplomatic ties with countries still not recognized by the United Nations, including the KKTC. The first visit in this context was made by Abkhazia Deputy Foreign Minister Maxim Gvincija to the KKTC between Jan. 5 and 8. In this way, the relations between the KKTC and Abkhazia were initiated at the official level. The target is to open an Abkhazian consulate there and then to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan and Somaliland, an African state bordered by Djibouti, Ethiopia and Somali that declared its de facto independence from Somalia in 1991.
Washington's goal is to finalize Kosovo's process of independence prior to NATO's Bucharest summit between April 2 and 4. The United States may try to prevent any resentment from Serbia and Georgia toward Kosovo and Abkhazia by expediting their process of integration into the European-Atlantic world. In fact, despite German and French opposition, the United States wants them to be a part of the Membership Action Plan (MAP), which opened NATO's doors for Georgia. In addition, once the EU initiates cooperation on issues such as political dialogue, trade, visa exemption and education, Serbia may well make headway on becoming a candidate member. On the other hand, it still remains a surprise what sort of gift will be presented to Greek Cyprus as an incentive for divorcing the KKTC.
If these scenarios don't take place, there may be alternative ones of war. Russia may recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia's independence. Following this decision by Moscow, Armenia may take action to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. This in turn might cause oil-rich İlham Aliyev to wage war on Armenia in order to make it into the history books and to remain president until his death. This scenario could subsequently cause Saakashvili to use force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to have the doors of NATO and EU opened more quickly. Consequently, 2008 will be a year when deadlocks over de facto independent European states will not be a solution.
HASAN KANBOLAT
[email protected] 12.02.2008
dont know whether to laugh or cry.....
