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2008 a Good year 4 the TRNC

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby utu » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:39 pm

Kikapu,

You think it wrong to overestimate a problem, fine. But it's just as foolish to underestimate it. For Russia to say what they said is basically telling Cyprus: "Realpolitik means we can't be relied on to be your allies". Russia has always said that they would back the Greek Cypriots, and indeed, a lot of hardware in the Cypriot military is Russian. But if Russia follows through on its pledge to Turkey if Turkey recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then so much for allies. And if you think that Greek Cypriot disgust wish Russia over such a move is going to change their minds...
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Postby Kikapu » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:48 pm

utu wrote:Kikapu,

You think it wrong to overestimate a problem, fine. But it's just as foolish to underestimate it. For Russia to say what they said is basically telling Cyprus: "Realpolitik means we can't be relied on to be your allies". Russia has always said that they would back the Greek Cypriots, and indeed, a lot of hardware in the Cypriot military is Russian. But if Russia follows through on its pledge to Turkey if Turkey recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then so much for allies. And if you think that Greek Cypriot disgust wish Russia over such a move is going to change their minds...


No utu, I'm not overestimating or underestimating anything. The Russian Ambassador had made it clear, that he was giving his own personal views and not that of his governments. Here is a sample.

I want to share with you my personal thought. Perhaps many circles including my ministry shall not accept this point of mine. According to me,
.................and so on.

http://www.famagusta-gazette.com/print_ ... etail=5041

Do you honestly believe that Turkey as a NATO member will recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia and not pay the price from the USA and the EU just to get the "trnc" recognised by Russia. Why would they do that.? And what makes you think Russia will recognize an illegal "trnc state" as prescribed by the UN.? They already had to make one justification for invading Georgia as a "humanitarian mission" to save lives of Russian nationals, but what excuse can they give as a UNSC member to support a illegal "trnc state".

Politicians are no different than whores, utu. If a whore tells you that she loves you after you have given some of your money to her for a good time, don't believe her. Same can be said about politicians also. :lol:
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Postby utu » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:05 am

Kikapu wrote:Politicians are no different than whores, utu. If a whore tells you that she loves you after you have given some of your money to her for a good time, don't believe her. Same can be said about politicians also. :lol:


Good point. Robin Williams said "Politicians are like diapers: they should be changed often, and for the same reason". Still, Russia driving a wedge between Turkey and the US, plus NATO would very much be in their strategic interest. Their recognizing the north under those circumstances would be a small price to pay. In addition, the UNSC resolutions declaring the north of Cyprus' Unilateral Declaration of Independence illegal does have one major loophole: The resolution CALLS UPON UN Member states not to recognize 'TRNC', which leaves it up to individual members. In short, the resolution is not mandatory upon the members of the UN, and if the upcoming negotiations fall through, then Turkey - facing continual EU opposition to its membership drive - may feel that it has nothing to lose in recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as sovereign countries in return for Russian recognition of the Turkish Cypriot north of Cyprus. Self-interest/Realpolitik is going to dictate thing here, and as has been quoted elsewhere on this forum, Tom Clancey wrote in one of his books, "Realpolitik is another way of saying "F##k your buddy!"
The Cypriot Foreign Ministry would be unwise to ignore these signals. They may be only the personal views of the Russian Ambassador to Ankara, but if there is no retraction or moderating statement from the Russian government, that silence is going to speak wonders. In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...
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Postby Oracle » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:15 am

utu wrote: ... In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...


What does that mean for you, utu?
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Postby utu » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:23 am

Oracle wrote:
utu wrote: ... In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...


What does that mean for you, utu?


My personal curiosity. Besides, all this is helping my doctoral thesis on foreign relations. I should have made that last statement clearer: the upcoming negotiations - should they fail - would hurt the south much more than the north, in my opinion. In that context, they must not fail, if Cyprus is ever to unify.
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Postby Oracle » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:42 am

utu wrote:
Oracle wrote:
utu wrote: ... In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...


What does that mean for you, utu?


My personal curiosity. Besides, all this is helping my doctoral thesis on foreign relations. I should have made that last statement clearer: the upcoming negotiations - should they fail - would hurt the south much more than the north, in my opinion. In that context, they must not fail, if Cyprus is ever to unify.


You shouldn't be making rush conclusions when writing a thesis. Be more objective :)

But don't worry if the talks fail; it would be because the Turks are not compromising anything again, and the GCs should not compromise any further ...

Eventually the EU will step in ....
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Postby utu » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:58 am

Oracle wrote:You shouldn't be making rush conclusions when writing a thesis. Be more objective :)

But don't worry if the talks fail; it would be because the Turks are not compromising anything again, and the GCs should not compromise any further ...

Eventually the EU will step in ....


My thesis is about regional realpolitik, and how it relates to Cyprus - as well as other countries in that region. In any case, objectivity is not exactly a common commodity when it comes to the Cyprus problem, I'm afraid. Its the main reason why thus far, the problem persists.

The thesis deals with the problem, and of several scenarios that would affect the local and international political situation should various scenarios come to pass. The comments by the Russian Ambassador in Turkey has presented a scenario, which I'm expanding upon. I'm not saying that it is probable, but it is possible, and should the scenario emerge, this is going to reverberate far beyond the island.
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Postby Big Al » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:56 am

Oracle wrote:
utu wrote:
Oracle wrote:
utu wrote: ... In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...


What does that mean for you, utu?


My personal curiosity. Besides, all this is helping my doctoral thesis on foreign relations. I should have made that last statement clearer: the upcoming negotiations - should they fail - would hurt the south much more than the north, in my opinion. In that context, they must not fail, if Cyprus is ever to unify.


You shouldn't be making rush conclusions when writing a thesis. Be more objective :)

But don't worry if the talks fail; it would be because the Turks are not compromising anything again, and the GCs should not compromise any further ...

Eventually the EU will step in ....


there you go again orcale, wishing for someone else to come in and fight your battles for you, firstly it was russia attacking nothern cyprus now its the EU going against the mean turks. Have you really exhausted all option that you have now resorted to wishful thinking. I have to hand it to you though, you're a patient slapper, you have been waiting for Russia and Europe to save you for over 35 years and you still have hope that "they are coming"...god bless your ignorant soul.
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Postby Big Al » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:57 am

Oracle wrote:
utu wrote:
Oracle wrote:
utu wrote: ... In THAT context, these upcoming negotitions better show some positive progress...


What does that mean for you, utu?


My personal curiosity. Besides, all this is helping my doctoral thesis on foreign relations. I should have made that last statement clearer: the upcoming negotiations - should they fail - would hurt the south much more than the north, in my opinion. In that context, they must not fail, if Cyprus is ever to unify.


You shouldn't be making rush conclusions when writing a thesis. Be more objective :)

But don't worry if the talks fail; it would be because the Turks are not compromising anything again, and the GCs should not compromise any further ...

Eventually the EU will step in ....


there you go again orcale, wishing for someone else to come in and fight your battles for you, firstly it was russia attacking nothern cyprus now its the EU going against the mean turks. Have you really exhausted all option that you have now resorted to wishful thinking. I have to hand it to you though, you're a patient slapper, you have been waiting for Russia and Europe to save you for over 35 years and you still have hope that "they are coming"...god bless your ignorant soul.
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Postby miltiades » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:57 am

What a stupid signature from one foreigner poking his nose in Cyprus's business ""

"""""Become a minority to your brothers or your enemy, which would you choose?? """
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