One more major effort, backed by the United Nations and the European Union, should be made in 2008 to end the deep-seated Cyprus problem, an international research group said, warning that non-resolution will carry negative consequences for all parties concerned.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report that developments since 2004, when a UN plan to reunite Cyprus failed after it was rejected by the Greek Cypriots in a referendum, "have rendered obsolete the belief that the relatively tranquil status quo can be preserved indefinitely."
According to the ICG, Cyprus' division, between a Turkish north and Greek south, may become permanent if a new effort fails to resolve the problem, and movement towards this has already intensified since 2004. "If no settlement is found, the process referred to locally as 'Taiwanization' will inevitably speed up, consolidating partition," the report, released yesterday, said.
The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), not recognized internationally, has been facing international isolation for more than three decades, and a proposed EU regulation to allow direct trade between the 27-nation bloc and the Turkish Cypriots remains unimplemented due to objections from EU member Greek Cyprus. But despite its non-recognition, the KKTC's international visibility and economic ties with other countries have increased drastically since 2004, due to an international sympathy that followed their "yes" vote for the UN reunification plan.
The ICG warned all parties will lose much if the tendency towards Taiwanization of the Turkish Cyprus and permanent division is consolidated: "Greek Cypriots will experience growing international toleration of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, loss of significant land that would have been returned by the north in any settlement, permanent stationing of Turkish troops, acceleration of a Turkish Cypriot building boom on Greek-owned properties, and the arrival on the island of more Turkish settlers. Turkish Cypriots will experience slower development; a tougher struggle against criminal elements taking advantage of their isolation; and indefinite suspension of many of their rights as EU citizens. Turkey will face a troubled atmosphere in a wide range of its dealings with the EU and in NATO, making it much harder for its leaders to pursue additional economic, legal and administrative reforms."
A settlement on the other hand, is likely benefit all: "For the Greek Cypriots, it would end lingering insecurity, give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region, and increase their service industry's value as an eastern Mediterranean hub. For Turkish Cypriots, it will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived. For the EU, the unresolved Cyprus problem now hampers its functioning on issues as diverse as cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and Chinese shoe imports. And for Turkey a settlement would overcome a major obstacle to its convergence with the EU."
The report said the upcoming presidential election in Greek Cyprus in February could provide an opportunity for solution and called on the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders to meet as soon as possible after the Greek Cypriot elections and signal to the UN a real commitment to restart talks.
Turkey told to open its ports
To facilitate a new and meaningful drive for solution, Turkey should also open its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus, followed quickly by action from the Greek Cypriots to remove obstacles they have created to the EU for direct trade with the Turkish Cypriots, the report said.
Turkey should also offer a clear commitment to full withdrawal of the Turkish troops in Cyprus pursuant to a settlement in the island. As for the Turkish Cypriots, the ICG recommended that they should freeze construction on Greek Cypriot-owned real estate in the island's north.
