Cyprus-Forum.com

[T_C]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

One more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute between ethnic Greeks and Turks on Cyprus and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island. All sides have much to gain from such a settlement. For the Greek Cypriots, it would end lingering insecurity, give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region, and increase their service industry’s value as an eastern Mediterranean hub. For Turkish Cypriots, it will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived. For the EU, the unresolved Cyprus problem now hampers its functioning on issues as diverse as cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and Chinese shoe imports. And for Turkey a settlement would overcome a major obstacle to its convergence with the EU.

If such an effort fails, the alternative is likely to be partition. Movement toward this has accelerated since 2004, when the UN’s Annan Plan, in an ironic reversal of long-held positions, was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but collapsed due to Greek Cypriot rejection, and the Greek Cypriot government entered the EU as the sole representative of the divided island. While there has been almost no bloodshed since the Turkish invasion of 1974 and violent conflict remains highly unlikely, the events of 2004 have rendered obsolete the comfortable belief that the relatively tranquil status quo can be preserved indefinitely.

If no settlement is found, the process referred to locally as “Taiwanisation” will inevitably speed up, consolidating partition. All sides need to focus much more sharply than they have to date on the downsides of this. Greek Cypriots will experience growing international toleration of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, loss of significant land that would have been returned by the north in any settlement, permanent stationing of Turkish troops, acceleration of a Turkish Cypriot building boom on Greek-owned properties, and the arrival on the island of more Turkish settlers. Turkish Cypriots will experience slower development; a tougher struggle against criminal elements taking advantage of their isolation; and indefinite suspension of many of their rights as EU citizens. Turkey will face a troubled atmosphere in a wide range of its dealings with the EU and in NATO, making it much harder for its leaders to pursue additional economic, legal and administrative reforms.

Any comprehensive reunification settlement will need to be based on the bizonal and bicommunal principles that have been long understood by the parties and are at the heart of past UN mediation efforts. Both sides can live with at least two thirds of the 9,500-page UN Annan plan, and solutions can readily be envisaged to the outstanding matters in dispute if only, as ever, the political will can be summoned to engage in serious negotiations. That will require a fresh start: since March 2006, when Crisis Group first reported on Cyprus, it has become apparent that the initially promising process based on the 8 July 2006 Agreement between the leaders of the island’s two communities is wholly stalemated.

The period following the Greek Cypriots’ February 2008 presidential election may offer both communities an opportunity to reestablish their will to engage in meaningful negotiations. While there is understandable scepticism now in many quarters as to whether any likely outcome of that election will be conducive to such negotiations, it is important that this issue not be pre-judged. In the weeks ahead maximum efforts should be made, internally and externally, to focus on the substantive matters at stake – the disadvantages of an accelerated move to partition and the advantages of a comprehensive reunification settlement – and the process by which negotiations might be advanced. This report is written in that spirit.

The ideal outcome would be for the leaders of both sides, as soon as possible after the election, to meet and signal to the UN a real commitment to restart talks, backing this up with unilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs). The UN should then send a mission to establish a framework for subsequent face-to-face talks between the leaders. At that point Turkey should unilaterally open its seaports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic, followed quickly by action from the Greek Cypriots to remove the obstacles they have created to EU direct trade with the Turkish Cypriots. Difficult as they no doubt will be to achieve, such measures, taken together, would create an atmosphere in which negotiations would have a realistic chance of succeeding.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To relaunch negotiations after the February 2008 Greek Cypriot presidential elections

1. Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders should jointly express their will to re-engage in UN-mediated talks on a comprehensive settlement, and the UN should build up its team in Cyprus and send a senior figure to conduct an assessment mission.

To establish an environment conducive to successful negotiations

2. The Greek Cypriot administration, as a unilateral CBM, should agree to EU implementation of its Direct Trade Regulation so as to allow Turkish Cypriot products to be sold directly to the EU.

3. The Turkish Cypriot administration, as a unilateral CBM, should freeze construction on Greek Cypriot-owned real estate.

4. Turkey, as a unilateral CBM, should implement its commitment in the 2005 Additional Protocol to the EU-Turkey Customs Union to open its seaports and airports for Greek Cypriot traffic, and its civilian and military leaders should firmly commit to the reunification of Cyprus in a bicommunal, bizonal federation and ultimate full withdrawal of Turkish troops pursuant to a settlement.

To maintain momentum in the negotiations

5. Both Cypriot administrations should lift impediments that prevent the EU from working freely in Turkish Cypriot-administered areas; the Greek Cypriots should pro-actively discourage discrimination against Turkish Cypriot products and advertising in Greek Cypriot media and commerce and engage pragmatically with Turkish Cypriot police, public health authorities, and other agencies dealing with day-to-day affairs.

6. The Turkish Cypriot administration should end harassment of merchants seeking to export through Greek Cypriot ports and allow EU-financed bicommunal projects to proceed, especially to encourage joint ventures based on common interests with the Greek Cypriot private sector and a renewal of civil society meetings.

7. The UN and EU should develop and deepen collaboration on intercommunal meetings, in particular to increase opportunity for debate on the economic, social and political benefits of reunification.

8. Turkey should:

(a) explore all ways to allay Greek Cypriot fears, including avoiding military exercises near the Green Line and military overflights of internationally recognised Greek or Greek Cypriot airspace;

(b) offer as soon as there is significant negotiating progress to accept international monitoring of its troop strength on the island; and

(c) encourage Turkish officials, business people and intellectuals to engage with Greek Cypriots to build trust in support of the negotiations.

9. Greece should explain the potential dangers of non-resolution of the Cyprus problem to all European member states in preparation for comprehensive talks in 2008 and encourage Greek Cypriots to emulate its own détente with Ankara since 1999.

10. EU institutions and member states should strongly support renewal of Cyprus talks in 2008, follow them closely so as to be ready to react to a threatened breakdown, explain to publics and policy elites in Europe how the Cyprus problem injures the common foreign and security policy, and encourage Russia to use its influence on the island to encourage a settlement.

11. The U.S. should work with European capitals and with other Security Council members to highlight the dangers of non-resolution of the Cyprus problem.

Nicosia/Istanbul/Brussels, 10 January 2008


http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5255&l=1


FULL REPORT!!

[Kikapu]

The above post has all the "fingerprints" of someone with an one sided biased opinion, wouldn't you say T_C.??

I'm not going to say which side, so not to get accused of not being "fair", right T_C.!!

It's not any official government report, is it T_C.??

[Nikitas]

"8. Turkey should:

(a) explore all ways to allay Greek Cypriot fears, including avoiding military exercises near the Green Line and military overflights of internationally recognised Greek or Greek Cypriot airspace; "

In other words it is doing so now, and those of us who live in Greece listen and read of daily violations of Greek FIR, air space and flights over land (in which case there is NO DOUBT of a violation). We also pay a lot of taxes since every violation has to be challenged by at least two jets and these suckers cost 50 000 dollars an hour to run.

How to interpret these violations? As the show of goodwill by a neighbor who is pursuing a European policy? As something else? Hmmm tough question.

[halil]

The above post has all the "fingerprints" of someone with an one sided biased opinion, wouldn't you say T_C.??

I'm not going to say which side, so not to get accused of not being "fair", right T_C.!!

It's not any official government report, is it T_C.??

you see KİKAPU anythink doesn't suit your ideas.İt is one sided.The things you keep pumping is not one sided.

[T_C]

Exactly Halil, Kikapu has proved my point yet again...I very much doubt he's capable of understanding what I meant anyways...and he should read the WHOLE report since it's written quite professionally with footnotes and everything before coming to conclusions.

In any case as I've already said a thousand times, if it's GCs asking for way too much it doesn't suit him to say anything, even when it has to do with our rights he can't bring himself to open his mouth but when it comes to TCs effecting GCs rights even if it's a "non government report" as he claimed above, he's the 1st to go off on one, telling us about "prostitutes" and "pig farms"... (someone really ought to tell him where the pig farms really are... )

I don't understand how a "TC" can sit there and not say anything when a GC is talking about taking from us the rights that were already AGREED AND SIGNED, with the excuse of making things more "democratic". Not only is that ETHICALLY wrong it's an abuse of democracy since making things more "democratic" requires the majority (GC government) to vote away a minorities rights...how else would people who think along the same lines as Piratis achieve their goal? Because TCs certainly wouldn't give up their rights. They'd have to be TAKEN from us!!! And he (a TC) can sit there and NEVER say NOTHING? But as soon as it's GCs rights in question he jumps to defend them by insulting his own people and ridiculing their fears??!?

As long as Kikapu includes us in his peace plans (which I WOULD accept btw) he thinks it's ok to ignore hardliner GCs but ROAST TCs at any given chance....it's BLATANT double standards and he doesn't even see it!

Only someone who IS a GC would fail to see how sinister some hardliner GCs "plans" are...why does he just concentrate on our lot?

[halil]

T_C,
we have a saying '' bazıları görmek için at gözlüğü ister ''
report is simple as this.
An international think tank yesterday called for more UN involvement in any new initiative to be taken on the Cyprus Problem.
The report titled “Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition” by the International Crisis Group (ICG) said that both sides on the island should recognize that 2008 may be the last chance to act on an UN-mediated basis.
Any comprehensive reunification settlement will need to be based on the bizonal and bicommunal principles that have been long understood by the parties and are at the heart of past UN mediation efforts, the report said.
The report states that one more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute on the island between the two sides and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island.

Stating that all sides have much to gain from such a settlement, the report said For the Greek Cypriots; it would end lingering insecurity for Greek Cypriots and give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region.

For Turkish Cypriots, the report stated that a solution will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived of.

The report warned that failures of such efforts will most likely result in permanent partition, movement towards which it stated, had accelerated since 2004, when the UN sponsored Annan Plan, in an ironic reversal of long-held positions, was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but collapsed due to Greek Cypriot rejection.

Other threats include the “Taiwanisation” of North Cyprus which will inevitably speed up, consolidating partition, the report said.
The crisis group also stated that the period following the Greek Cypriots’ February 2008 presidential election may offer both sides an opportunity to reestablish their will to engage in meaningful negotiations.

As for recommendations, the report states that the ideal outcome would be for the leaders of both sides, as soon as possible after the election, to meet and signal to the UN a real commitment to restart talks, backing this up with unilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs).

The Crisis group recommended that the UN should then send a mission to establish a framework for subsequent face-to-face talks between the leaders and that at that point Turkey should unilaterally open its seaports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic, followed quickly by action from the Greek Cypriots to remove the obstacles they have created to EU direct trade with the Turkish Cypriot Side.

[Pyrpolizer]

I am sick and tired of you guys always attacking Kikapu to the point of making him afraid to tell his opinion openely. Of course the report is TOTALLY BIASED. It starts from calling the Republic of Cyprus "GC administration" which is clearly a Turkish invented term, all the substantial recommendations it makes-I mean those that will hacve a real impact- are those requiring the GCs to give 100 to take back 1, upto the point of even recognising the pseudo's administrative structure and start copperating with them. After all it calls it TC administration, which is totally equal to the GC administration. Ain't that right?

You guys are PATHETIC.
You are rejecting the few guys among you that are trying to look matters in an objective way. Kikapu is trying to open YOUR eyes not the eyes of the GCs. There are some BLIND Gcs like some of you in this forum.The fact that Kikapu never attacked Piratis ideas doesn't mean he agrees with him. I almost never discuss with Piratis does that mean I agree with him????

So stop this nonsense of trying to make a traitor of one of you. You are becoming more ridiculous than those GCs who were labeling Bananiot a traitor. Each one has his own ideas concentrate on his ideas not on who he is.

To mke a long story short Kikapu is right the report is biased, is pro Turkish, and I already told you why. Convince m it is not so. Convince me Kikapu was not right when he said the same thing.

Convince me he was not right in the other topic when he said "the one who tells the truth is kicked out from 9 villages."

[Pyrpolizer]

Has anybody noticed the "Nicosia, Istanbul, Brussels" footnote? I am almost certain the first is just a tranlation of Lefkoshia, in other words the occupied part in the North. All references to GC opinions in other footnetes come exclussively from Anan Plan yes voters. Where the hell is the opinion of the rest of the GCs who after all are the majority?? And then you tell me it's not biased????

BIASED like hell it is!!!

[Viewpoint]

I am sick and tired of you guys always attacking Kikapu to the point of making him afraid to tell his opinion openely. Of course the report is TOTALLY BIASED. It starts from calling the Republic of Cyprus "GC administration" which is clearly a Turkish invented term, all the substantial recommendations it makes-I mean those that will hacve a real impact- are those requiring the GCs to give 100 to take back 1, upto the point of even recognising the pseudo's administrative structure and start copperating with them. After all it calls it TC administration, which is totally equal to the GC administration. Ain't that right?

You guys are PATHETIC.
You are rejecting the few guys among you that are trying to look matters in an objective way. Kikapu is trying to open YOUR eyes not the eyes of the GCs. There are some BLIND Gcs like some of you in this forum.The fact that Kikapu never attacked Piratis ideas doesn't mean he agrees with him. I almost never discuss with Piratis does that mean I agree with him????

So stop this nonsense of trying to make a traitor of one of you. You are becoming more ridiculous than those GCs who were labeling Bananiot a traitor. Each one has his own ideas concentrate on his ideas not on who he is.

To mke a long story short Kikapu is right the report is biased, is pro Turkish, and I already told you why. Convince m it is not so. Convince me Kikapu was not right when he said the same thing.

Convince me he was not right in the other topic when he said "the one who tells the truth is kicked out from 9 villages."

You are right Kikapu is a genuine and true reflection of the GC viewpoint, no one is disputing this fact but he is on the other side of the fence to us TCs which makes him one of you, on your team not ours, comprendo?.

Isnt the administration in the south GC? whats so made up about that?

[DT.]

I am sick and tired of you guys always attacking Kikapu to the point of making him afraid to tell his opinion openely. Of course the report is TOTALLY BIASED. It starts from calling the Republic of Cyprus "GC administration" which is clearly a Turkish invented term, all the substantial recommendations it makes-I mean those that will hacve a real impact- are those requiring the GCs to give 100 to take back 1, upto the point of even recognising the pseudo's administrative structure and start copperating with them. After all it calls it TC administration, which is totally equal to the GC administration. Ain't that right?

You guys are PATHETIC.
You are rejecting the few guys among you that are trying to look matters in an objective way. Kikapu is trying to open YOUR eyes not the eyes of the GCs. There are some BLIND Gcs like some of you in this forum.The fact that Kikapu never attacked Piratis ideas doesn't mean he agrees with him. I almost never discuss with Piratis does that mean I agree with him????

So stop this nonsense of trying to make a traitor of one of you. You are becoming more ridiculous than those GCs who were labeling Bananiot a traitor. Each one has his own ideas concentrate on his ideas not on who he is.

To mke a long story short Kikapu is right the report is biased, is pro Turkish, and I already told you why. Convince m it is not so. Convince me Kikapu was not right when he said the same thing.

Convince me he was not right in the other topic when he said "the one who tells the truth is kicked out from 9 villages."

You are right Kikapu is a genuine and true reflection of the GC viewpoint, no one is disputing this fact but he is on the other side of the fence to us TCs which makes him one of you, on your team not ours, comprendo?.

Isnt the administration in the south GC? whats so made up about that?

Administration in the south is called Government of Cyprus. Look at the passports of a few of your friends it clearly says Republic of Cyprus.