Cyprus-Forum.com

[CopperLine]

Determining the total numbers of any population is a technically difficult exercise. Insofar as the RoC has not undertaken any population census in the north (for obvious reasons), by definition the RoC and Piratis have no idea what that population number is nor how it is composed.

The consequence of this is that the effective administration of the north, whether you call that TRNC or Turkey, have conducted population censuses, the latest being that of 2006.

The PRIO report, of which I have a copy in front of me, uses data from a number of different sources and is a model of how one can try to test the reliability of population data through using different techniques and methods. The PRIO report also uses census data produced by RoC and by its central governmental statistical agency. It also uses UN, EU an dother international organisations material (most of which tends to come from national authorities anyway)

Unless Piratis has conducted other surveys or population censuses - in which case let him share those with us and PRIO - then my money is with PRIO's report as being the most reliable currently on offer. That does not mean that the PRIO report is not without problems, but it does mean that we can test the robustness of PRIO data and conclusions. All those people, including on other threads now, who just say 'well I think the population is X' or 'I think there are Y thousand illegals' are simply making things up.

A separate but related question is how one classifies different parts of a population into, for example, immigrant, temporary resident, resident, etc. How one classifies clearly has a political component to it and we have to always be wary or cautious about classifications. Having said that, there are UN classification and reporting systems which reporting agencies - for example national statistical authorities - are requested/required to comply with. This means that to a great extent, with relatively minor margins of error, population data can be meaningfully compared across the world. The problems of classification which north Cyprus or RoC are dealing with are not peculiar to these places and it is mistaken to reduce it to a question of propaganda or crude anti-politics. For example, who one includes in the category 'temporary worker' or 'resident' is keenly debated by tax authorities, immigration authorities, police, education and trade unions and so on across the world. TRNC and RoC are no exception.

[Piratis]

CopperLine, read the report from the Council of Europe that checks all sources, not the pro-Turk PRIO which uses the word settlers in quotes (while it doesn't use quotes for the "trnc").

http://assembly.coe.int/Documents/Worki ... OC9799.htm

[CopperLine]

Piratis,
Did you actually read where the sources of the CoE assembly report (which is therefore not a CoE official report) ? The sources are the same as those used by PRIO, except that the range of sources that PRIO used was more broadly based. Thus both CoE Assembly and PRIO use RoC and TRNC census data. Not only does PRIO use more up to date data, but it does not rely on guesswork that the CoE Assembly report turns t. For example, this is what the CoE Assembly report says : 'Calculated by applying the natural increase to the population at the end of the previous year.' It also titles its tables as 'estimates' in other words NOT census data.

On the orgin of 'settlers' the CoE gives as its source 'The Government of Cyprus' and yet as the rappprteur is at pains to point (as is the govt of Cyprus), they do not have access nor can generate their own census data or other population data from the north, apart from making rough estimates. So either they guess (guessing my friend is a surreal political game) or ... they use TRNC-generated data.

So I repeat the PRIO report is not Turkey/TRNC biased. It is using a range of data, wider than that used by RoC or CoE Assembly, has tried to triangulate that data, and has published more recent data than most other sources.

In any case, what actually is your problem with this report other than its use or non-use of quotation marks ?!! Do you think it over-states or under-states the number of Turkish permanent residents ? Which is better for the north's argument with RoC, an under- or an over-statement ? It is not at all politically clear which is better ? And are you saying that the census data is politically manipulated in order to fit a particular political argument ? What would that be then ?

It really does sound as if you've started off with the presumption that PRIO is biased against RoC (though you don't give any credible evidence of this) and then have forced yourself to conclude that their population figures must be similarly biased.

[Piratis]

CopperLine, PRIO didn't make any research. They just took the numbers that the pseudo state gave them and accepted them as they are.

According to you making a research is just taking the fake numbers that your pseudo state gives? If anybody trusted what your pseudo state is saying then what would be the point to make an independent research in the first place?

On the other had the CoE report examined all sources, made its own independent analysis to come to their conclusions.

[CopperLine]

Piratis,
Your reply is nonsense.

First PRIO, like CoE Assembly rapporteur, used data that had been generated by others, TRNC authorities as well as RoC authorities, and others. Thus, for example, PRIO used data produced by Cyprus Government Statistical Service and data produced by TRNC State Planning Department.

Second, PRIO used other survey data and other proxy data. Thus, for example, PRIO looked at data on place of birth.

Third, PRIO then evaluated that data, triangulating with other sources of data.



You protest too much :

They just took the numbers that the pseudo state gave them and accepted them as they are.

PRIO subjected TRNC data to comparisons from other sources, checking for the robustness of reliablity of the data. You may or may not agree with their conclusion, you may or may not agree with their test, but what they did not do is simply 'accept them as they are.' Contrast this with the RoC data set for the north which is not based on census data.

On what basis do you some to the conclusion that the population data is 'fake' other than your own bigotry ? To mnkae such a categorical claim surley you would need to know how the data was generated, collected, classified and so on. So far the limit of your criticism has been the use of 'quotation marks.'

So what you are effectively saying is that you prefer population information produced by Greek Cypriot guesswork rather than population data produced by a Turkish Cypriot census. You are, of course, at liberty to express such an absurd and transparently bigoted preference. You make an implicit admission that when it comes to population data your saying go to hell to population science and let prejudice be king.

[Piratis]

You prefer the data produced by some pseudo state which some private organization called "PRIO" adopts, instead of the report by the Council of Europe. I don't.

Your pseudo state is trying to hide the amount of illegal settlers who where brought illegally in the occupied parts of our country against the Geneva convention in order to alter the democraphics of our island. In fact for the pseudo state there is not even such thing as illegal Settlers. For them they are all just "trnc citizens", so there is no chance that they would give out the real numbers as that would mean admitting the magnitude of their crime.

[observer]

What I have found interesting about this exchange is that not a single TC has come forward to back up or attempt to justify Ata Atun's numbers which, as I indicated when I started this thread, I consider about as reliable as the figures issued by the GC papers and government. This shows a healthy attitude towards journalistic exaggeration, which all journalists do to make a point or sell newspapers.

On the other hand, GCs seem to place total faith in the numbers put out by their government and journalists, despite simple observation and independent analysis indicating that the numbers quoted are enormous exaggerations. I can't improve on CopperLine's analysis.

If ever there was a case of "I've made up my mind, don't interrupt me with the facts" it is being shown by the GCs in this thread.

[CopperLine]

Piratis,
I take it that you prefer the CoE Assembly report not because its figures are inaccurate/accurate but because it comes to a conclusion that confirms your prejudices.

Nothing that you've written even hints that you are bothered by the accuracy or reliability of the methods of data collection.

A couple of things still need correcting though : The CoE Assembly report that you cite is not an official statement or endorsement by the Council of Europe. It is, as its name should make it clear, a report to the Assembly. That makes it a quite different beast to the one you try and make it out to be. No doubt you'll have read the formal objection from fellow Assembly members to that report.

Second, for it to make any sense at all when you write that 'Your pseudo state is trying to hide the amount of illegal settlers who ...' entails that you, Piratis, have a different and more authoritative set of figures (otherwise how could you know the TRNC figures were 'hiding' anything ?) But you fail to show any other figures let alone 'more authoritative'. All you point to is the CoE Assembly cited figures, which as we've already established come from RoC which, again as we've already established, hasn't got any of its own data for northern Cyprus.

Third, you say that 'For them they are all just "trnc citizens"...' No they are not. The report does not say this. Read the report. In fact it goes to some effort to account for non-citizens resident (temporary or otherwise) in north Cyprus.

Fourth, at least read this from the new report on population:

'This report, then, suggests a middle road to make international review possible. The middle road recommended by this report is through the political parties in the north, which, unlike the Turkish Cypriot government, are recognised as legitimate political entities by the Republic [of Cyprus] and the international community....With the aide of experts in demography appointed by the Council of Europe or another international organisation, it would be possible to identify other sources of information that might complement or supplement the census result, as this study attempts to do so.'

Now Piratis those are hardly the words of an organisation trying to hide anything or pull the wool over your eyes.

[Piratis]

observer, TCs stick to the official propaganda of Turkey and the pseudo state. They did not attempt to justify what Ata Atun wrote simply because his nonsense and lies where obvious even to people without a good knowledge of the Cyprus issue and history, which are the people your propaganda targets.

I gave you a report which is made by the Council of Europe, not by the Cyprus government or a Cypriot journalist. Yet you reject it because it doesn't match your official propaganda numbers. Instead you prefer the report by some private institution simply because it adopts not only your numbers but even your terminology.

[observer]

If CopperLine is correct, your Council of Europe report is actually a GC report given by the GCs to the Council of Europe and not endorsed by them.

Don't you get just a small smell that it might not be entirely true - unless you believe that the GC government can not lie (headed by Papadopoulos!!!!!!!!)