I had a couple more points I'd like to raise from some of the comments you made. Hope you don't mind if I select these rather than going through everything again which will make this a tediously long post.
A. I don’t mind at all. I find all these little boxes within boxes confusing and tend to skip over them anyway.
Q. So is there a lot of foreign investment in the north now? And if the situation is changing rapidly does this mean there is less requirement for negotiation to bring about a political settlement?
A. It would be wrong to exaggerate the amount of overseas investment in TRNC, but as the starting point was virtually nil, the amount now coming in is significant in local terms. Much of it is going into construction, including the building of new hotels and upgrading of old hotels and facilities. From these sources money trickles out to furniture suppliers, sellers of white goods and the like, into the pockets of employees, and then to retailers.
Often, who is doing the initial investing is unclear. Opponents of the TRNC will immediatly point to money laundering and Turkish gangsters. That some comes from these sources is probably true, although a friend in the banking industry tells me that the amount of money laundered through TRNC is quite small compared with most countries since we are not on the international electronic banking circuit (swift-something). I think that more comes from businessmen who would prefer to be discrete about their dealings in TRNC so that their businesses elsewhere are not affected by the anti-TRNC lobby. There are said to be a number of Greek and GC investors working through front men, although this is impossible to prove – at least for an ordinary citizen.
I don’t think that the improvement in the standard of living lessens the feeling that there should be a political settlement. I don’t even think that the improvement in the standard of living makes it more difficult. What does make it more difficult is the fact that formerly empty land now has houses, shops etc. built on it.
Q. Interesting to read your take on the history and more recent controls on Turkish mainlanders settling in Cyprus. I found some more information within a report entitled 'Beyond Numbers: An Inquiry into the Political Integration of the Turkish 'Settlers' in Northern Cyprus' commissioned by the International Peace Institute, Oslo in 2005. (Maybe this has already been discussed on the forum?).
http://www.prio.no/files/manual-import/ ... educed.pdf
It is a long report, but the summary indicates 'the electoral lists examined for this report indicate that voters originating from mainland Turkey constitute no more than 20–25% of the total electorate in northern Cyprus' which gives some idea of the numbers and influence of these 'settlers' which I hadn't known before.
A. I shall read the report with interest. The numbers you indicate are prety well what I would think, and if you take into account that a certain amount of the 20-25% are in Northern Cyprus because of marriage or retirement (it is interesting that both British and Turkish soldiers who have worked in Cyprus seem to like retiring here) the number of Turkish economic immigrants (settlers) is significant, but nowhere near the ridiculous numbers quoted by the GC government. Simple observation shows those numbers to be untrue.
Q. This is an interesting angle to consider - you fear an economic apartheid should there be a political settlement and lifting of the embargoes?
A. It has happened in the past, is happening now, and I see no indication that it won’t happen in the future.
Q. I'm presuming you are in favour of the BBF situation that Nikitas has been talking me through on another thread. I've been thinking about this suggested solution, and initially didn't think it seemed workable, but I'm starting to see some sense in it. Perversely enough, my reasoning is based on the political situation in the UK which is going in exactly the opposite direction, namely the devolution of government to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland. It is really looking now as though the devolved government in Scotland at least, could lead to full independence, if not in 10 years time, then certainly within the next 25-50 years. Scotland would be a fully fledged independent state within the EU. So there we have a situation of political integration devolving due to the wishes of the people. If the BBF worked in Cyprus, although there would be two 'governments' to begin with, there would be more and more integration of the communities, both communities are going to become wealthy (always impressed with the standard of living in the part of Cyprus I visit), and that prosperity may be more beguiling than political or cultural disharmony and eventually lead to a single government. Or is that naive? I am no political animal, just putting forward a simple prediction as to what might happen.
A. I agree, up to a point. Just as there has never been full integration in UK (Scotland and Northern Ireland have always had their own legal systems that operate differently in some ways), in the same way I see no need for full integration in Cyprus. I do think that there are mutual benefits in cooperating in some areas. Once the process gets underway, it will probably find its own level in time.
As an aside, should Nikitas be reading this, I enjoy reading your posts, finding them logical and well argued, even if I do not always find myself in agreement with you.
Q. (TRNC Independence under EU mandate) I think the sticking point will be 'grant the TRNC independence', even though you qualify this by putting it under a EU mandate. I'm sure that to GCs the presence of the Turkish army is unacceptable, as I understand it this was one of the main reasons for rejection of the Annan proposal.
A. I think that you are right, but what I had in mind was a situation leading to something like that in the island of Ireland, where joint membership of the EU, the commonality of so many laws and regulations, and the obvious benefits of cooperation rather than opposition, did much to end the violence there.