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[fanourıo]

From today's INDEPENDENT
Kosovo: A declaration of independence - or war?
Balkans on the brink over future of Kosovo
By Daniel McLaughlin in Mitrovica
Published: 07 December 2007
In the offices of the newly elected Kosovo government in Pristina a momentous declaration is being prepared. A new state is about to be born on Europe's borders.

The historic declaration of Kosovo's independence will be contained in a "We the People" speech delivered to the Serbian province's mainly ethnic Albanian majority who have yearned for this moment since the departure of Slobodan Milosevic's forces in 1999. The declaration could either lead to war or a peaceful route to future EU membership for both Kosovo and Serbia. And the question for Britain is: Will Kosovo prove to be a successful example of the Blair doctrine of humanitarian intervention?

Here in the northern region where the Serb minority is concentrated, fears are growing that thousands of Serbs may flee Kosovo when the UN-administered province declares independence as early as next week, potentially sparking a humanitarian and security crisis, destabilising Europe's most volatile regions, and provoking another Balkans war. Serb families are already packing their bags.

Kosovo's leaders have vowed to proclaim sovereignty sometime after Monday, the deadline for international envoys to report to the United Nations on a final round of talks that failed to find even a glimmer of compromise between Kosovo and Belgrade.

Washington and Brussels agree with Kosovo that further negotiations are pointless, and support independence for the 90-per cent Albanian region under the supervision of a European Union mission and the watchful eye of some 16,000 Nato peacekeepers.

But Russia supports Serbia's refusal to offer anything more than broad autonomy to the province of two million, and both nations warn that recognising a unilateral declaration of independence from Kosovo would unsettle the Balkans and embolden separatist movements everywhere. The task for the US and Europe will be to manage the independence declaration so that it is met with international recognition – and not gunfire.

While Kosovar and Serb leaders have opposed the use of force to resolve their dispute, threats from small Albanian and Serb paramilitary groups to defend their ethnic kin have stoked fears of renewed violence in a region that is still recovering from a 1998-99 war.

"Among Serbs there is fear, uncertainty and a huge lack of trust towards Albanians," said Biljana Todorovic, who lives among her fellow Serbs in northern Mitrovica, across the Ibar river from the entirely Albanian southern half of town. "Everybody expects violence, because it is the one constant here."

A declaration of independence by Kosovo's President or Prime Minister is expected to be followed by a similar announcement from Serb leaders in northern Kosovo. "You can be sure of that. It will happen the very same day or the next day," said Oliver Ivanovic, a moderate Serb politician in northern Kosovo.

"Belgrade won't openly support it but will do so indirectly. A sense of hopelessness among Serbs elsewhere in Kosovo will prompt at least 10,000 of them to abandon their villages. How could they stay? They don't trust the Albanians who killed us or the Western powers who bombed us. All Serbs in Kosovo are worried and in some way prepared to leave."

Milos Drazevic, a young Serb musician living in Mitrovica, feared a repeat of the ethnic riots in 2004 that killed 19 people. "In northern Mitrovica, I'd say 99 per cent of Serbs have a bag packed or at least documents ready in case they have to flee. Here we can easily get to Serbia, but it's tougher in the enclaves, where they could be stopped from leaving by a blockade on a single road."

Kosovo's leaders fear Belgrade will encourage Serbs to leave their ancient villages and head north, creating a grim spectacle to blight the first days of their independent state.

"Things are going to get worse here before they get better," admitted Dukagjin Gorani, a chief adviser to Kosovo's Prime Minister-elect, Hashim Thaci.

In a foretaste of the struggle to come, an adviser to the Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica was slapped down yesterday by the EU mediator on Kosovo for saying that "war is a legal tool", if the will of the UN Security Council is not respected.

The mediator, Wolfgang Ischinger of Germany, had earlier highlighted a promise by the leaders in Belgrade and Pristina to refrain from violence after next Monday. Mr Kostunica's party spokesman said that the statement by Aleksandar Simic, who said Serbia "is very determined to use all means in defending its interests", was theoretical and had been taken out of context.

The road to independence

* Today: Nato meeting will discuss continuing Kosovo international force.

* Monday: Deadline for international mediators to submit report to UN secretary general who hands it to the security council. Declaration of Kosovo independence could come at any time after Monday, although Hashim Thaci, set to become Kosovo's Prime Minister, has promised to do so in consultation with US and Europe.

* 14 December: EU summit. Kosovo expects a signal from the EU on prospects for internationally-supervised independence.

* 19 December: UN security council discusses Kosovo, with Russia remaining opposed to independence.

* January: Most likely time of independence declaration.

[Piratis]

I think it is an example for Kurds to follow in Turkey.

[greek.god]

Too bad Cyprus does not support Kosovo's independence. Cyprus fears a declaration of Kosovar independence will serve as a model for the "TRNC".

Too bad they don't understand the difference.

[DT.]

One thng the "TRNC does not understand is that should they gain independence and join the EU before Turkey then the following will happen.


The "trnc" will have to follow EU regulation regarding immigration from Turkey thus blocking all further influx of Anatolian/Turkish/3-legged Albanian settlers.
Seeing as both the ROC and the "trnc" would both be membes of the EU then all restrictions regarding movement/settlemen ofGC's in the north will have to be lifted. COnstitutional amendments regarding the possibility of electing and voting for GC's and any other EU members will need to be made.

Which means: over a 5 year timespan the GC's could become the majority in the north again, elect a GC leader and request Enosis with the ROC....

[zan]

One thng the "TRNC does not understand is that should they gain independence and join the EU before Turkey then the following will happen.


The "trnc" will have to follow EU regulation regarding immigration from Turkey thus blocking all further influx of Anatolian/Turkish/3-legged Albanian settlers.
Seeing as both the ROC and the "trnc" would both be membes of the EU then all restrictions regarding movement/settlemen ofGC's in the north will have to be lifted. COnstitutional amendments regarding the possibility of electing and voting for GC's and any other EU members will need to be made.

Which means: over a 5 year timespan the GC's could become the majority in the north again, elect a GC leader and request Enosis with the ROC....

All under TC administration.......Thank you...We accept the challenge...

[Tim Drayton]

One thng the "TRNC does not understand is that should they gain independence and join the EU before Turkey then the following will happen.


The "trnc" will have to follow EU regulation regarding immigration from Turkey thus blocking all further influx of Anatolian/Turkish/3-legged Albanian settlers.
Seeing as both the ROC and the "trnc" would both be membes of the EU then all restrictions regarding movement/settlemen ofGC's in the north will have to be lifted. COnstitutional amendments regarding the possibility of electing and voting for GC's and any other EU members will need to be made.

Which means: over a 5 year timespan the GC's could become the majority in the north again, elect a GC leader and request Enosis with the ROC....

Not 100% so. EU nationals are entitled to vote in municipal and European parliament elections if resident in another member state, but not in that country's national elections. Otherwise, I think the point you make is valid. If there were two independent states which were both EU members on such a small island, this would result pretty much in de-facto reunification, especially in economic terms. However, the official TRNC thesis is that it was the Greek Cypriot administration which joined the EU rather than the whole of Cyprus. Turkey is well aware of the scenario you have outlined and, as the puppet master in the north of Cyprus, will not let it happen. Rauf Denktash's advisor Mümtaz Soysal (a mainland Turkish politician), adressing Turkish Cypriot community leaders in London in 1996, starkly informed them that they could forget the idea that Turkish Cypriots would become EU members before Turkey did, because Turkey would never permit this. (Toplum Postası 27 June 1996)

[Nikitas]

Everyone conveniently forget that in Kosovo it is the will of the MAJORITY population which is being recognised. If you draw an analogy with Cyprus then the Kosovars role is that of the GCs not the TCs.

But even if you take the common view that Kosovo is like the TRNC, then the deal recognises specifically the rights of the minorities living there and all their civil and property rights. Again to draw an analogy, if TRNC wants to be a Kosovo it will have to recognise the equivalent rights of the GCs and others who own property in the north and grant them full civil rights. Capische everyone?

[Nikitas]

"Rauf Denktash's advisor Mümtaz Soysal (a mainland Turkish politician), adressing Turkish Cypriot community leaders in London in 1996, starkly informed them that they could forget the idea that Turkish Cypriots would become EU members before Turkey did, because Turkey would never permit this. (Toplum Postası 27 June 1996)"

Sounds like a death grip rather than a motherly embrace! Turkey would never "permit this", and then people here like Zan and VP try to portray the north as an "independent" country. They have been, they are and always will be under Turkey's thumb and no one can get them out of it but themselves. If they want to, that is.

[Nikitas]

"However, the official TRNC thesis is that it was the Greek Cypriot administration which joined the EU rather than the whole of Cyprus."

This raises some interesting questions re the status of the TRNC when it receives grants and financial aid from the EU. Does it receive it as a third country? As part of a member state? If and when the north decideds to accept EU membership will it have to undergo a process of accession as a new member state or will it ride (yet again) piggy back on the RoC membership and get in without further formalities and the testing entry process?

If there is Taiwanisation will it be as a non member state that it will be granted de facto recogniton of its statehood or will they treat it as a member state of the EU. But how can they do that when the TCs say they never entered the EU in the first place? Can any part of this process abolish individual GC property rights in the north and still pretend to be an EU solution?

[Viewpoint]

"Rauf Denktash's advisor Mümtaz Soysal (a mainland Turkish politician), adressing Turkish Cypriot community leaders in London in 1996, starkly informed them that they could forget the idea that Turkish Cypriots would become EU members before Turkey did, because Turkey would never permit this. (Toplum Postası 27 June 1996)"

Sounds like a death grip rather than a motherly embrace! Turkey would never "permit this", and then people here like Zan and VP try to portray the north as an "independent" country. They have been, they are and always will be under Turkey's thumb and no one can get them out of it but themselves. If they want to, that is.

So Nikatis whats you point? you know we have a very strong relationship with Turkey as these people not only saved our lives but also support us both financially and morally, why do you hate this so much, we never had this relationship with GCs and appears we never will.