Cyprus-Forum.com

[dinos]

...BTW, how long 'till Chrysler goes bust, now that Bob "I Destroyed Home Depot And All I Got Is $200M" Nardelli is at the helm?

HAHAHAHAHA!!!! When you're good, you're good:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/c ... teid=yhoof

[Johnson&Johnson]

ella leventi

sorry for my late response - had a crazy week, no time to log in or even readc the news

"Someone asked me, 'Are we bankrupt?' " Chrysler chief Robert Nardelli told staff earlier this month, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. "Technically, no. Operationally, yes."

gotta love the doublespeak of the yanks

im thinking, hummer and pad in florida circa 2010

by the way, nice avatar. i love those ads for geico, really clever

[dinos]

Ella - Happy 2008! For a little fun, I'm going to put myself on record with some predictions for this year.

- EUR/USD - fair value at 1.4700. Has upside potential to 1.5340, but slowing growth and crimped profits in Europe will limit its sustainable upside to around 1.51. On the bright side, there's still plenty of money to be made on the Euro.

- Crude oil to rise to $140/bbl. Publicly traded oil companies, whose valuations have not reflected even the current price for oil, will rise.

- Natural gas will rise as well as it is now dramatically undervalued compared to crude.

- US housing data are looking increasingly grim (as in the UK, right?). Prices have fallen at a faster rate than they have in years and this will begin to affect personal credit. It's worth noting the the loss of construction jobs has begun to work its way into NFP numbers, which is likely the beginning of some employment issues here. Politicians and right-wing pundits rush to slap as much lipstick on the recession pig as they can.

In any case, a few high-profile bankruptcies should be expected (Countrywide, Hovnanian, for example) this year. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Northern Rock.

- Continued opportunities in EEMEA, especially for infrastructure companies.

- Financial companies will not recover this year. If billions of dollars of infusions from foreign governments / investment companies can't resuscitate them, they're toast for now. Either way, more money will come from the middle east into these companies. The large ones, like Citigroup, will be able to pay a nice dividend to keep them off their boards. The smaller ones will not and will be taken over. I'm therefore expecting to see M&A activity in financials to increase this year.

- Google will double this year (677 to 1300). Tech stocks in general will become overvalued by the end of the year.

- Gold to rise slightly past $1000.

As far as a hummer in Florida goes, I'm hearing that sales activity from middle-easterners is picking up there, particularly in the $1.8-3M range. Still, there are too many critters there for my taste. (People get queasy feeding pigs to their pet pythons and let them go; people have also abandoned monitor lizards. Not to mention the regular issues with alligators, rattlesnakes, cottonmouths, etc.) But a Hummer? Only to tow your Mazerati.

Hope you're well!

[Johnson&Johnson]

Yia Sou Dinos

Sick as a dog the last few days, not much fun. Had to delay my USA trip for a bit til I get over this cough thing.

Oh boy predictions, predicitons... I've been burned with those before, I'm always 2 years too early !

Euro - I think yes, 1.5 is about right for the year, but longer term do not be surprised if the dollar falls much, much further. Sterling is also toast. I expect a nice big drop all through 2008, already started during the last quarter of 2007 and it will go much further. I heard a funny idea from a currency trader friend of mine. He thinks sterling will go so low as to be on par 1-1 with the Euro, then 'Crash' Gordon will strong arm the public into joining the Euro. Don't know how outlandish this theory is, but nowadays you never know.

Crude - definetly up. I have no qualms with your prediction of $140 at all. But I think the speculative premium will be blown off the top and oil will fall back to around 70-80 usd per barrel after this year.

Natural Gas - agree, although I am not too wised up on the gas markets.

US Housing Market - Down down down. It's still way too early to buy. Most ARMs' reset by 2nd quarter 2008 if I understand correctly, so 2008 will be the eye of the storm, 2009-2010 the market will bump along the bottom, then flatline for a while before recovery in 2012-2014

UK Housing - the bubble has burst. Falls for the last three months ! Down 10% minimum in 2008, no question about it. Cyprus follows this year - or I eat my hat ! First to go to the wall will be the small and medium sized developers.

Gold - definetly up. This is a good play for the next few years, together with silver and of course junior miners.

Just kidding regarding the hummer and pad in Florida. I actually hate those things. But my point is that US assets will depreciate so much over the next few years, that every two-bit European with a copy of Financial Sense tucked under his arm will be cherry picking.

Hope you aren't too cold out there. How is the home inspection business holding up these days ?

.. take care

[dinos]

Here's a couple of good ones:



Ah, the good ole' home inspection business...Well, a significant number of homes on LI are in the 450K-1M range; above the 417K cutoff where conventional mortgages end and jumbo mortgages begin. The spread between the two is about a full percentage point which adds hundreds of dollars to monthly payments. So, with most people not having 20% to put down, they either have to wait and save (yeah, right!), try for 10% down and hope the bank will accept them, leave, or (again) try playing around with piggy-back loans. Either way, business is slowing this year.

The bright side (if you can call it that) lies with the potential for foreclosures coming on the market. The bulk of this action will be starting in 2009, but there are some out there now. Thing is, foreclosures SUCK. An example is a place I did in Queens last year. The toilets were not functioning, and instead of fixing the problem, the inhabitants were eliminating in the bathtub, which had become clogged. A look in the tub revealed maggots feeding actively. Interestingly, there was an umbrella next to the range in the kitchen. Its purpose became apparent quickly as a steady stream of German cockroaches were falling from a crack in the ceiling over the range - the lady of the house was using the umbrella to keep the roaches out of the food as she cooked! The smell was so revolting throughout the house that I think I felt my throat swell shut a couple of times (with a respirator on) and had to go outside for air.

This brings me to the better houses. And while I don't blow issues out of proportion, I also won't mince my words. With the cushy job they had the past few years, real-estate agents now have to address objections on the homes that didn't occur with all the bidding wars a couple years ago and this drives them crazy. A lot of them are getting desperate and some have flat-out said that they don't want certain issues disclosed to buyers, or, if so, disclosed in a way that understates the problem. The realtors have no liability, and I have insurance - so as far as they're concerned, it's reasonable for me to get sued as long as they make their money. But this type of attitude even extends to issues that can be harmful to the health of the buyers. For example, I found a CO issue in one home that was enough to make people sick (though not lethal). The fix is usually no big deal - clean the boiler and move on. But the buyers backed out and the real-estate agents blamed me for losing their sale. They knew I didn't cause the issue but they would've preferred it to remain undisclosed. They don't care - some want their money and sod anybody else. It's not to say that all real estate agents are bad, but they are among the least trusted professions (even less than lawyers) by the public, and they are referring inspectors for their deals (which is how I get most of my referrals). I'm surprised this is allowed to continue.

While business is slowing, I'm very fortunate to have identified and avoided jerks that would cost me millions of dollars in lawsuits and my reputation is intact.

BTW, the pics I posted came from The Big Picture - one of the most respected financial blogs out there: http://bigpicture.typepad.com.

How are things with you?

[Johnson&Johnson]

That place in Queens sounds like a right sh*thole ! Cockroaches falling out of the ceiling ? You got to be kidding me. Shouldn't they just bulldoze the whole place and start fresh ?

Man, I hate cockraoches... Serious phobia...

(by the way, is that cool Greek bar still there in Astoria opposite the studios on 35th ? Then one that used to be a Puerto Rican owned carpet shop ?)

I was reading somewhere that Cleveland is the epicenter of the present subprime mortgage crisis. Apparently you can pick up a 3 bedroom house in some parts of the rust belt for $10,000 (less than £4000 Cyprus pounds).

I saw this today and while I have my doubts about the figures quoted, it rings true:

----------

DISY: Cypriots the most in debt in EU
First Published: 09/01/2008 14:08:49
Stockwatch News

“The perception that the Cypriot citizens have more money is a myth”, DISY President, Averof Neophytou stated on Wednesday. Speaking at a press conference, Mr. Neophytou said that the Cypriot households are the most in debt in the EU, since they owe an average €70,000. “The private debt in Cyprus stands at €29.7 billion and corresponds to 204% of GDP. The Cypriots’ loans are double that the EU average. It is worth noting that in the past two years, the households’ debts increased by 30.1% and this means that the accumulated debts recorded an increase of €3.6 billion”, he said.

According to Mr. Neophytou, the housing loans stand at 44.1% of GDP (€6.4 billion). In the past two years, the total Cypriots’ debts in housing loans climbed 63.5%, the highest increase in the EU, excluding the ex-communist countries. The debts for housing purposes increased from €3.9 billion in November 2005 to €6.4 billion in October.

“Cypriots turn to borrowing to finance their consumer needs more than any other European citizen. The consumer loans as GDP percentage stand at 20%, triple than the EU average. The total consumer loans stand at €3 billion. If we compare countries with similar income per capita, we wee that Cypriots owe much more (quadruple) than the average EU worker”, he concluded.

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Stay Greek,

[dinos]

Regarding Cleveland, there are bank-owned properties as low as $4,000 (for a duplex). http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp and look in Ohio.

I can honestly say I'm taken aback. But hey - you can have this gem for $30,000 (note the matching paint at the window boards and the house ):


It might need "some interior work" (i.e. a nuclear bomb), buy the roof is new.

Regarding the consumer debt thing, it's a shame that salaries are so low in Cyprus. Part of it is keeping up with the neighbors; trying to look rich when you haven't got the money will break anyone. But with 1200 pounds being a 'good' salary there, I wonder why? I think that people on the island deserve better opportunities. Without being inside on this, my opinion would be no better than speculation as to exactly what could be done.

Any case, I haven't been to Astoria in a while - once I do, I'll let you know if the bar's still there. Hope you're feeling better!

PS - that Queens house was indeed torn down.

[dinos]

Quick thing, J&J - I followed the countrywide link to houses in Detroit and found that several single family "dwellings" are on sale for under $1,000. Detroit's reputation as an absolute sh!t-hole is firmly in place. God - I shudder to think what a $500 house looks like.

The bright side in all this, of course, is that neither of us has to visit Detroit (I hope)...

[Johnson&Johnson]

Actually I have to plead guilty, having been to Detroit several times. You are right, it's a shithole, apart from some downtown areas that have been regenerated.

Those prices are crazy. I'm sure there must be some vulture funds somewhere who are going to buy them up, bulldoze the houses and 'gentrify' the area in anticipation of an upswing later on. Who knows, with the dollar falling, maybe some manufacturing will return to the rust belt ? What do you think ? Surely the whole Midwest cannot just turn into one massive garage sale.

I know what you mean about the Cypriots. I mean, they love to show off. It's the peasant mentality (and I am not being a condescending prick here, I am also from peasant stock, and proud of it), they have to buy all the latest clothes/ designer labels and expensive cars to prove to one another that they are no longer shoveling goat shit in some village in Pitsillia.

Personally, I find the act of shoveling goat shit gratifying, and I engage in it often, as it makes excellent fertilizer for vines. I also like pruning my olive trees, making Zivania in my still and butchering the odd pig (I would like to move to the village fulltime but the wife will just not go)

I do not see what is so shameful and dirty about our identity that we have to smother ourselves in Gucci and pretend we are something we are not. We are Cypriots, for God's sake, not more than one generation out of the hills and it amuses me to see all these nouveau riche wannabes pretending to be Italian socialites. We should embrace our identity, not be ashamed of it.

I digress... bit of a rant there, but it's something I feel strongly about. People out here have become spoilt, everything is mummy and daddy and they have no heart or guts to stand on their own. We have girls in my office earning 600 pounds a month, and they think nothing of buying a belt for 150 pounds or a pair of boots for nearly twice that. Their mothers usually look after their kids so they can work fulltime to finance their consumption, and if they fall short of money they just tap the parents or the in-laws for a few c's.

One girl I know actually kicked her parents out of their own home, knocked it down, and built a huge concrete palace in its place (financed by the parents themselves of course). Where did the parents go live ? She built them a shed at the bottom of the garden. How disgusting is that ? And this behavior is by all means typical here.

I could imagine trying to pull something like that on my old man, he would probably shoot me in the head, and he would be perfectly right to do so.

Yes I am feeling better now thanks, maybe I'll even hit the gym tonight for a bit of sparring and some bagwork.

Are you on facebook by any chance ?

[dinos]

Yea, I'm in the process of setting up a facebook account. I've got a few things to take care of, find a decent pic, etc. Will PM the addy when done - more to follow.

Otherwise, a friend in Detroit painted a really bad picture of the place the other day. Basically, workers are afraid of the criminals so they don't like working on any of those houses, most of the materials (and piping in the houses) get stolen, any guard dogs just get maced, the police are either on the take or terrified and take hours to respond to calls, etc. She went on to mention that Cleveland has some parts that make Detroit look high class.

NY looks better and better every day! Cheers...