Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

The international court, I assume you mean the ECHR is trying to get itself out of a situation where it is inundated with lawsuits by GCs. The court ruled in past cases that Turkey, as an occupying power, is liable for preventing possession and enjoyment of the lands of GCs who sued. Now it is discussing the legality of the lands commission set up by the TRNC government. But the point is not whether people can be compensated, the remedies are not for compensation, they are "in rem", the return of the thing (the land) itself. The TRNC has no power to ask the Turkish army to provide such remedies. So the situation is pending till the final hearings of the first test cases.

The oil is an interesting one. If there is oil in the south of the island then Turkey will have to decide its policy on CYprus. If it is partition then that part is clearly within the jurisdiction of what Turkey calls the "Greek Cypriot Administration". If it is to be shared in common then partition will have to be abandoned as a policy in favor of a unitary state (bicommunal and biregional but still one state).

The problem though is first to find the oil and then bring it to the surface. Some parts of the Med in this region are 4000 meters deep! It is interesting also that the first country to remind Turkey that Cyprus has a right to exploit its oil resources was the USA. Considering that some of the companies involved are American and that the US 6th fleet has more firepower in the Med than all coastal states combine, it is a serious statement.

[Talisker]

The international court, I assume you mean the ECHR is trying to get itself out of a situation where it is inundated with lawsuits by GCs. The court ruled in past cases that Turkey, as an occupying power, is liable for preventing possession and enjoyment of the lands of GCs who sued. Now it is discussing the legality of the lands commission set up by the TRNC government. But the point is not whether people can be compensated, the remedies are not for compensation, they are "in rem", the return of the thing (the land) itself. The TRNC has no power to ask the Turkish army to provide such remedies. So the situation is pending till the final hearings of the first test cases.

The oil is an interesting one. If there is oil in the south of the island then Turkey will have to decide its policy on CYprus. If it is partition then that part is clearly within the jurisdiction of what Turkey calls the "Greek Cypriot Administration". If it is to be shared in common then partition will have to be abandoned as a policy in favor of a unitary state (bicommunal and biregional but still one state).

The problem though is first to find the oil and then bring it to the surface. Some parts of the Med in this region are 4000 meters deep! It is interesting also that the first country to remind Turkey that Cyprus has a right to exploit its oil resources was the USA. Considering that some of the companies involved are American and that the US 6th fleet has more firepower in the Med than all coastal states combine, it is a serious statement.

Those Americans can sniff out the prospect of oil from a long distance! I agree - this could be the bargaining tool the GCs need, but in addition to the possible political gains they must be careful the benefits of the oil are not lost to another nation (says the Scotsman, referring to the UK benefit from North Sea oil off the Scottish coast.........).

[Nikitas]

Losing the benefit, well a major part of it anyway, to another nation is inevitable, unless you have the technical means to exploit the oil yourself. This much you know from the North Sea experience. And Cyprus obviously does not have those means. If there is oil, and I doubt it, then the pressure will come from within, from TCs who own land in the southwest of the island and will want to return there. This will send the whole TRNC structure tumbling down as most areas owned by TCs are in the southwest and the land is legally theirs. They only need to reside permanently in the RoC to repossess it.

The result would be a mixed GC TC population in the south living off the business generated by oil while in the north they will be settlers pretending that they are CYpriots. But this is if oil is found and that is a very big if.

I often try to imagine how it would be if Cyprus became oil rich. Whether we would act like sybaritic potentates or we would try and be less ostentatious consumers. The Cypriot attitude being what it is I can see gold plated Mercedeses speeding along the Nicosia Limassol highway!

[Talisker]

Losing the benefit, well a major part of it anyway, to another nation is inevitable, unless you have the technical means to exploit the oil yourself. This much you know from the North Sea experience. And Cyprus obviously does not have those means. If there is oil, and I doubt it, then the pressure will come from within, from TCs who own land in the southwest of the island and will want to return there. This will send the whole TRNC structure tumbling down as most areas owned by TCs are in the southwest and the land is legally theirs. They only need to reside permanently in the RoC to repossess it.

The result would be a mixed GC TC population in the south living off the business generated by oil while in the north they will be settlers pretending that they are CYpriots. But this is if oil is found and that is a very big if.

I often try to imagine how it would be if Cyprus became oil rich. Whether we would act like sybaritic potentates or we would try and be less ostentatious consumers. The Cypriot attitude being what it is I can see gold plated Mercedeses speeding along the Nicosia Limassol highway!

I know what you mean about ostentatiousness, and can see the gleaming Mercs. Having considered the oil option and it's effect on TC migration south - I've often wondered about the GC strategy in allowing easy movement of TCs across the 'border'. I know this has been reciprocated more recently by the TCs, but surely if a major part of the pressure applied to TCs was through 'international exclusion' then this opportunity to come south relieves/negates that pressure?

[zan]

Losing the benefit, well a major part of it anyway, to another nation is inevitable, unless you have the technical means to exploit the oil yourself. This much you know from the North Sea experience. And Cyprus obviously does not have those means. If there is oil, and I doubt it, then the pressure will come from within, from TCs who own land in the southwest of the island and will want to return there. This will send the whole TRNC structure tumbling down as most areas owned by TCs are in the southwest and the land is legally theirs. They only need to reside permanently in the RoC to repossess it.

The result would be a mixed GC TC population in the south living off the business generated by oil while in the north they will be settlers pretending that they are CYpriots. But this is if oil is found and that is a very big if.

I often try to imagine how it would be if Cyprus became oil rich. Whether we would act like sybaritic potentates or we would try and be less ostentatious consumers. The Cypriot attitude being what it is I can see gold plated Mercedeses speeding along the Nicosia Limassol highway!

I know what you mean about ostentatiousness, and can see the gleaming Mercs. Having considered the oil option and it's effect on TC migration south - I've often wondered about the GC strategy in allowing easy movement of TCs across the 'border'. I know this has been reciprocated more recently by the TCs, but surely if a major part of the pressure applied to TCs was through 'international exclusion' then this opportunity to come south relieves/negates that pressure?

Bravo....

[Nikitas]

Talisker,

Money is a BIG inducer of behavioral changes!!!! If you had a piece of property suddenly worth millions, and the chance to live well off it, if not on it, then you would have a great incentive to to do so.

The times have changed. In the EU it is not possible to revert to the 1963 strife. And not many would want to, not if oil money is pouring in.

Look at how TCs flock to IKEA. I am not at all condescending about the store, I visit it too here in Athens because prices offset the headache it gives me. TCs need furniture bargains they cannot find in the north and they come south. Oil would be similar in process but the magnitude would be vast.

The political repercussions of oil would sweep many politicians aside, both in the north and the south. As a national asset belonging to the state, and exploited by foreigners, not locals, it would not be as easy to manipulate for the rich as land is. Everyone will want their fair share. One good thing about oil is it has no room for "developers".

[Talisker]

Talisker,

Money is a BIG inducer of behavioral changes!!!! If you had a piece of property suddenly worth millions, and the chance to live well off it, if not on it, then you would have a great incentive to to do so.

The times have changed. In the EU it is not possible to revert to the 1963 strife. And not many would want to, not if oil money is pouring in.

Look at how TCs flock to IKEA. I am not at all condescending about the store, I visit it too here in Athens because prices offset the headache it gives me. TCs need furniture bargains they cannot find in the north and they come south. Oil would be similar in process but the magnitude would be vast.

The political repercussions of oil would sweep many politicians aside, both in the north and the south. As a national asset belonging to the state, and exploited by foreigners, not locals, it would not be as easy to manipulate for the rich as land is. Everyone will want their fair share. One good thing about oil is it has no room for "developers".

Yes, but do you think the strategy to allow TCs to come south (to purchase from IKEA amongst other activities) was wise from a GC political perspective?

[Nikitas]

Yes, definitely wise because it allows people of a generation that lived totally separated to see each other from in normal day to day activities and not set piece demonstrations. This is what builds trust.

Also the TCs are citizens of the RoC and have every right to travel everywhere freely, seek all the benefits of citizens, repossess their property and seek employment. I found it encouraging that a few TCs have started businesses in the south and more than afew traders come to the south to sell their produce. A speical VAT system has been set up for those day sellers.

In addition to building trust this shows a certain confidence by the RoC in itself and that is a good thing.

[Talisker]

Yes, definitely wise because it allows people of a generation that lived totally separated to see each other from in normal day to day activities and not set piece demonstrations. This is what builds trust.

Also the TCs are citizens of the RoC and have every right to travel everywhere freely, seek all the benefits of citizens, repossess their property and seek employment. I found it encouraging that a few TCs have started businesses in the south and more than afew traders come to the south to sell their produce. A speical VAT system has been set up for those day sellers.

In addition to building trust this shows a certain confidence by the RoC in itself and that is a good thing.

Good lateral thinking! I hope it works.........

[fanourıo]

So after 7 , 8 pages of posting what IS the GC stragedy for solving the problem? Answer: None! It simply does not PAY them or some of them to be more fair, to solve the problem. Now that there is a rumor about OIL, they DONT WANT to solve the problem and keep all possible findings to themselves. Hence NO at ANNAN PLAN and hence Papadopoullos wanting to remain president for yet another 5 years...