We know that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not confirm it but according to the impression we get from the developments, a new road map is being prepared for Cyprus in Ankara.
Firstly let us convey two fresh statements from the TRNC.
The first one is from the President Mehmet Ali Talat: Our policy is a partnership state fixed on the UN parameters, based on two equal founding states under the roof of federation, he stated.
The other one is from the deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs Turgay Avci: We will continue to work on until the Turkish Cypriots achieve days full of independence, freedom and prosperity.
Is it not strange that the President is saying a partnership state under the federal roof and the Minister of Foreign Affairs talks about independence?
It is strange but it is not contradictory. One is drawing up the framework of the initiative which is going to start next year; the other is showing the horizon after this initiative.
Again, according to our impression, two developments are expected for the issue of the application of the new road map.
The determining of the final status of Kosovo in the next month.
The outcome of the presidential elections in South Cyprus in February.
The solution in Kosovo as regards freezing of the diversities will be an inspiration; in fact it will be a precedent. As regards the outcome of the elections in South Cyprus they will make clear if the Greek Cypriots carry or not the unification desire.
Subtitle: Get the news from the Russians
The most important hint related to the new road map of Ankara, gave Leonid Abrambov (TR. Note: As written in the text) Russia’s Cyprus special envoy who made a series of talks recently in Ankara, Athens and Lefkosa. Turkey does not even want to hear the word 8th of July anymore, he said.
Abrambov, with the expression 8th of July means the document that Papadopoulos and Talat signed on the 8th of July 2006 with the efforts of Ibrahim Gambari, UN Secretary-Generals assistant (Now he is struggling with the Myanmar crisis). The two leaders had pledged this agreement from one side to solve the problems occurred in everyday life, and from the other side to establish committees for preparation for talks for the two sides which will lead to a comprehensive and permanent solution.
From that date on, no progress was achieved but Papadopoulos, started to put forward that the 8th of July document is a new beginning, meaning that the negotiations must start from zero.
As regards Turkey, she is supporting the contrary and is defending, as international law stipulates, that the negotiations must start from the point they were left. Where the point is the negotiations were left? Certainly the plan which was prepared by the former UN Secretary-General Koffi Annan and which at the referendums was accepted by the Turkish Cypriot side and was rejected by the Greek Cypriot side. The meaning: Either this plan will be put forward with minor changes and become the key for the solution, or else
The last date: The end of 2008
Here it is, Turkey in order to name or else, at the end of February 2008 will call the UN for a new initiative. But under one condition: Solution on the basis of the Annan Plan to be found the latest by the end of the year.
While the public opinion polls in South Cyprus show that Papadopoulos will win the elections with big difference, and while Papadopoulos stated that he will never accept the Annan Plan to be put on the negotiation table, either the UN will not dare to take a new initiative or with full knowledge of the disadvantageous consequences we can say that in a few months concrete diplomatic efforts will be tried.
Here it is, after this process, Turkey will take out the joker. Since a UN model union cannot be done, an EU model union should be tried. The meaning: First to part and after to be united within the EU structure. Like the Checks and the Slovaks. Like the Serbs and the Montenegrins, even like Kosovars. Was it not in this way that the EU membership was promised to the Serbs who were against Kosovos independence?
If we must put a name to the joker, the meaning of the two states solution comes.
The TRNC Minister of Foreign Affairs Turgay Avci meant this with the statements we have just mentioned above.
As a matter of fact, pressure on Turkey as regards Cyprus is almost stopped from the USA and the EU and it seems that they have prepared the international community for this probability or at the least such a solution will not surprise it a lot.
Cyprus is pregnant to very much surprise next year.
